Development and Utilization of the World’s and China’s Bulk Mineral Resources and their Supply and Demand Situation in the Next Twenty Years

Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world’s and China’s economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their resources base and potential, development and utilization and their world’s and China’s supply and demand situation in the future 20 years. The supply and demand of these six bulk mineral products are generally balanced, with a slight surplus, which will guarantee the stability of the international mineral commodity market supply. The six mineral resources(especially iron ores and copper ores) are abundant and have a great potential, and their development and utilization scale will gradually increase. Till the end of 2014, the reserveproduction ratio of iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc ores and potassium salt was 95 years, 42 years, 100 years, 17 years, 37 years and 170 years, respectively. Except lead ores, the other five types all have reserve-production ratio exceeding 20 years, indicative of a high resources guarantee degree. If the utilization of recycled metals is counted in, the supply of the world’s six mineral products will exceed the demand in the future twenty years. In 2015–2035, the supply of iron ores, refined copper, primary aluminum, refined lead, zinc and potassium salt will exceed their demand by 0.4–0.7 billion tons(Gt), 5.0–6.0 million tons(Mt), 1.1–8.9 Mt, 1.0–2.0 Mt, 1.2–2.0 Mt and 4.8–5.6 Mt, respectively. It is predicted that there is no problem with the supply side of bulk mineral products such as iron ores, but local or structural shortage may occur because of geopolitics, monopoly control, resources nationalism and trade friction. Affected by China’s compressed industrialized development model, the demand of iron ores(crude steel), potassium salt, refined lead, refined copper, bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc will gradually reach their peak in advance. The demand peak of iron ores(crude steel) will reach around 2015, 2016 for potassium salt, 2020 for refined lead, 2021 for bauxite(primary aluminum), 2022 for refined copper and 2023 for zinc. China’s demand for iron ores(crude steel), bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc in the future 20 years will decline among the world’s demand, while that for refined copper, refined lead and potassium salt will slightly increase. The demand for bulk mineral products still remains high. In 2015–2035, China’s accumulative demand for iron ores(crude steel) will be 20.313 Gt(13.429 Gt), 0.304 Gt for refined copper, 2.466 Gt(0.616 Gt) of bauxite(primary aluminum), 0.102 Gt of refined lead, 0.138 Gt of zinc and 0.157 Gt of potassium salt, and they account for the world’s YOY(YOY) accumulative demand of 35.17%, 51.09%, 48.47%, 46.62%, 43.95% and 21.84%, respectively. This proportion is 49.40%, 102.52%, 87.44%, 105.65%, 93.62% and 106.49% of that in 2014, respectively. From the supply side of China’s bulk mineral resources, it is forecasted that the accumulative supply of primary(mine) mineral products in 2015–2035 is 4.046 Gt of iron ores, 0.591 Gt of copper,1.129 Gt of bauxite, 63.661 Mt of(mine) lead, 0.109 Gt of(mine) zinc and 0.128 Gt of potassium salt, which accounts for 8.82%, 13.92%, 26.67%, 47.09%, 33.04% and 15.56% of the world’s predicted YOY production, respectively. With the rapid increase in the smelting capacity of iron and steel and alumina, the rate of capacity utilization for crude steel, refined copper, alumina, primary aluminum and refined lead in 2014 was 72.13%, 83.63%, 74.45%, 70.76% and 72.22%, respectively. During 2000–2014, the rate of capacity utilization for China’s crude steel and refined copper showed a generally fluctuating decrease, which leads to an insufficient supply of primary mineral products. It is forecasted that the supply insufficiency of iron ores in 2015–2035 is 17.44 Gt, 0.245 Gt of copper in copper concentrates, 1.337 Gt of bauxite, 38.44 Mt of lead in lead concentrates and 29.19 Mt of zinc in zinc concentrates. China has gradually raised the utilization of recycled metals, which has mitigated the insufficient supply of primary metal products to some extent. It is forecasted that in 2015–2035 the accumulative utilization amount of steel scrap(iron ores) is 3.27 Gt(5.08 Gt), 70.312 Mt of recycled copper, 0.2 Gt of recycled aluminum, 48 Mt of recycled lead and 7.7 Mt of recycled zinc. The analysis on the supply and demand situation of China’s bulk mineral resources in 2015–2035 suggests that the supply-demand contradiction for these six types of mineral products will decrease, indicative of a generally declining external dependency. If the use of recycled metal amount is counted in, the external dependency of China’s iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc and potassium salt will be 79%, 65%, 26%, 8%, 16% and 18% in 2014, respectively. It is predicted that this external dependency will decrease to 62%, 64%, 20%,-0.93%, 16% and 14% in 2020, respectively, showing an overall decreasing trend. We propose the following suggestions correspondingly.(1) The demand peak of China’s crude steel and potassium salt will reach during 2015–2023 in succession. Mining transformation should be planned and deployed in advance to deal with the arrival of this demand peak.(2) The supply-demand contradiction of China’s bulk mineral resources will mitigate in the future 20 years, and the external dependency will decrease accordingly. It is suggested to adjust the mineral resources management policies according to different minerals and regions, and regulate the exploration and development activities.(3) China should further establish and improve the forced mechanism of resolving the smelting overcapacity of steel, refined copper, primary aluminum, lead and zinc to really achieve the goal of "reducing excess production capacity".(4) In accordance with the national strategic deployment of "One Belt One Road", China should encourage the excess capacity of steel, copper, alumina and primary aluminum enterprises to transfer to those countries or areas with abundant resources, high energy matching degree and relatively excellent infrastructure. Based on the national conditions, mining condition and geopolitics of the resources countries, we will gradually build steel, copper, aluminum and lead-zinc smelting bases, and potash processing and production bases, which will promote the excess capacity to transfer to the overseas orderly.(5) It is proposed to strengthen the planning and management of renewable resources recycling and to construct industrial base of renewable metal recycling.(6) China should promote the comprehensive development and utilization of paragenetic and associated mineral species to further improve the comprehensive utilization of bulk mineral resources.     

