基于拉格朗日插值法修正地形影响的分布式降水模型研究

降水量一直是进行水文分析计算的输入项，对其分布状况的模拟直接影响水文分析成果精度。降水中心位置及其中心降水量对暴雨分析尤为重要，而目前尚未见对降水中心位置方面的模型研究。在对目前国内外降水模型分析的基础上，根据天气系统降水如不受地形影响其降水量等值线在平面上的分布近似为一组同心椭圆这一原理，建立了一种能够模拟次降水过程的降水中心位置及其中心降水量的新型分布式降水数学模型，并对其进行地形影响因素修正。由于模型建立原理简单，易于实现对流域未设站研究点的实时降水量估计，同时由于模型能够指明降水中心位置及其中心降水量，因此在流域暴雨分析和洪水预报中具有实用价值。模型经实践检验具有较高精度。     

基于全球一体化的中原城市群城市竞争力研究

全球化背景下，城市群主导世界经济的趋势不可阻挡，关于城市群的研究随之也越来越受到人们的重视。近几年，中原城市群悄悄崛起，但只是一个雏形，还存在很多问题。为了更好的促进中原城市群的发育，特别是加强城市群内部各城市发挥特长、合理分工、优势互补，进而提升中原地区区域经济的发展水平，文章选用了九大类44项城市竞争力指标，建立了城市竞争力的指标体系，从定量的角度对中原城市群的城市竞争力进行了排序、对比、分析，其城市竞争力排名依次是郑州、济源、洛阳、焦作、漯河、新乡、许昌、平顶山及开封。得到的结论如下：(1)首位城市竞争力强，但还没有发挥核心城市的作用。(2)工业型的城市经济实力竞争力强。(3)农业型城市的经济竞争力较弱。(4)产业竞争力和资金实力是影响城市综合竞争力的主要因子。(5)个别城市的单项指标存在异常点，显现出其优劣势。最后根据分析结果，笔者提出了四点优化对策，为城市群中的城市定位、产业分工、资源优化配置及相应区域互动政策的制定提供决策依据。     

The Victorian Bushfires of 2002–03 and the Politics of Blame: a Discourse Analysis

This paper identifies contrasting environmental discourses on bushfire from the public debate that followed the Victorian fires of 2002–03. Submissions to the inquiry into the 2002–03 Victorian bushfires provide a particularly rich source of documentation. It is argued that environmental events such as bushfire only become political issues, or problems, when they are constituted as such through environmental discourse. Through the analysis, three contrasting discourses on bushfire are identified—here labelled the ‘conservationist’, ‘ruralist’ and ‘wise use’ discourses. In examining how different ‘constructions’ of bushfire have led to conflict, each discourse is shown to consist of a range of actors who draw on shared storylines. Having established a better understanding of the different attitudes, beliefs, interests and values that underpin debates about bushfire, the paper concludes with a brief discussion of the prospects for compromise among the discourses and the potential for improved land and fire management outcomes.     

Stability and accuracy analysis of the central difference method for real‐time substructure testing

The central difference method (CDM) that is explicit for pseudo‐dynamic testing is also believed to be explicit for real‐time substructure testing (RST). However, to obtain the correct velocity dependent restoring force of the physical substructure being tested, the target velocity is required to be calculated as well as the displacement. The standard CDM provides only explicit target displacement but not explicit target velocity. This paper investigates the required modification of the standard central difference method when applied to RST and analyzes the stability and accuracy of the modified CDM for RST. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A late Early Pleistocene pollen record from Fontana Ranuccio (central Italy)

A pollen record from a sediment core drilled underneath the Acheulian site of Fontana Ranuccio provides new data on the vegetation characters in central Italy during the late Early Pleistocene, in a forest phase possibly corresponding to a substage of Marine Isotope Stage 21. A number of tree taxa nowadays extinct in Europe (Cathaya, Tsuga, Taxodium type, Carya and Pterocarya) are present at Fontana Ranuccio in a temperate phase characterised by dense forest conditions, dominated by Alnus and Pterocarya. The comparison of the Fontana Ranuccio record with other dated sites distributed along the Italian peninsula indicates that the floristic and vegetational characters of the Mid Pleistocene revolution present a rather distinct succession of biostratigraphic events. Compared to other Early Pleistocene pollen records from southern Europe, the Italian Peninsula shows greater floristic similarities with the Eastern Mediterranean regions than with the Iberian Peninsula. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Early‐middle Holocene land snail shell stable isotope record from Grotta di Latronico 3 (southern Italy)

