Location,location, location: changes in the diversity of animal resources exploited by Tardiglacial humans in northern Spain

Prey diversity of Homo sapiens in north Iberia exhibited shifts associated with climate warming after the Last Glacial Maximum, as deduced from animal remains obtained from Upper Palaeolithic caves in Asturias (northern Spain). Significant association of prey diversity and river proximity was found during adverse climate conditions, indicating opportunistic predation. A high increase of prey diversity was found when small animals (including fish) were taken into account in archaeological records, highlighting the importance of this type of prey in Palaeolithic diets. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impact of land use change and check‐dams on catchment sediment yield

Extensive land use changes have occurred in many areas of SE Spain as a result of reforestation and the abandonment of agricultural activities. Parallel to this the Spanish Administration spends large funds on hydrological control works to reduce erosion and sediment transport. However, it remains untested how these large land use changes affect the erosion processes at the catchment scale and if the hydrological control works efficiently reduce sediment export. A combination of field work, mapping and modelling was used to test the influence of land use scenarios with and without sediment control structures (check‐dams) on sediment yield at the catchment scale. The study catchment is located in SE Spain and suffered important land use changes, increasing the forest cover 3‐fold and decreasing the agricultural land 2·5‐fold from 1956 to 1997. In addition 58 check‐dams were constructed in the catchment in the 1970s accompanying reforestation works. The erosion model WATEM‐SEDEM was applied using six land use scenarios: land use in 1956, 1981 and 1997, each with and without check‐dams. Calibration of the model provided a model efficiency of 0·84 for absolute sediment yield. Model application showed that in a scenario without check dams, the land use changes between 1956 and 1997 caused a progressive decrease in sediment yield of 54%. In a scenario without land use changes but with check‐dams, about 77% of the sediment yield was retained behind the dams. Check‐dams can be efficient sediment control measures, but with a short‐lived effect. They have important side‐effects, such as inducing channel erosion downstream. While also having side‐effects, land use changes can have important long‐term effects on sediment yield. The application of either land use changes (i.e. reforestation) or check‐dams to control sediment yield depends on the objective of the management and the specific environmental conditions of each area. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing possible changes in flood frequency due to climate change in mid‐sized watersheds in New York State,USA

The frequency of flooding is often presumed to increase with climate change because of projected increases in rainfall intensities. In this paper, using 50‐plus years of historical discharge and meteorological data from three watersheds in different physiographic regions of New York State, USA, we find that annual maximum stream discharges are associated with 20% or less of the annual maximum rainfall events. Instead of rainfall events, approximately 20% of annual maximum stream discharges are associated with annual maximum snowmelt events while 60% of annual maximum discharges are associated with moderate rainfall amounts and very wet soil conditions. To explore the potential for changes in future flood risk, we employed a compound frequency distribution that assumes annual maximum discharges can be modelled by combining the cumulative distribution functions of discharges resulting from annual maximum rainfall, annual maximum snowmelt, and occurrences of moderate rain on wet soils. Basing on a compound frequency distribution comprised of univariate general extreme value (GEV) and gamma distributions, we found that a hypothetical 20% increase in the magnitude of rainfall‐related stream discharge results in little change in 96th percentile annual maximum discharge. For the 99th percentile discharge, two waterbodies in our study had a 10% or less increase in annual maximum discharge when annual maximum rainfall‐related discharges increased 20% while the third waterbody had a 16% increase in annual maximum discharges. Additionally, in some cases, annual maximum discharges could be offset by a reduction in the discharge resulting from annual maximum snowmelt events. While only intended as a heuristic tool to explore the interaction among different flood‐causing mechanisms, use of a compound flood frequency distribution suggests a case can be made that not all waterbodies in humid, cold regions will see extensive changes in flooding due to increased rainfall intensities. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flow–duration curve integration into digital filtering algorithms for simulating climate variability based on river baseflow

ABSTRACT

A baseflow separation methodology combining the outcomes of the flow–duration curve and the digital filtering algorithms to cope with the restrictions of traditional procedures has been assessed. Using this methodology as well as the monitored and simulated hydro-climatological data, the baseflow annual variations due to climate change and human-induced activities were determined. The outcomes show that the long-term baseflow index at the upstream sub-basin is nearly half of that at the downstream from October to April, whereas they are close to each other for the remaining months. Some of the groundwater reacts to precipitation and an evident rise in the groundwater contribution was detected for the hydrological years 1998–2001 and 2006–2008. The contrary was recorded for1987. The water released from the reservoir in the dry periods led to distinctions in the detected baseflow index between the pre-damming and post-damming periods of the river.     