矿床成矿系列——五论矿床的成矿系列问题

矿床的成矿系列(简称成矿系列)是矿床学领域的一个理论性概念,由五级序次组成。矿床成矿系列是成矿系列的第二序次,是成矿系列的核心部分。矿床成矿系列的划分,以岩浆、沉积、变质、表生和流体(非岩浆-非变质成因流体)5种成矿作用为基本原则,以成矿地质环境为基础,结合成矿的时段与形成的矿床组合进行划分。本文对矿床成矿系列时空范围、时空组成结构、矿化强度与演化、成矿区带内不同矿床成矿系列之间的演化、叠加和复合作用及对指导找矿的意义进行了论述。     

加权Logistic回归模型在火山岩型铜矿预测中的应用:以宁芜盆地中段为例

文中探讨了加权Logistic回归模型在宁芜盆地中段火山岩型铜矿预测中的应用。首先,结合研究区的成矿地质背景,提取地质体、构造、围岩蚀变三大类证据因子;其次,分析各证据因子与铜矿点之间的空间关系,认为姑山旋回、娘娘山旋回火山机构控制了本区火山岩型铜矿的空间分布,根据计算结果,选取与火山岩型铜矿密切相关的龙王山组、姑山组地层,姑山旋回粗面斑岩、娘娘山旋回二长斑岩、NW向构造1.5 km缓冲区、NE向构造1.3 km缓冲区、EW向构造4.5 km缓冲区、硅化、褐铁矿化、黄铜矿化等作为模型自变量;最后采用加权Logistic回归模型进行成矿概率计算,并结合成矿地质背景,圈定四个成矿远景区,分别为P1、P2、P3、P4,其中P1、P2、P3呈北东向展布,主要受娘娘山和姑山火山机构控制,P4为东西向分布,主要受龙王山火山机构控制,在这些预测区中,均存在已发现的铜矿体,说明预测可信度较高。     

