基于EBA模型的中国碳排放稳健性影响因素研究

依据环境经济学理论,运用极值边界分析（the extreme bounds analysis, EBA）模型,拓展了Kaya恒等式,利用中国30个省际区域2001~2010年的面板数据,实证研究中国省际区域人均碳排放量“稳健性”的影响因素。结果表明,地方财政决算支出、产业结构、能源效率、能源消费结构、能源价格、客运量等6个因素对中国人均碳排放量具有抗干扰的“稳健性”显著影响,并根据实证结论提出了一些政策建议,如调整产业结构,控制高碳产业发展;优化能源消费结构,积极发展新能源和可再生能源;发展循环经济开发清洁技术,提高能源利用效率;提倡低碳生活,提倡低碳生活方式。这些建议为政府制定环境保护与经济发展政策提供经验证据和决策参考。     

基于RTTOV模式的大气二氧化碳反演参数敏感性分析

大气二氧化碳是开展全球气候变化和碳循环研究的关键数据。卫星遥感技术与模式模拟相结合的反演方法已成为获取该数据的重要手段,但模式输入参数本身的误差会对大气二氧化碳反演精度产生影响,须在反演算法设计中加以关注。本文利用RTTOV10快速辐射传输模式模拟Aqua/AIRS红外探测仪17个大气二氧化碳反演通道,计算了这些通道上大气顶出射辐射对温度廓线、臭氧廓线、水汽廓线、地表温度和地表发射率的参数误差的不确定性,并与二氧化碳增加0.5%时造成的不确定性进行对比,分析二氧化碳对上述参数误差的敏感性。结果表明,温度廓线误差是干扰AIRS大气二氧化碳反演的主要因素,其次是臭氧廓线误差,而水汽廓线、地表温度和地表发射率的误差对二氧化碳反演的影响在除去个别通道后可忽略不计。最后,本文以通道为单位,确定了各通道上的高敏感参数、敏感参数和不敏感参数,为二氧化碳反演通道的选择和反演算法的设计提供了参考。     

基于结构分解法的北京能源碳排放增量分析(英文)

确保减碳的首要任务是定量测度化石能源消费碳排放的增量影响因素及其大小。为分析北京市1997-2007年的碳排放增量,本文构建了一个扩展的(调入、进口)竞争型经济—能源—碳排放投入产出模型,从整体特征、不同产业、工业行业3个方面,对1997-2007年北京能源消费的碳排放增量进行了结构分解。分析发现:经济规模增长要素(消费、投资、调出和出口等)是拉动碳排放增长的主导因素,能源强度变动效应却是碳减排的决定性因素;在规模扩张因素中,消费和调出超过投资和出口,是碳排放增长的主要贡献者;2002以来新一轮"高碳"特征的工业化导致CO2排量呈急增之势;产业结构调整、三产比重最大使得服务业成为碳排放增长的最大部门,但工业排放的增长却后来居上;碳增排的重点行业是高能耗业,而碳减排的却是能源工业;两时段各效应在不同产业、不同工业行业的影响方向和大小不一。     

北京大气中主要温室气体近10年变化趋势

对1993～2002年10年间北京市大气中三种主要温室气体的监测数据进行分析,研究二氧化碳、甲烷和氧化亚氮这三种温室气体浓度的变化趋势,并初步探讨了造成这种变化的原因.分析结果表明:北京市大气二氧化碳浓度总体是上升趋势,且后5年增长较快;大气甲烷浓度前5年缓慢上升,后5年转为下降,总体已是下降趋势;与大气二氧化碳变化趋势相似,大气氧化亚氮总体也是上升趋势,后5年增长较快.     

Greenhouse gases and greenhouse effect

Conventional theory of global warming states that heating of atmosphere occurs as a result of accumulation of CO₂ and CH₄ in atmosphere. The writers show that rising concentration of CO₂ should result in the cooling of climate. The methane accumulation has no essential effect on the Earth’s climate. Even significant releases of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide into the atmosphere do not change average parameters of the Earth’s heat regime and the atmospheric greenhouse effect. Moreover, CO₂ concentration increase in the atmosphere results in rising agricultural productivity and improves the conditions for reforestation. Thus, accumulation of small additional amounts of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere as a result of anthropogenic activities has practically no effect on the Earth’s climate.     

