GEOGRAPHIC ENVIRONMENT CHANGE AND FLOOD CATASTROPHE IN HUAIHE RIVER BASIN DURING LAST 2000 YEARS

ＧＥＯＧＲＡＰＨＩＣ ＥＮＶＩＲＯＮＭＥＮＴ ＣＨＡＮＧＥ ＡＮＤ ＦＬＯＯＤ ＣＡＴＡＳＴＲＯＰＨＥ ＩＮ ＨＵＡＩＨＥ ＲＩＶＥＲ ＢＡＳＩＮ ＤＵＲＩＮＧ ＬＡＳＴ ２０００ ＹＥＡＲＳＹａｎｇＤａｙｕａｎ（杨达源）（ＤｅｐａｒｔｍｅｎｔｏｆＧ...     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: Unfairly Structured Cities . Blair Badcock Religion and Rural Revolt . Janos M. Bak and Gerhard Benecke The Industrial Geography of Canada . Anthony Blackbourn and Robert G. Putnam The Cuban-American Experience, Culture, Images, and Perspectives. Thomas D. Boswell and James R. Curtis Quaternary Paleoclimatology . R. S. Bradley Development and Crisis in Brazil, 1930–1983 . Luiz Bresser Pereiras Centres of Origin in Biogeography . John C. Briggs Analytical Urban Geography . Martin Cadwallader Geomorphology . Richard J. Chorley , Stanley A. Schumm, and David E. Sugden South Africa: The Impact of Past Geographies . A. J. Christopher The Geography of Underdevelopment. A Critical Survey . D. K. Forbes Health Care in Developing Countries . Wilbert M. Gesler Place to Grow Old: The Meaning of Environment in Old Age . Stephen M. Golant The Emerging Marine Economy of the Pacific . Chennat Gopalakrishnan An Introduction to Agricultural Geography . David B. Grigg The Soviet Union: A Geographical Study . G. Melvyn Howe Geographical Aspects of Health: Essays in Honour of Andrew Learmonth . N. D. Mc Glashan and J. R. Blunden Physical Geography: A Landscape Appreciation . Tom L. Mc Knight Mountain Experience. The Psychology and Sociology of Adventure. Richard G. Mitchell Jr . Systematic and Regional Biogeography. Stanley A. Morain The Economic Transformation of American Cities. T. J. Noyelle and T. M. Stanback , Jr . Normal Accidents: Living With High-Risk Technologies. Charles Perrow Vanishing Farmland: A Legal Solution for the States. Sarah E. Redfield Applied Methods of Regional Analysis: The Spatial Dimensions of Development Policy. Dennis A. Rondinelli Urbanization in Romania. A Geography of Social and Economic Change Since Independence. Per Ronnas Statistical Techniques in Geographical Analysis. Gareth Shaw and Dennis Wheeler The Granite Garden: Urban Nature and Human Design. Anne Whiston Spirn Political Geography: Recent Advances and Future Directions. Peter Taylor and John House Geographia y Medio Ambiente. Manuel Valenzuela -Rubío Nãgara and Commandery: Origins of the Southeast Asian Urban Traditions. Paul Wheatley The Common Fisheries Policy of the European Community. Mark Wise Geography and Gender. Women and Geography Study Group of the IBG Technological Hazards. D. J. Zeigler , J. H. Johnson , S. D. Brunn     

Study of discontinuities in hydrological data using catastrophe theory

Abstract

Modelling and prediction of hydrological processes (e.g. rainfall–runoff) can be influenced by discontinuities in observed data, and one particular case may arise when the time scale (i.e. resolution) is coarse (e.g. monthly). This study investigates the application of catastrophe theory to examine its suitability to identify possible discontinuities in the rainfall–runoff process. A stochastic cusp catastrophe model is used to study possible discontinuities in the monthly rainfall–runoff process at the Aji River basin in Azerbaijan, Iran. Monthly-averaged rainfall and flow data observed over a period of 20 years (1981–2000) are analysed using the Cuspfit program. In this model, rainfall serves as a control variable and runoff as a behavioural variable. The performance of this model is evaluated using four measures: correlation coefficient, log-likelihood, Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The results indicate the presence of discontinuities in the rainfall–runoff process, with a significant sudden jump in flow (cusp signal) when rainfall reaches a threshold value. The performance of the model is also found to be better than that of linear and logistic models. The present results, though preliminary, are promising in the sense that catastrophe theory can play a possible role in the study of hydrological systems and processes, especially when the data are noisy.