对华南矿产资源深部探测若干问题的探讨——以若干超大型矿床深部找矿突破为例

华南是中国近百年内矿产资源开发强度比较高的地区,形成了赣南钨矿、桂北锡矿、湘南铅锌矿等一大批老矿山。随着已探明资源的快速消耗,"深地"探测、深部找矿已是大势所趋。基于对华南不同地区、不同类型、不同企业矿山生产情况的了解,文章对矿产资源的深部探测问题,从探测的目标、理论、深度、程度、效益等诸方面加以探讨,认为:当前技术经济条件下,1坚持国家目标、科学目标和人才目标相结合的原则,宜灵活运用各种成矿理论,充分发挥"五层楼+地下室"等勘查模型的作用,把"层状含矿地质体"作为矿产资源深部探测的主要目标;2坚持从已知到未知和由浅入深的原则,重点在老矿区和浅部地质与矿产资源比较清楚的工作程度比较高的地区优先部署工作,既可以降低风险又可以满足现实需要;3宜坚持点面结合的原则,2000 m、3000 m乃至于5000 m深钻的部署,宜相应地部署在矿床、矿田和矿集区工作程度最高的地区,达到立体探测和"透明化"的目的;4坚持综合评价的原则,综合调查、综合评价、综合研究,学科也要综合,避免单打一,避免单学科冒进。以问题为导向,具体问题具体分析,注意合理的探测深度和工作程度,抓住关键,有针对性地布设工作量,才能取得成效。     

同步辐射软X射线吸收谱与发射谱测定天然针铁矿能带结构

天然半导体矿物由于成分、缺陷复杂,传统测试方法如紫外可见漫反射等难以准确测定其禁带宽度.本文以针铁矿为例,通过第一性原理计算得到纯针铁矿及掺Al针铁矿的电子结构.计算结果显示,纯针铁矿导带底与价带顶均由Fe3d与O2p轨道组成,而当含杂质Al时,Al2p与O2p发生杂化参与了价带组成.在此基础上,利用同步辐射X射线氧的K边吸收谱与发射谱对纯针铁矿及天然针铁矿的能带结构进行了测定.结果表明,天然含Al的针铁矿禁带宽度为2.30eV,小于纯针铁矿(2.57eV).本研究提供了一种测定天然氧化物矿物禁带宽度的新方法,为深入研究天然半导体可见光催化活性产生机制提供了理论依据.     

ASD地面光谱仪在新疆白杨河铀矿床蚀变信息研究中的应用

新疆白杨河铀矿床是我国目前已探明的中型矿床,矿床蚀变特征的研究有助于对白杨河矿床外围及深部找矿提出更好的找矿认识。使用ASD可见光-短波红外地面光谱仪对白杨河矿床地表以及钻孔岩心进行光谱测量,发现了矿床中蚀变矿物主要有高铝绢云母、中铝绢云母、低铝绢云母、绿泥石、蒙脱石、赤铁矿、褐铁矿等。矿床地表铀矿化异常地段主要发育高铝绢云母蚀变;钻孔岩心中铀矿化富集部位蚀变矿物组合为高铝绢云母、绿泥石、赤铁矿。研究结果可为矿床外围及深部铀矿勘探提供参考与借鉴。     

贵州威宁麻窝山岩溶盆地沉积物中粘土矿物特征及其古气候指示意义

利用X射线衍射等分析方法,对贵州威宁麻窝山岩溶盆地沉积物中粘土矿物进行研究,获得了粘土矿物的组成、相对含量、结晶度指数、化学指数以及相对含量比值等方面的信息,探讨该盆地的沉积环境演化特征。研究表明,粘土矿物以伊/蒙混层矿物(30%~75%)和绿泥石(10%~45%)为主,高岭石(5%~20%)和伊利石(10%)次之,基本不含蒙脱石。伊/蒙混层矿物和绿泥石含量呈负相关性。高岭石含量在剖面底部较稳定,在484cm上部出现较大的波动。伊利石结晶度和化学指数与伊/蒙混层矿物含量具有较好的正相关性,且在第Ⅰ阶段相对于其它指标较敏感,出现波动。通过综合对比分析,将研究区剖面划分为4个阶段,其是3个冷暖干湿的大循环和若干个小循环气候环境的物质记录。     