青藏高原乌丽冻土区二氧化碳成因探讨

为了查明青藏高原乌丽冻土区天然气的组分与成因,对采集自乌丽水合物试验孔ZK1井及其周边钻孔的岩心顶空气、岩心解析气以及湖水气进行了组分和碳同位素测试分析,同时对ZK1井及其周边钻孔岩心中的碳酸盐岩碳同位素进行了测试分析。测试结果显示:该区天然气主要成分为二氧化碳,其含量在98%以上,烃类气体(主要为甲烷)含量很少;二氧化碳碳同位素主频在-4‰～-6‰(VPDB)之间,少量富烃样品的甲烷碳同位素主频介于-3238‰～-2782‰（VPDB）之间,碳酸盐岩的碳同位素平均值为-387‰（VPDB）。综合分析认为,研究区二氧化碳主要为幔源成因,可能与该区强烈的构造运动和岩浆活动有关。     

Effects of soil compaction,rain exposure and their interaction on soil carbon dioxide emission

Soils release more carbon, primarily as carbon dioxide (CO₂), per annum than current global anthropogenic emissions. Soils emit CO₂ through mineralization and decomposition of organic matter and respiration of roots and soil organisms. Given this, the evaluation of the effects of abiotic factors on microbial activity is of major importance when considering the mitigation of greenhouse gases emissions. Previous studies demonstrate that soil CO₂ emission is significantly affected by temperature and soil water content. A limited number of studies have illustrated the importance of bulk density and soil surface characteristics as a result of exposure to rain on CO₂ emission, however, none examine their relative importance. Therefore, this study investigated the effects of soil compaction and exposure of the soil surface to rainfall and their interaction on CO₂ release. We conducted a factorial laboratory experiment with three soil types after sieving (clay, silt and sand soil), three different bulk densities (1·1 g cm^–3, 1·3 g cm^–3, 1·5 g cm^–3) and three different exposures to rainfall (no rain, 30 minutes and 90 minutes of rainfall). The results demonstrated CO₂ release varied significantly with bulk density, exposure to rain and time. The relationship between rain exposure and CO₂ is positive: CO₂ emission was 53% and 42% greater for the 90 minutes and 30 minutes rainfall exposure, respectively, compared to those not exposed to rain. Bulk density exhibited a negative relationship with CO₂ emission: soil compacted to a bulk density of 1·1 g cm^–3 emitted 32% more CO₂ than soil compacted to 1·5 g cm^–3. Furthermore we found that the magnitude of CO₂ effluxes depended on the interaction of these two abiotic factors. Given these results, understanding the influence of soil compaction and raindrop impact on CO₂ emission could lead to modified soil management practices which promote carbon sequestration. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

大气二氧化碳遥感反演精度检验及时空特征分析（可下载全文）

 利用卫星遥感探测大气二氧化碳(CO₂)浓度,相比传统的地面观测方法,具有稳定、连续、大尺度观测等诸多优点,能更好地获得全球CO₂的时空分布与变化特征。随着卫星遥感技术的发展,一系列具备大气CO₂探测能力的卫星相继发射升空,大气制图扫描成像吸收光谱仪(SCIAMACHY)、温室气体观测卫星(GOSAT)、大气红外探测仪(AIRS)等卫星传感器,已经获得了多年的全球CO₂浓度分布产品。对这些卫星资料进行对比分析,并与本底观测数据进行全球范围的长时间序列的对比验证。研究显示,3种CO₂卫星遥感产品中,SCIAMACHY数据系统性略高于本底数据,且观测范围局限性较大;GOSAT数据稳定性较好,但系统误差较大,平均低于本底数据近9ppmv;AIRS数据产品相比前两者优势突出,单月全球覆盖率达到90%左右,与本底观测数据平均误差小于2ppmv(0.5%),相关系数达到0.9以上,能够较好地反映全球大气CO₂浓度的时空特征。卫星遥感产品与本底观测资料显示,全球CO₂浓度空间分布呈现出明显的纬度分布规律与海陆分布规律,时间变化规律方面则表现出明显的季节性周期变化。     

The Sustainable Global Energy Economy: Hydrogen or Silicon?

A sustainable global silicon energy economy is proposed as a potential alternative to the hydrogen economy. This first visualization of a silicon energy economy is based on large-scale and carbon-neutral metallic silicon production from major smelters in North Africa and elsewhere, supplied by desert silica sand and electricity from extensive solar generating systems. The resulting “fuel silicon” is shipped around the world to emission-free silicon power stations for either immediate electricity generation or stockpiling. The high energy density of silicon and its stable storage make it an ideal material for maintaining national economic functioning through security of base load power supply from a renewable source. This contrasts with the present situation of fossil fuel usage with its associated global warming and geopolitical supply uncertainties. Critical technological requirements for the silicon economy are carbon-neutral silicon production and the development of efficient silicon-fired power stations capable of high-temperature rapid oxidation of fuel silicon. A call is made for the development of research effort into these specific engineering issues, and also with respect to large-scale economical solar power generation.     

流体的氯含量及其演化：来自岩石含氯矿物的记录

含氯流体是地质作用中重要的流体形式之一。通过含羟基矿物的氯含量来反演流体的组分及其演化是流体研究的一个重要方面。角闪石、黑云母、方柱石和磷灰石是主要的含氯矿物,可以揭示含氯流体与岩石的相互作用。这些矿物的氯含量受平衡流体的成分、温压条件以及自身的晶体化学结构等复杂因素制约。一方面,结合实验确定的热力学数据可以通过矿物氯含量在一定范围内定量计算流体的氯组分;另一方面,也可以根据矿物的氯含量变化特征来反演流体 岩石相互作用过程中流体成分的变化特征,这样的流体成分演化可能反映了特定的地质过程。