Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Agglomeration of China

Nowadays, increased attention is being paid to the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. This paper attempts to examine the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth for China’s Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei agglomeration, using annual data covering the period 1982- 2008. In this study, unit root tests, the Johansen co-integration test, and the Granger causality test are applied. The empirical results indicate that the two series (electricity consumption and economic growth) of the three locales (Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei) are non-stationary. But first differences of the two series are stationary. The results of the Johansen co-integration test indicate that electricity consumption and economic growth are co-integrated in Hebei and Tianjin while this is not the case in Beijing. The Granger causality test implies that there is causality running from electricity consumption to economic growth in all of the three locales. Causality running from economic growth to electricity consumption is found in Hebei and Beijing while this is not the case in Tianjin. This means that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further electricity consumption in Hebei and Beijing. But in Tianjin, an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth while economic growth cannot affect electricity consumption. These findings can provide useful information for local governments of the three locales to formulate sustainable energy and economic policies. The study is of great significance for circular economy and building a resource-conserving society.     

中国城市住房价格的地理扩散及其区域外部性问题

通过对1998~2009年年间、国家发改委所监测的国内35个大中城市房屋销售价格指数面板数据,进行单位根和Granger因果检验,表明中国城市居民的住房价格在经济地位最重要的城市之间存在波动的传递。表现出:一,在传递的水平方向上具有地理方向性;二,在传递的垂直方向上具有"4-4-9-9-9"的层级结构性。研究认为中国城市房价的波动是一个地理扩散过程,并且具有邻里扩散与等级扩散相并存的特征。这与国外相关文献的研究成果基本一致。房价的地理扩散属于"发展的地理扩散",具有区域外部性的性质,可以从一个侧面揭示区域外部性传递的过程和形成的格局。     

中国西北地区与东部地区跨区域金融流实证研究

 西北地区是我国不发达的地区,其经济金融发展状况远远落后于东部发达地区。运用相对量分析法分析了西北地区金融流流向东部地区的现实情况,借助计量经济学协整分析VEC模型和格兰杰因果检验等方法对两地区经济差距和金融差距之间的关系进行实证研究,结果表明：东西部经济差距与金融差距存在因果关系,两地经济差距引起金融要素从落后的西北地区流向了发达的东部地区,这进一步阻碍了西北地区的经济增长,并使得两地区经济差距逐渐拉大,最后给出相应的政策建议。     

近30a来新疆城乡统筹及其与城镇化作用关系的定量分析

以城乡经济统筹和城乡居民统筹为角度,建立了新疆城乡统筹发展水平评价的指标体系得到新疆自改革开放以来城乡统筹发展水平在波动中快速增长,并且新疆城乡统筹发展水平高于全国平均水平。同时,采用Granger因果关系检验法对城乡统筹和城镇化相互关系研究表明,新疆城乡统筹发展与城镇化之间存在长期均衡协整和单项因果关系,城镇化水平每提高1%,城乡统筹水平提高0.7%,且存在两年的滞后期。     

欧洲七国入境中国旅游与进出口贸易的关系——1985—2009年的协整分析和Granger因果关系检验

选取1985-2009年欧洲七国入境中国客流量与进出口贸易统计数据,运用协整分析和Granger因果检验方法,构建各国入境中国客流量与进口贸易、出口贸易的协整方程和修正模型,分别对欧洲七国入境中国客流量与进出口贸易额之间的关系进行分析和研究。结果表明：欧洲七国入境中国客流量与其对中国进出口贸易额存在长期均衡关系,各国入境客流量对进口和出口贸易额的长期弹性远大于短期弹性;Granger因果关系检验显示,欧洲七国入境中国客流量与进口贸易额存在显著的单向因果关系,英国、德国和瑞典入境中国客流量与出口贸易额的单向因果关系显著,瑞士进口贸易额、意大利出口贸易额与其入境中国客流量的单向因果关系显著,其差异性与各国入境中国客流量的大小、贸易依存度、贸易顺逆差情况和双边关系的对称性差异密切相关。     

Dispersion of seismic waves by a causal approach

Basic ideas of the causal approach to wave propagation in random media are first overviewed. This approach appeals from the outset to the linearity, causality, and passivity of the effective medium and is therefore particularly simple from the conceptual viewpoint. The energy analysis and the Kramers-Kronig relations play the major role in this method, which does not resort to ensemble averaging.Then the dispersion of plane wave propagation in randon media is evaluated by extending Wu's results on attenuation induced by scattering. These results are particularly suitable for seismic waves, for which the so-called mean-field approach may not provide adequate modeling. The presence of intrinsic losses is also incorporated. The analysis also includes the case of propagation of a small-amplitude discontinuity.     

Does patents on environmental technologies matter for the ecological footprint in the USA? Evidence from the novel Fourier ARDL approach

The outcome of patents on environmental (POET) technologies on the EF in the USA has not been comprehensively explored. Therefore, to close this breach in the literature, the present study discovers how patents on ecological technologies affect ecological footprint (EF) in the USA while regulatory for GDP and EC using the Fourier-based approaches. The conclusions of the present study reveal that POET are an important predictor of EF in the USA and cause a reduction in ecological deprivation in the long run; as expected, economic growth negatively affects environmental sustainability. The outcomes suggest that it is possible to resolve conflicts between the economy and the environment by using technological innovation. The USA government must reconsider its policy focus, particularly on coal energy sourcing and industrial energy, while continuing with heavy investments in its ambitious renewable energy technology development plan. Moreover, the government should continue to promote investments in environmental technologies.     

A bivariate model for estimating reciprocal causality within biogeomorphic ecosystems: The cross-lagged panel model

Biogeomorphic ecosystems (e.g. rivers, salt marshes, mangroves and coastal dunes) are shaped by feedbacks between geomorphology and engineer plants that occur at various spatiotemporal scales. The classical bivariate and multivariate statistical methods currently used in biogeomorphology do not permit clear identification of reciprocal causality between geomorphic and biological variables. The aim of this article is to present the potential of the cross-lagged panel model (CLPM) to estimate reciprocal associations (causality) between one geomorphic and one biological variable over time. This tool, which originates from behavioural, social, medical and educational sciences, has clear potential as a novel approach to causal analysis in the context of biogeomorphic ecosystems. We provide a case study of the application of CLPM for analysing biogeomorphic feedbacks between topography and Populus nigra L. physiognomy on a wooded point bar of the Garonne River, France. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

城市土地集约利用与经济增长的协整分析及因果关系检验——以江苏省无锡市为例

城市土地集约利用与经济增长间存在密切关系。借助Eviews5.0软件,分析了无锡市1991-2007年城市土地集约利用与经济增长间的协整关系和因果关系,发现城市土地集约利用与经济增长间存在长期的均衡关系,但短期存在失衡关系,短期失衡向长期均衡回归的速度达0.9709;长期内,经济增长对城市土地集约利用的弹性为0.2848,短期则为0.2681;无锡市城市土地集约利用与经济增长间存在单向因果关系。