Practical causal hysteretic damping

A number of experiments indicate that the internal damping corresponding to the energy dissipation of many materials is essentially frequency independent. Accordingly, an analysis model that can express such characteristics (called a hysteretic damping model) in the time domain is needed. Although a great number of investigations into this subject have been carried out, there are a few practical methods. In this paper, a simple hysteretic damping model which satisfies the causality condition is presented using an extension of the complex stiffness transfer method that the author has proposed. Compared with the energy proportional damping model and the Biot model, the applicability and the efficiency of this model to time history response analyses were confirmed well by example problems. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Time‐domain viscoelastic analysis of earth structures

In this paper two causal models that approximate the nearly frequency‐independent cyclic behaviour of soils are analysed in detail. The study was motivated by the need to conduct time‐domain viscoelastic analysis on soil structures without adopting the ad hoc assumption of Rayleigh damping. First, the causal hysteretic model is introduced in which its imaginary part is frequency independent the same way that is the imaginary part of the popular non‐causal constant hysteretic model. The adoption of an imaginary part that is frequency independent even at the zero‐frequency limit, in conjunction with the condition that the proposed model should be causal, yields a real part that is frequency dependent and singular at zero frequency. The paper shows that the causal hysteretic model, although pathological at the static limit, is the mathematical connection between the non‐causal constant hysteretic model and the physically realizable Biot model. The mathematical structure of the two causal models is examined and it is shown that the causal hysteretic model is precisely the high‐frequency limit of the Biot model. Although both models have a closed‐form time‐domain representation, only the Biot model is suitable for a time‐domain viscoelastic analysis with commercially available computer software. The paper demonstrates that the simplest, causal and physically realizable linear hysteretic model that can approximate the cyclic behaviour of soil is the Biot model. The proposed study elucidates how the dynamic analysis of soil structures can be conducted rigorously in terms of the viscoelastic properties of the soil material and not with the ad hoc Rayleigh damping approach which occasionally has been criticized that tends to overdamp the higher vibration modes. The study concludes that under pulse‐type motions the Rayleigh damping approximation tends to overestimate displacements because of the inappropriate viscous type of dissipation that is imposed. Under longer motions that induce several cycles, the concept of equivalent viscous damping is more appropriate and the Rayleigh damping approximation results to a response that is comparable to the response computed with a rigorous time‐domain viscoelastic finite element analysis. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Superluminal Kinematics in the Milne Universe: Causality in the Cosmic Time Order

The causality of superluminal signal transfer in the galaxy background is scrutinized. The cosmic time of the comoving galaxy frame determines a distinguished time order for events connected by superluminal signals. Every observer can relate his rest frame to the galaxy frame, and compare so the time order of events in his proper time to the cosmic time order. In this way all observers arrive at identical conclusions on the causality of events connected by superluminal signals. The energy of tachyons (superluminal particles) is defined in the comoving galaxy frame analogous to the energy of subluminal particles. It is positive in the galaxy frame and bounded from below in the rest frames of geodesically moving observers, so that particle-tachyon interactions can be based on energy-momentum conservation. We study tachyons in a Robertson-Walker cosmology with linear expansion factor and open, negatively curved 3-space (Milne universe). This cosmology admits globally geodesic rest frames for uniformly moving observers, synchronized by Lorentz boosts. In this context we show that no signals can be sent into the past of observers. If an observer emits a tachyonic signal, then the response of a second observer can never reach him prior to the emission, i.e., no predetermination can occur. The proof is based on the positivity of tachyonic energy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Applying Recent Developments in Time Series Econometrics to the Spatial Domain

This paper surveys some recent developments in time series econometrics and examines to what degree they might have useful analogs in spatial econometrics. Spatial analogs of stationary vector autoregression models might be useful in modeling groups of spatial series, but the literature on non‐stationarity and cointegration does not have a useful purely spatial analog. With the exception of some special cases, pure spatial series cannot be integrated processes. However, cointegration might apply to space‐time processes. Space‐time cointegration and Granger causality methods are developed and applied to explaining reductions in sulfur emissions in Europe.     

