Simulated circum-Arctic climate changes by the end of the 21st century

This study investigates future changes of the Arctic climate by the end of the 21st century, simulated by the regional climate model HIRHAM forced with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM general circulation model and assuming the SRES A1B emission scenario. This assessment provides the regional patterns of future circulation, temperature, and precipitation in the Arctic by the end of the 21st century. The magnitude of winter and summer temperature and precipitation is projected to increase, while their interannual variability is projected to change seasonally and is regionally dependent. The regional-scale response of the temperature and precipitation is associated with changes in storm tracks and atmospheric baroclinicity. During winter, the regions of strongest baroclinicity are shifted northward and strengthened. Changes in the seasonal temperature and precipitation are accompanied by changes in their extremes. Extreme warm and cold events are significantly projected to change, with relative changes of seasonal precipitation being larger than those of precipitation extremes.     

Uncertainties in climate change prediction: El Niño-Southern Oscillation and monsoons

The sensitivity of climate phenomena in the low latitudes to enhanced greenhouse conditions is a scientific issue of high relevance to billions of people in the poorest countries of the globe. So far, most studies dealt with individual model results. In the present analysis, we refer to 79 coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations from 12 different climate models under 6 different IPCC scenarios. The basic question is as to what extent various state-of-the-art climate models agree in predicting changes in the main features of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the monsoon climates in South Asia and West Africa. The individual model runs are compared with observational data in order to judge whether the spatio-temporal characteristics of ENSO are well reproduced. The model experiments can be grouped into multi-model ensembles. Thus, climate change signals in the classical index time series, in the principal components and in the time series of interannual variability can be evaluated against the background of internal variability and model uncertainty.There are large differences between the individual model predictions until the end of the 21st century, especially in terms of monsoon rainfall and the Southern Oscillation index (SOI). The majority of the models tends to project La Niña-like anomalies in the SOI and an intensification of the summer monsoon precipitation in India and West Africa. However, the response barely exceeds the level of natural variability and the systematic intermodel variations are larger than the impact of different IPCC scenarios. Nonetheless, there is one prominent climate change signal, which stands out from model variations and internal noise: All forced model experiments agree in predicting a substantial warming in the eastern tropical Pacific. This oceanic heating does not necessarily lead to a modification of ENSO towards more frequent El Niño and/or La Niña events. It simply represents a change in the background state of ENSO. Indeed, we did not find convincing multi-model evidence for a modification of the wavelet spectra in terms of ENSO or the monsoons. Some models suggest an intensification of the annual cycle but this signal is fairly model-dependent. Thus, large model uncertainty still exists with respect to the future behaviour of climate in the low latitudes. This has to be taken into account when addressing climate change signals in individual model experiments and ensembles.     

The history of environmental change and adaptation in eastern Saloum–Senegal—Driving forces and perceptions

Environmental change in the Sahel–Sudan zone of West Africa has been a major issue in development debates over the last decades. Using remote sensing based land cover change analysis, archival data, national and international statistical data, and household interviews, we analyze the drivers of environmental change in Eastern Saloum in Central East Senegal as well as the local perceptions of these changes and adaptation. Being part of the ground nut basin, Eastern Saloum has witnessed rapid environmental degradation caused by the conversion of forest and savanna areas to agricultural land during the last 20–30 years and by a combination of decline in precipitation, soil degradation, a diversity of policies with little concern for the environment, fluctuating markets and population pressure. Farmers perceive the environmental change mainly as land degradation and poor soil fertility, though recent extensification of agriculture counters this effect and has led to increased vegetation cover in marginal areas. They identified erratic climate, agricultural policies, insufficient food production and desire to increase income as the main drivers of change in the area. We conclude that while climate variability has influenced environmental change in the area, various types of State interventions in agriculture and global market fluctuations appear to have been the main underlying causes of environmental degradation.     

Detection of high-energy solar neutrons and protons by ground level detectors on April 15, 2001

In association with the large solar flare of April 15, 2001, the Chacaltaya neutron monitor observed a 3.6σ enhancement of the counting rate between 13:51 and 14:15 UT. Since the enhancement was observed beginning 11 min before the GLE, solar neutrons must be involved in this enhancement. The integral energy spectrum of solar neutrons can be expressed by a simple power law in energy with the index γ=-3.0±1.0. On the other hand, an integral energy spectrum of solar protons has been obtained in the energy range between 650 MeV and 12 GeV. The spectrum can also be expressed by a power law with the power index γ=-2.75±0.15. The flux of solar protons observed at Chacaltaya (at 12 GeV) was already one order less than the flux of the galactic cosmic rays. It may be the first simultaneous observation of the energy spectra of both high-energy protons and neutrons. Comparing the Yohkoh soft X-ray telescope images with the observed particle time profiles, an interesting picture of the particle acceleration mechanism has been deduced.     