Axial friction response of full-scale pipes in soft clays

The axial friction response of subsea pipelines in soft clays is a very important aspect for designers of subsea pipelines but the response is not well understood so far. There is a pressing need for the comprehension of the response. In this paper, model tests are performed using full-scale pipes coated with polyethylene (PE) to study the effects of the set-up period, the pipe diameter, the buried depth of the pipe, the shear strength of soft clays and the loading rate on the axial friction response of pipelines in soft clays. The variations of the axial friction coefficient are analyzed using the effective stress method based on model test results. The results show that the axial friction resistance increases with the increasing pipe diameter but the effect of the pipe diameter on the axial friction coefficient can be neglected. The ultimate axial resistance also increases with the increase of the buried depth of pipelines, the undrained shear strength of soft clays and the loading rate. The axial friction coefficient increases with the increasing loading rate. However, the axial friction coefficient decreases with the increasing buried depth. The method to determine the axial friction coefficient is developed by analyzing model test results, which considers the effects of the diameter, the buried depth, the undrained shear strength of soft clays and the loading rate. The study results not only extend the industry data base but also supply a basis to determine the axial friction coefficient of PE-coated pipes in soft clays for ocean engineering geological investigations.     

Incremental elastoplastic FEM for simulating the deformation process of suction caissons subjected to cyclic loads in soft clays

This paper presents an incremental elastoplastic finite element method (FEM) to simulate the undrained deformation process of suction caisson foundations subjected to cyclic loads in soft clays. The method is developed by encoding the total-stress-based bounding surface model proposed by the authors in the ABAQUS software package. According to the model characteristics, elastoplastic stress states associated with the incremental strains of each iteration are determined using the sub-incremental explicit Euler algorithm, and the state parameters describing the cyclic accumulative rates of strains are updated by setting state variables during the calculations. The radial fallback method is also proposed to modify the stress states outside the bounding surface to the surface during determination of the elastoplastic stress states. The stress reversals of soil elements are judged by the angle between the incremental deviatoric stress and the exterior normal vector at the image stress point on the bounding surface to update the mapping centre and state variables during cyclic loading. To assess the general validity of the method, the reduced scale model tests and centrifuge tests of suction caissons subjected to cyclic loads are simulated using the method. Predictions are in relative good agreement with test results. Compared with the limit equilibrium and quasi-static methods, the method can not only determine the cyclic bearing capacity, but can also analyse the deformation process and the failure mechanisms of suction caisson under cyclic loads in soft clays.     

News from the seabed – Geological characteristics and resource potential of deep-sea mineral resources

Marine minerals such as manganese nodules, Co-rich ferromanganese crusts, and seafloor massive sulfides are commonly seen as possible future resources that could potentially add to the global raw materials supply. At present, a proper assessment of these resources is not possible due to a severe lack of information regarding their size, distribution, and composition. It is clear, however, that manganese nodules and Co-rich ferromanganese crusts are a vast resource and mining them could have a profound impact on global metal markets, whereas the global resource potential of seafloor massive sulfides appears to be small. These deep-sea mineral commodities are formed by very different geological processes resulting in deposits with distinctly different characteristics. The geological boundary conditions also determine the size of any future mining operations and the area that will be affected by mining. Similarly, the sizes of the most favorable areas that need to be explored for a global resource assessment are also dependent on the geological environment. Size reaches 38 million km² for manganese nodules, while those for Co-rich crusts (1.7 million km²) and massive sulfides (3.2 million km²) are much smaller. Moreover, different commodities are more abundant in some jurisdictions than in others. While only 19% of the favorable area for manganese nodules lies within the Exclusive Economic Zone of coastal states or is covered by proposals for the extension of the continental shelf, 42% of the favorable areas for massive sulfides and 54% for Co-rich crusts are located in EEZs.