青藏高原植被NDVI对气候因子响应的格兰杰效应分析

多变的气候和复杂的地理环境使得青藏高原植被对气候变化响应敏感,因此分析高原植被与气候因子之间的动态关系对气候变化研究和生态系统管理具有重要意义。论文基于1982—2012年青藏高原气象数据(气温、降水)以及GIMMS NDVI3g遥感数据,在像素级别上运用格兰杰因果关系检验方法,在月尺度和季节尺度上分析了高原植被NDVI(主要是草原)与平均气温、降水量之间的响应情况及因果关系。研究表明：① 月尺度上NDVI与平均气温之间、NDVI与降水量之间的时序平稳性比例高于季节尺度,月尺度下达到平稳性的植被区域分别占99.13%和98.68%,季节尺度下分别占64.01%和71.97%;② 月尺度下高原平均气温和降水量对NDVI影响的滞后期都集中在第12~13个月,荒漠草原、典型草原和草甸3种植被类型的滞后期一致,季节尺度下平均气温和降水量对NDVI影响的滞后期主要分布在第3~4和第6个季度,3种植被类型的滞后期差异性较大;③ 月尺度下,青藏高原约98.95%的植被覆被区的平均气温是引起NDVI变化的格兰杰原因,反之,大部分地区(约89.05%,除高原东南区域)内NDVI也是引起平均气温变化的格兰杰原因;季节尺度下,青藏高原中部以外植被区域(约92.03%)内的平均气温是引起NDVI变化的格兰杰原因,而在东部和西部部分地区(约50.55%)中NDVI也是引起平均气温变化的格兰杰原因;④ 月尺度下,高原东北和西北地区(约72.05%)内的降水量是引起NDVI变化的格兰杰原因,大部分地区(约94.86%,除东南部少量区域)中NDVI是引起降水量变化的格兰杰原因;季节尺度下,高原东南部(约61.43%)地区内的降水量是引起NDVI变化的格兰杰原因,高原中东部地区(约48.98%)中NDVI是引起降水量变化的格兰杰原因。总之,高原植被NDVI与气温、降水的相互作用显著,彼此均可构成格兰杰因果效应,但总体上气候因子的影响程度大于植被的反馈作用,月尺度的效应区域大于季节尺度的效应区域。     

空港与中国城市经济增长：一个长期因果关系检验

基于中国35个大中型城市1997―2011年的面板数据,对空港与城市经济之间的长期因果关系进行检验。研究结果发现：我国大中型城市的空港客流增长是城市长期经济增长的单向格兰杰原因;直辖市和副省级城市的航空客流和物流均是城市长期经济增长的单向格兰杰原因,空港是城市发展的内生因素,会促进城市经济的长期增长;其他省会城市仅存在城市经济增长至空港客流长期增长的单向格兰杰因果关系,空港只对城市经济具有短期效应。空港的规模大小、是否为枢纽将决定是用新古典经济增长理论还是内生增长理论去理解其对城市经济增长的意义,空港条件的差异将加剧城市经济的分异,航空网络的发展也将对城市体系产生重要影响。而城市经济增长对航空运输的长期增长效应并不普遍,表明我国城市的经济产业结构对空港的依赖性还较弱。综合考虑城市发展条件,合理规划空港并布局相关产业,或许航空城将是未来都市经济增长的新引擎。     

Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Agglomeration of China

Nowadays, increased attention is being paid to the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. This paper attempts to examine the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth for China’s Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei agglomeration, using annual data covering the period 1982- 2008. In this study, unit root tests, the Johansen co-integration test, and the Granger causality test are applied. The empirical results indicate that the two series (electricity consumption and economic growth) of the three locales (Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei) are non-stationary. But first differences of the two series are stationary. The results of the Johansen co-integration test indicate that electricity consumption and economic growth are co-integrated in Hebei and Tianjin while this is not the case in Beijing. The Granger causality test implies that there is causality running from electricity consumption to economic growth in all of the three locales. Causality running from economic growth to electricity consumption is found in Hebei and Beijing while this is not the case in Tianjin. This means that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further electricity consumption in Hebei and Beijing. But in Tianjin, an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth while economic growth cannot affect electricity consumption. These findings can provide useful information for local governments of the three locales to formulate sustainable energy and economic policies. The study is of great significance for circular economy and building a resource-conserving society.     

2008年初广西罕见低温雨雪冰冻天气的成因初探

利用广西1971~2000年地面气象资料记录和Micaps提供的常规地面、高空观测资料,对2008年1月12日~2月5日广西低温雨雪冰冻天气成因进行分析,结果表明,欧亚地区出现罕见、持续而稳定的大气环流异常形势,是造成这次低温雨雪冰冻天气的直接原因。这种大气环流异常形势主要表现在:(1)长时间持续的中高纬度欧亚地区的大气环流呈现西高东低分布,有利于强冷空气自西北方向沿河西走廊连续不断入侵中国;(2)青藏高原南缘的南支低压槽活跃,促使西南方向暖湿空气沿云贵高原向中国输送;(3)由于冷暖空气交汇区,暖湿空气在上,在对流层中低层形成稳定的逆温层,是广西北部地区大范围冻雨出现的主要原因。     

2008年桂西低温雨雪冻害特点及成因分析

利用观测实况、数值预报产品等资料,通过一般统计学和天气学诊断分析的方法,对2008年1~2桂西低温雨雪冻害极端天气事件进行分析,揭示了该次灾害有平均气温低、持续时间长、冻雨和冰冻影响及受灾特别严重等特点,造成灾害的主要成因为蒙古高压长期稳定偏强,高纬乌拉尔山高压和巴湖横槽不断重建崩溃,低纬南支西风槽异常活跃,冷暖空气在华南地区上空交绥等大气环流异常。     

气候检测与归因的格兰杰检验法

 为揭示气候变化并探索其可能原因,引入了格兰杰因果检验法。在叙述其基本原理的基础上,对影响中国气温变化的若干因子进行了检验。论证了通过检验的因子与中国气温变化的可能物理联系,着重说明了二氧化碳增加对中国气温变化的影响,解释了我国增温滞后于全球气温变化的原因。由此证实格兰杰因果检验法是气候变化检测与归因的一种有用的新方法。通过计算和分析,证实了格兰杰检验法的可用性。