This paper compares stable isotope (δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C) records of early–middle Holocene land snail shells from the archaeological deposits of Grotta di Latronico 3 (LTR3; southern Italy) with modern shell isotopic data. No substantial interspecific variability was observed in shell δ¹⁸O (δ¹⁸Os) of modern specimens (Pomatias elegans, Cornu aspersum, Eobania vermiculata, Helix ligata and Marmorana fuscolabiata). In contrast, interspecific shell δ¹³C (δ¹³Cs) variability was significant, probably due to different feeding behaviour among species. The δ¹⁸Os values of living land snails suggest that species hibernate for a long period during colder months, so that the signal of ¹⁸O‐depleted winter rainfall in their δ¹⁸Os is lost. This suggests that δ¹⁸Os and δ¹³Cs values of Pomatias elegans from this archaeological succession provide valuable clues for seasonal (spring–autumn) climatic conditions during the early–middle Holocene. The δ¹⁸Os values of fossil specimens are significantly lower than in modern shells and in agreement with other palaeoclimatic records, suggesting a substantial increase of precipitation and/or persistent changes in air mass source trajectories over this region between ca. 8.8 cal ka BP and 6.2–6.7 ka ago. The δ¹³Cs trend suggests a transition from a slightly ¹³C‐enriched to a ¹³C‐depleted diet between early and middle Holocene compared to present conditions. We postulate that this δ¹³Cs trend might reflect changes in the C3 vegetation community, potentially combined with other environmental factors such as regional moisture increase and the progressive decrease of atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

武汉中心城区热岛效应模拟

针对传统的模拟热环境时空演变模型欠缺可推广性,该文提出运用CA-Markov模型研究热环境变化趋势,既能有效模拟元胞时空格局变化,又能提高元胞转化预测精度,经验证Kappa指数为73.46%,具有较高的可信度。基于CA-Markov模型模拟的武汉中心城区热环境表明:2009—2018年低温区和次低温区呈现减少趋势,中温区显著增加,热岛略有增长,总体强度增大,热岛效应愈发明显;2009—2018年热岛演变呈西南-东北方向,有向西-东方向发展的趋势,热岛重心南偏西方向移动;2009—2018年热岛区域在景观水平上破碎度较高,热环境趋于复杂化。研究结果对武汉中心城区城市规划、生态环境改善等具有一定的参考价值。     

Possible spatial variability in the Selwyn Block of Central Victoria: evidence from Late Devonian felsic igneous rocks

The Neoproterozoic to Cambrian Selwyn Block in Central Victoria forms the mainly unexposed basement to the Paleozoic metasediments, granitic rocks and felsic volcanic complexes of the Melbourne Zone of the Lachlan Orogen. The Late Devonian felsic rocks are largely products of partial melting of the Selwyn Block, and their chemistry implies that their sources were most probably arc-related andesite, dacite, volcaniclastic greywackes and some pelites. When plotted against the median longitudes of the plutons and volcanic complexes, the average values for ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_t and ?Nd_t (at 370 Ma) reveal broad trends interpreted to reflect possible compositional and/or age structure in the Selwyn Block. Assuming that the trends are real, from W to E, I-type sources are progressively less crustally evolved, probably younging eastward. The S-type sources show no trend in ?Nd_t, suggesting that there was efficient sediment mixing. The ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_t values, however, become more evolved eastward (opposite in sense to the apparent variation in the I-type sources). This is interpreted as the original Selwyn Block sediments having been more pelitic eastward, perhaps suggesting a deepening of the basin in this direction, as well as structurally upward in the succession. The opposite senses of variation highlights the spatial separation of the S- and I-type sources and suggest that the granitic magmas here are unlikely to represent any sort of mixing continuum.     

上海中心城就业中心体系测度————基于手机信令数据的研究

利用手机信令数据识别上海市域内手机用户的工作地和居住地,获取就业者的通勤数据,测度上海中心城的就业中心体系.首先用就业者工作地数据生成就业密度分布图,基于中心城的就业密度识别就业中心.随后,用就业者工作地和居住地数据分别从就业密度和通勤联系两方面测度各中心的能级,分析各中心的腹地和势力范围.研究发现:① 上海中心城的就业中心呈主中心强大的弱多中心体系;② 就业密度越高的中心与其他地区的通勤联系一般也越强,但通勤联系在各中心间的差异更显著;③ 能级越高的中心腹地面积越大,但势力范围不一定越大;④ 相比于能级,职住功能混合度对职住平衡的影响更大;⑤缺少就业中心的地区势力范围呈交替状.本研究一定程度上能有助于解决既往就业中心体系研究因空间单元较大,缺少通勤数据在中心识别,通勤联系测度等方面受到的局限,希望能为构建上海中心城就业多中心体系提供帮助.