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???????λ????????????2004??1???2007??5??ML??1.5????????????ж?λ??????????2004??9??17?????????4.9????????????????????????????????????????ML??2.0?????????????б?????????????4.9???????????????????????????λ???????￡????????1?±?????????????????????????????????4.9?????????????????????     

西北干旱区近50年气候变化特征与趋势

20世纪后期全球增暖趋势越来越明显,受全球增暖的影响,西北地区的气候也将受到不同程度的影响。选取了西北干旱区1951～2000年的21个代表站点气温、降水量资料,采用趋势系数法对西北干旱区近50年气温和降水变化进行分析,找出各分区的变化趋势。结果表明:近50年西北干旱区气温呈上升趋势(0.22℃/10 a),1986年后气温明显升高;柴达木盆地和新疆北部升温较大;各季都有增温趋势,贡献最大的是秋冬两季。降水变化有增加的趋势(3.2 mm/10 a),年降水量贡献最大的是夏季;各区降水都有增加,其中新疆北部降水增加最多。西北干旱区近50年气温升高趋势是南北高,中间低;降水量增加趋势从东南向西北呈现递增的格局。     

Global sea level change and thermal contribution

The global long-term sea level trend is obtained from the analysis of tide gauge data and TOPEX/Poseidon data. The linear trend of global mean sea level is highly non-umiform spatially, with an average rate of 2.2 mm year-1 in T/P sea-level rise from October 1992 to September 2002. Sea level change duc to temperature vanation (the thermosteric sea level) is discussed. The results are compared with TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data in the same temporal span at different spatial scales. It is indicated that the ther-mal effect accounts for 86% and 73% of the observed seasonal variability in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. The TOPEX/Poseidon observed sea level lags behind the TSI, by 2 months in the zonal band of 40°-60° in both the northern and southern hemispheres. Systematic differences of about 1-2cm between TOPEX/Poseidon observations and thermosteric sea level data are obtained. The potential causes for these differences include water exchange among the atmosphere, land, and oceans, and some pos-sible deviations in thermosteric contribution estimates and geophysical corrections to the TOPEX/Poseidon data.     

松辽盆地太东斜坡区葡萄花油层油水分布规律及主控因素

太东斜坡区为松辽盆地大庆长垣向三肇凹陷倾没的单倾斜坡.利用岩心、测井和地震等资料,研究葡萄花油层油藏类型和油水分布规律.结果表明:斜坡区油平面受4条近南北向"断层带"分割,具有东西分带特征,且受源外油源供给不足和油东西向运移影响,自东向西单一"断阶带"含油性逐级变差;油垂向分布受沉积演化和优势输导通道控制表现为"双峰"特征,主要分布在葡萄花油层中部;油藏类型主要为东南倾斜坡背景下的近南北向断层与北西向河道砂体匹配形成的断层—岩性油藏.在油水分布规律研究的基础上,结合单一圈闭内断层与单砂体匹配样式,提出源外斜坡区油聚集机制受构造部位、优质储层、断层封闭性和断层与砂体匹配样式控制,即单一"断阶带"高点控制油气聚集部位;浅水三角洲水下分流河道和河控席状砂构成油气优质储层;断层侧向封闭性影响油气垂向富集高度和平面"互补"特征;断层与单砂体匹配样式决定油气富集层位.     

曲线拟合法在山东流动重力资料处理中的应用

利用曲线拟合法对山东流动重力部分具有趋势性变化的异常测点进行了拟合改正,获取更可靠的重力变化信息,并对趋势性变化显著的测点进行了分析和讨论。     

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Status of the Recent Declining of Arctic Sea Ice Studies

In the past 30 years, a large-scale change occurred in the Arctic climatic system, which had never been observed before 1980s. At the same time, the Arctic sea ice experienced a special evolution with more and more rapidly dramatic declining. In this circumstance, the Arctic sea ice became a new focus of the Arctic research. The recent advancements about abrupt change of the Arctic sea ice are reviewed in this paper .The previous analyses have demonstrated the accelerated declining trend of Arctic sea ice extent in the past 30 years, based on in-situ and satellite-based observations of atmosphere, as well as the results of global and regional climate simulations. Especially in summer, the rate of decrease for the ice extents was above 10% per decade. In present paper, the evolution characteristics of the arctic sea ice and its possible cause are discussed in three aspects, i.e. the sea ice physical properties, the interaction process of sea ice, ocean and atmosphere and its response and feedback mechanism to global and arctic climate system.     

Runoff change of Naoli River in Northeast China in 1955–2009 and its influencing factors

Runoff change and trend of the Naoli River Basin were studied through the time series analysis using the data from the hydrological and meteorological stations. Time series of hydrological data were from 1957 to 2009 for Bao′an station, from 1955 to 2009 for Baoqing station, from 1956 to 2009 for Caizuizi station and from 1978 to 2009 for Hongqiling station. The influences of climate change and human activities on runoff change were investigated, and the causes of hydrological regime change were revealed. The seasonal runoff distribution of the Naoli River was extremely uneven, and the annual change was great. Overall, the annual runoff showed a significant decreasing trend. The annual runoff of Bao′an, Baoqing, and Caizuizi stations in 2009 decreased by 64.1%, 76.3%, and 84.3%, respectively, compared with their beginning data recorded. The wet and dry years of the Naoli River have changed in the study period. The frequency of wet year occurrence decreased and lasted longer, whereas that of dry year occurrence increased. The frequency of dry year occurrence increased from 25.0%-27.8% to 83.9%-87.5%. The years before the 1970s were mostly wet, whereas those after the 1970s were mostly dry. Precipitation reduction and land use changes contributed to the decrease in annual runoff. Rising temperature and water project construction have also contributed important effects on the runoff change of the Naoli River.     

高空急流区飞机颠簸的一种形成机制的探讨

作者应用动力学分析方法，结合观测飞机颠簸的事实，对高空急流区飞机颠簸的一种形成机理进行了理论探讨。结果表明，高空急流区温度平流分布的不均匀性，会在急流附近等温线密集区边缘激发出空气垂直运动和湍流，引起飞机颠簸。     

前期印度洋海温异常对中国春季降水的影响

为了进一步认识印度洋海温的异常变化与中国降水的关系,采用SVD分析、相关分析及合成差值分析讨论了前期冬季关键区海温的异常变化对中国春季降水影响的差异,探讨了产生这种影响的原因。结果表明:前期冬季关键区海温的异常增高(降低),会造成后期春季中国华北往南到华中、华东、华南东部及西北的新疆地区的降水明显增多(减少),西南的四川、贵州及华南的广西等地降水会有所减少(增多)。与关键区冷年相比,在关键区的暖年,环流形势反映出东欧槽显著减弱,北方气压显著降低,蒙古高压明显减弱,冷空气南下更为明显,而华南东部、华中、华东及华北一直被较为显著的南风气流控制,海洋的暖湿气流向中国内陆输送更为显著,使得东部及中部大部分地区水汽较为充沛,形成大面积的降水。