The Ascraeus Mons fan-shaped deposit: Volcano-ice interactions and the climatic implications of cold-based tropical mountain glaciation

Amazonian-aged fan-shaped deposits extending to the northwest of each of the Tharsis Montes in the Tharsis region on Mars have been interpreted to have originated from mass-wasting, volcanic, tectonic and/or glacial processes. We use new data from MRO, MGS, and Odyssey to characterize these deposits. Building on recent evidence for cold-based glacial activity at Pavonis Mons and Arsia Mons, we interpret the smaller Ascraeus fan-shaped deposit to be of glacial origin. Our geomorphological assessment reveals a number of characteristics indicative of glacial growth and retreat, including: (1) a ridged facies, interpreted to be composed of drop moraines emplaced during episodic glacial advance and retreat, (2) a knobby facies, interpreted to represent vertical downwasting of the ice sheet, and (3) complex ridges showing a cusp-like structure. We also see evidence of volcano-ice interactions in the form of: (1) an arcuate inward-facing scarp, interpreted to have formed by the chilling of lava flows against the glacial margin, (2) a plateau feature, interpreted to represent a subglacial eruption, and (3) knobby facies superimposed on flat-topped flows with leveed channels, interpreted to be subglacial inflated lava flows that subsequently drained and are covered by glacial till. We discuss the formation mechanisms of these morphologies during cold-based glacial activity and concurrent volcanism. On the basis of a Mid- to Late-Amazonian age (250-380 Ma) established from crater size-frequency distribution data, we explore the climatic implications of recent glaciation at low latitudes on Mars. GCM results show that increased insolation to the poles at high obliquities (>45°) forces sublimation of polar ice, which is transported to lower latitudes and deposited on the flanks of the Tharsis Montes. We assess how local orographic effects, the mass balance of the glacier, and the position of equilibrium line altitudes, all played a role in producing the observed geomorphologies. In doing so, we outline a glacial history for the evolution of the Ascraeus Mons fan-shaped deposit and compare its initiation, growth and demise with those of Arsia Mons and Pavonis Mons.     

PFS/MEX observations of the condensing CO2 south polar cap of Mars

The condensing CO₂ south polar cap of Mars and the mechanisms of the CO₂ ice accumulation have been studied through the analysis of spectra acquired by the Planetary Fourier Spectrometer (PFS) during the first two years of ESA's Mars Express (MEX) mission. This dataset spans more than half a martian year, from Ls∼330° to Ls∼194°, and includes the southern fall season which is found to be extremely important for the study of the residual south polar cap asymmetry. The cap expands symmetrically and with constant speed during the fall season. The maximum extension occurs sometime in the 80°-90° Ls range, when the cap edges are as low as −40° latitude. Inside Hellas and Argyre basins, frost can be stable at lower latitudes due to the higher pressure values, causing the seasonal cap to be asymmetric. Within the seasonal range considered in this paper, the cap edge recession rate is approximately half the rate at which the cap edge expanded. The longitudinal asymmetries reduce during the cap retreat, and disappear around Ls∼145°. Two different mechanisms are responsible for CO₂ ice accumulation during the fall season, especially in the 50°-70° Ls range. Here, CO₂ condensation in the atmosphere, and thus precipitation, is allowed exclusively in the western hemisphere, and particularly in the longitudinal corridor of the perennial cap. In the eastern hemisphere, the cap consists mainly of CO₂ frost deposits, as a consequence of direct vapor deposition. The differences in the nature of the surface ice deposits are the main cause for the residual south polar cap asymmetry. Results from selected PFS orbits have also been compared with the results provided by the martian general circulation model (GCM) of the Laboratoire de Météorologie dynamique (LMD) in Paris, with the aim of putting the observations in the context of the global circulation. This first attempt of cross-validation between PFS measurements and the LMD GCM on the one hand confirms the interpretation of the observations, and on the other hand shows that the climate modeling during the southern polar night on Mars is extremely sensitive to the dynamical forcing.     