Diurnal timing of warmer air under climate change affects magnitude,timing and duration of stream temperature change

Stream temperature will be subject to changes because of atmospheric warming in the future. We investigated the effects of the diurnal timing of air temperature changes – daytime warming versus nighttime warming – on stream temperature. Using the physically based model, Heat Source, we performed a sensitivity analysis of summer stream temperatures to three diurnal air temperature distributions of +4 °C mean air temperature: i) uniform increase over the whole day, ii) warmer daytime and iii) warmer nighttime. The stream temperature model was applied to a 37‐km section of the Middle Fork John Day River in northeastern Oregon, USA. The three diurnal air temperature distributions generated 7‐day average daily maximum stream temperatures increases of approximately +1.8 °C ± 0.1 °C at the downstream end of the study section. The three air temperature distributions, with the same daily mean, generated different ranges of stream temperatures, different 7‐day average daily maximum temperatures, different durations of stream temperature changes and different average daily temperatures in most parts of the reach. The stream temperature changes were out of phase with air temperature changes, and therefore in many places, the greatest daytime increase in stream temperature was caused by nighttime warming of air temperatures. Stream temperature changes tended to be more extreme and of longer duration when driven by air temperatures concentrated in either daytime or nighttime instead of uniformly distributed across the diurnal cycle. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulating the response of a closed‐basin lake to recent climate changes in tropical West Africa (Lake Bosumtwi,Ghana)

Historical changes in the level of Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana, have been simulated using a catchment‐scale hydrological model in order to assess the importance of changes in climate and land use on lake water balance on a monthly basis for the period 1939–2004. Several commonly used models for computing evaporation in data‐sparse regions are compared, including the Penman, the energy budget, and the Priestley–Taylor methods. Based on a comparison with recorded lake level variations, the model with the energy‐budget evaporation model subcomponent is most effective at reproducing observed lake level variations using regional climate records. A sensitivity analysis using this model indicates that Lake Bosumtwi is highly sensitive to changes in precipitation, cloudiness and temperature. However, the model is also sensitive to changes in runoff related to vegetation, and this factor needs to be considered in simulating lake level variations. Both interannual and longer‐term changes in lake level over the last 65 years appear to have been caused primarily by changes in precipitation, though the model also suggests that the drop in lake level over the last few decades has been moderated by changes in cloudiness and temperature over that time. Based on its effectiveness at simulating the magnitude and rate of lake level response to changing climate over the historical record, this model offers a potential future opportunity to examine the palaeoclimatic factors causing past lake level fluctuations preserved in the geological record at Lake Bosumtwi. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Regression‐based approach to low flow prediction in the Maryland Piedmont region under joint climate and land use change

We examine the low flow records for six urbanized watersheds in the Maryland Piedmont region and develop regression equations to predict annual minimum low flow events. The effects of both future climate (based on precipitation and temperature projections from two climate models: Hadley and the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC)) and land use change are incorporated to illustrate possible future trends in low flows. A regression modelling approach is pursued to predict the minimum annual 7‐day low flow estimates for the proposed future scenarios. A regional regression model was calibrated with between 10 and 50 years of daily precipitation, daily average temperature, annual imperviousness, and the daily observed flow time‐series across six watersheds. Future simulations based on a 55 km² urbanizing watershed just north of Washington, DC, were performed. When land use and climate change were employed singly, the former predicted no trends in low flows and the latter predicted significant increasing trends under Hadley and no trends under CCC. When employed jointly, however, low flows were predicted to decrease significantly under CCC, whereas Hadley predicted no significant trends in low flows. Antecedent precipitation was the most influential predictor on low flows, followed by urbanization. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Glacier inventory of the Gran Campo Nevado Ice Cap in the Southern Andes and glacier changes observed during recent decades