Citation Ghorbani, M. A., Khatibi, R., Sivakumar, B. & Cobb, L. (2010) Study of discontinuities in hydrological data using catastrophe theory. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(7), 1137–1151.     

突变模型势函数的一般表示式及用于富营养化评价

通常的初等突变评价模型仅给出控制变量维数n≤4的突变模型的势函数及相应的归一化公式,对高维(n≥5)的复杂系统需将其分解为若干维数小于4的多层子系统后再递归进行,且一般只给出各评价结果的相对排序.通过对初等突变模型势函数形式和相应的归一化公式的观察、比较和分析归纳,推演出包括任意维的突变模型的势函数形式及其相应的归一化公式.将推导出的突变评价归一化公式和分层递阶降维突变评价模型相结合,实现对指标众多的复杂系统的评价和分类.将突变评价公式应用于北京市21个湖泊的富营养化评价,并与多种评价方法进行了比较.结果表明,除1个湖泊的评价结果有相邻一级之差外,其余20个湖泊的评价结果完全一致,表明推演出的高维突变势函数形式和归一化公式是合理的.将其用于湖泊富营养化评价具有简单、实用的特点.     

华北地区旱-湿转变周期的动力研究

为研究我国华北地区降水旱涝变化的动力行为与规律，提出了利用气候层次理论，突变点数建模技术和子波分析技术结合来构建其在某一气候层次上的动力模式的方法，并应用该方法对我国华北多个站点降水资料分析和构建其年代层次变化的动力模式。最后应用所得的模式从动力学的角度揭示了我国华北地区的干湿特征。研究结果表明：我国华北地区大部分站点的降水湿润都明显短于旱期，干旱期要持续二十几年，而湿润期仅有几年左右。旱长湿短是华北地区降水的主要特征。     

巷道“封闭式”冲击的尖点突变模型

建立了硬脆性岩巷发生“封闭式”冲击地压的突变模型；给出了冲击发生的临界条件；估算了冲击发生时，岩体释放的地震能。模型能以直观的几何形式描述巷道的缓慢破坏过程和冲击破坏过程。文中的某些处理方法可用于地下工程中环形支架或带底拱支架的稳定性分析中去     

推移质输沙率的非线性研究

目的是从非线性科学角度探讨泥沙运动的规律。通过分析非均匀沙起动的影响因素得到了尖点突变模型的状态变量和控制变量,建立了能描述推移质运动的尖点突变模型。在尖点突变标准方程的基础上,应用尖点突变理论的坐标变换和拓扑变换,导出了输沙强度和水流参数的函数关系式。将输沙强度作为状态变量,水流参数和床沙密实系数作为控制变量。用水槽实验资料和其它推移质输沙率公式进行了对比验证。验证结果表明,计算值与其它推移质输沙率公式和水槽实验结果基本相符,误差一般在-90%～80%之间。说明建立的推移质输沙率公式是合理的,能够反映泥沙的起动和输移规律。     

突变理论在断层检测中的应用尝试

简述了突变理论中的尖点突变模型及其表达式，将地震信号转化为尖点突变的标准形式，在时间域内计算突跳势、突跳时间等突跳参数，发现突跳参数曲线上异常的位置与地下断层的位置有关。在这里尝试将突变理论应用于断层的检测，分析了突变理论在断层检测理论上的可行性，对实际地震剖面进行分析解释，取得了一定的效果。这说明利用突变参数进行断层的检测是可行的，突变理论将为地震资料解释提供一种新的途径。     

四川西部湿地的灾变与防治

以若尔盖、红原为代表的四川西部湿地，近数十年来草场退化、湖泊干涸或缩小、软土硬结、地下水位下降、沙漠化等地质灾害日趋严重。其水文地质原因是局部含水层和水盆结构被破坏，以及不合理的抽取地下水。为此，笔者以“恢复湿地丰水环境、营造和谐自然生态”为目标，阐述对湿地灾变的防治意见。     

非线性多自由度结构地震反应的共振特性与突变分析

由渐近解法，在主坐标中给出了非线性多自由度结构地震反应的渐近解，利用渐近解计算了共振区振幅-频率响应的一系列数值结果，进而分析了系统参数对共振区反应特性的影响及突变性质。地震反应中表现出来的突变性、共振畸变、“路径”效应等复杂的非线性特性，对结构系统的动力特性有重要影响。