玉龙雪山冰川变化对ENSO事件的响应

应用独立性检验方法就ENSO事件对我国云南丽江地区降水、温度和冰川变化影响进行了相关分析. 结果表明丽江降水与ENSO事件有密切关系, MEI值为负时下一年降水量增加, MEI正值与下一年降水量减少相对应. 丽江气温与ENSO事件关系显著, MEI值为负时下一年气温降低, MEI正值与下一年气温增加对应. 利用夏季降水量和气温设计了冰川积累量指数并与MEI进行对比分析, 发现当年MEI值与下一年的冰川积累指数存在一定相关关系, 并影响未来的冰川的变化, MEI为正时冰川将会退缩, MEI值为负时冰川将会前进.     

论中国大陆复杂和混杂的碰撞带构造

中国大陆碰撞带是以结构复杂、形成过程复杂和物质成分趋于混杂为主要特征的。在构造特征上 ,表现为由构造岩片和混杂岩带所组成 ,形成扇状褶皱和对冲型逆掩断层。在剖面上常形成楔状(鳄鱼式 )构造 ,在平面上可构成嵌入构造 ,它们其实是两个板块在碰撞过程中互相挤压、缩短与穿插的、一个统一的三维共轭剪切断裂系统中的不同表现形式。绝大多数中国大陆碰撞带都不是一次形成的 ,而是经历了多期次、活动性质各不相同的、复杂的形成过程。为了进一步提高碰撞带的研究水平 ,应该把碰撞带及其两侧的板块当作一个整体来进行综合研究 ,应该大力加强碰撞带周邻板块的沉积古地理、生物古地理、古地磁学、地球化学和构造变形、变位资料的系统研究。碰撞作用时期是元素、岩石和构造单元趋于混杂的时期 ,而不是有利于元素、物质的分异和富集。碰撞带的主碰撞期形成的矿床是十分有限的。笔者推测有 4种类型的矿床可能将成为西部古碰撞带地区找矿的主要目标。     

下三叠统鲕粒灰岩中微生物矿化组构特征及意义 ——以川东北地区飞仙关组为例

PTB全球最大生物灭绝事件后,早三叠世被认为是微生物发育繁殖的黄金时期,浅水环境是微生物活动及微生物岩形成的最有利环境。借助高分辨率扫描电镜和能谱分析,在川东北地区开江—梁平海槽西侧下三叠统飞仙关组浅水碳酸盐岩台地边缘的鲕粒灰岩中发现了三种微生物矿化组构:空腔状微生物矿化组构、显微瘤状微生物矿化组构和纤状微生物矿化组构;通过沉积学、岩石学及地球化学的综合分析,认为显微瘤状微生物矿化组构是微生物新陈代谢时形成的纳米球状云质颗粒,纤状微生物矿化组构是微生物的胞外聚合物,而空腔状微生物矿化组构则属于微生物个体。这些微生物矿化组构的发现,为早三叠世微生物大爆发提供了一定的直观证据;推测大量的微生物活动是早三叠世碳酸盐快速沉积现象的直接诱因,并导致于二叠纪末发育的克拉通内裂陷——开江—梁平海槽在早三叠世被快速填平。     

青藏高原海拔要素对温度、降水和气候型分布格局的影响

青藏高原平均海拔4 000~5 000 m,由于特殊的地理条件,生态环境较为脆弱,对气候变化非常敏感,并对周围乃至全球的气候产生重要影响。使用1961-2010年青藏高原温度、降水0.5°×0.5°格点数据,以及由GTOPO30数据（分辨率为0.05°×0.05°）经过重采样生成的陆地0.5°×0.5°的数字高程模型DEM,分析了青藏高原温度、降水受海拔要素的影响,并通过青藏高原区域79个气象站的数据进行验证,进而使用柯本气候分类和中国自然地理区划两种方法对青藏高原气候进行划分,探讨青藏高原各分区海拔要素对温度、降水的影响差异以及出现差异的原因。研究表明：青藏高原及其各分区的气温垂直递减率不同,是由于地形起伏不同造成的青藏高原热源效用不同;降水与海拔的关系不同,是由于各区域受控于不同的气候系统,造成干湿度的不同,因而最大降水高度带不同。