The Gran Campo Nevado (GCN) forms an isolated ice cap on the Península Muñoz Gamero (PMG) located 200 km to the south of the Southern Patagonia Icefield (SPI). We present a glacier inventory of the GCN made up by 27 drainage basins (in total 199.5 km²) and other small cirque and valley glaciers of the southern part of PMG (in total 53 km²). The glacier inventory is based on a digital elevation model (DEM) and ortho-photos. Contour lines from maps, relief information derived from Landsat TM satellite imagery from 1986 and 2002 and stereoscopic data from aerial photos were combined in a knowledge-based scheme to obtain a DEM of the area. A digital ortho-photo map based on aerial photos from 1998 and several ortho-photos based on aerial photos from 1942 and 1984 could be produced from the initial DEM. A geographical information system (GIS) served to outline the extent of the present glaciation. All major glaciers of the GCN show a significant glacier retreat during the last 60 yr. Some of the outlet glaciers lost more than 20% of their total area during this period. Overall glacier retreat amounts to 2.8% of glacier length per decade and the glacier area loss is 2.4% per decade in the period from 1942 to 2002. We hypothesise that GCN glaciers may have reacted faster and more synchronously with the observed warming trend during recent decades when compared with the SPI.     

Decadal trend of climate in the Tibetan Plateau—regional temperature and precipitation

The Tibetan Plateau has one of the most complex climates in the world. Analysis of the climate in this region is important for understanding the climate change worldwide. In this study, climate patterns and trends in the Tibetan Plateau were analysed for the period from 1961 to 2001. Air temperature and precipitation were analysed on monthly and annual time scales using data collected from the National Meteorological Centre, China Meteorological Administration. Nonlinear slopes were estimated and analysed to investigate the spatial and temporal trends of air temperature and precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau using a Mann–Kendall method. Spatial analysis of air temperature and precipitation variability across the Tibetan Plateau was undertaken. While most trends are local in nature, there are general basinwide patterns. Temperature during the last several decades showed a long‐term warmer trend, especially the areas around Dingri and Zogong stations, which formed two increasing centres. Only one of the stations investigated exhibited decreasing trend, and this was not significant. Precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau has increased in most regions of the study area over the past several decades, especially in the eastern and central part, while the western Tibetan Region exhibited a decreased trend over the same period. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial distribution and temporal variation of reference evapotranspiration in arid and semi‐arid regions of Iran

Analysis of spatial and temporal variations of reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) is important in arid and semi‐arid regions where water resources are limited. The main aim of this study was to analyse the spatial distribution and the annual, seasonal and monthly trends of the Penman–Monteith ET_o for 21 stations in the arid and semi‐arid regions of Iran. Three statistical tests the Mann‐Kendall, Sen's slope estimator and linear regression were used for the analysis. The analysis revealed that ET_o increased from January to July and deceased from July to December at almost all stations. Additionally, higher annual ET_o values were found in the southeast of the study region and lower values in the northwest of the region. Although the results showed both positive and negative trends in annual ET_o series, ET_o generally increased, significantly so in six (～30%) of the stations. Analysis of the impacts of meteorological variables on the temporal trends of ET_o indicated that the increasing trend of ET_o was most likely due to a significant increase in minimum air temperature, while decreasing trend of ET_o was mainly caused by a significant decrease in wind speed. At the sites where increasing ET_o trends were statistically significant, the rate of increase varied from (+)8·36 mm/year at Mashhad station to (+)31·68 mm/year at Iranshahr station. On average, an increasing trend of (+)4·42 mm/year was obtained for the whole study area during the last four decades. Seasonal and monthly ET_o have also tended to increase at the majority of the stations. The greatest numbers of significant trends were observed in winter on the seasonal time‐scale and in September on the monthly time‐scale. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.