中国省域煤矿事故时空分异特征及影响因素研究

煤矿事故给国家和人民带来巨大的生命财产损失,科学把握煤矿事故发生的宏观规律及区域煤矿安全的影响因素有助于促进煤矿安全生产。本文尝试采用GIS空间分析方法开展区域煤矿事故的研究,基于空间自相关性、时空演化规律方法研究了2006-2015年中国省域煤矿事故的时空分异特点,并分析了省域煤矿安全的影响因素及相对风险度。主要结论：①中国各省区之间煤矿事故存在明显的空间自相关性,但随着各省区煤矿安全生产形势改善情况的不同,其自相关性在不断下降;②以空间重心转移曲线分析中国煤矿事故发生的时空演化规律,10年间煤矿事故空间重心向东北方向转移。③重特大事故频发的省区由于监管措施的有力执行往往具有较低的煤矿百万吨死亡率;平均煤矿生产能力低的省区具有较高的煤矿百万吨死亡率;④建立基于解释变量的贝叶斯空间模型,以煤炭百万吨死亡率为指标评估中国各省区煤矿事故相对风险度,中国煤矿安全生产相对危险度存在明显的空间分布规律且各省区差异较大,相对危险度较高的省区主要集中在南方地区,包括湖北、福建等,危险度较低的省区主要集中在中东部地区,包括山西、内蒙古等。     

基于迁移学习方法的山东冷云冰晶特征分布研究

为分析冷云中冰晶的分布特征,揭示冰晶增长演变机制,根据冰晶形状和尺度特征分为8类并进行标注,同时标注1类隔断栏进行数据质量控制,将9类标签图像整合并建立图像集,利用迁移学习VGGNet16方法进行识别训练,经训练模型分类准确率达98%。将模型应用到秋季冷云冰晶特征研究中,选取3次积层混合云和3次层状云降水过程,分析冰晶形状在不同温度区间的占比及冰晶谱变化特征,结果表明,温度通过影响冰晶基面与棱面的比值来决定冰晶初始形状分布,相同温度区间积层混合云内球状冰晶和线型冰晶占比高于层状云,低于-12℃后各类冰晶占比相对固定;积层混合云内线型冰晶直径集中在300~800 μm,冰晶谱呈多峰分布,聚合体直径大于600 μm,冰晶谱首尾两端浓度相当,球状冰晶直径集中在120～300 μm,冰晶谱呈单调下降趋势。     

2023年全球重大天气气候事件

2023年,全球平均气温比工业化前高出约1.45℃(±0.12℃),是有观测记录以来最热的一年。全球海平面继续上升,且全球平均海平面达到了有卫星记录(1993年至今)以来的最高水平,反映了持续的海洋变暖以及冰川和冰盖的融化。北极海冰面积仍远低于常年值,南极海冰面积创下历史新低。巴基斯坦、中国京津冀地区、意大利、巴西圣保罗州北部沿海地区、新西兰北岛等地遭受暴雨洪涝灾害,非洲西北部、中国云南、中美洲和南美洲北部发生严重干旱,南欧、北美、南美、东亚和南亚等地遭遇创纪录高温热浪,欧洲和北美等地遭遇寒流和暴风雪侵袭,强对流天气频繁袭击世界各处,全球热带气旋活动频繁。     

Weak stability boundary trajectories for the deployment of lunar spacecraft constellations

Suitable lunar constellation coverage can be obtained by separating the satellites in inclinations and node angles. It is shown in the paper that a relevant saving of velocity variation ΔV can be achieved using weak stability boundary trajectories. The weakly stable dynamics of such transfers allows the separation of the satellites from the nominal orbit to the required orbit planes with a small amount of ΔV. This paper also shows that only one different set of orbital parameters at Moon can be reached with the same ΔV manoeuvre starting from a nominal trajectory and ending at a fixed periselenium altitude. In fact, such a feature is proved to be common to other simpler dynamical systems, such as the two- and three-body problems.     

Transport of ionizing radiation in terrestrial-like exoplanet atmospheres

The propagation of ionizing radiation through model atmospheres of terrestrial-like exoplanets is studied for a large range of column densities and incident photon energies using a Monte Carlo code we have developed to treat Compton scattering and photoabsorption. Incident spectra from parent star flares, supernovae, and gamma-ray bursts are modeled and compared to energetic particles in importance. Large irradiation events with fluences of 10⁶-10⁹ erg cm⁻² at the conventional habitable zone can occur at a rate from many per day (flares from young low-mass parent stars) to ∼100 per Gyr (supernovae and gamma-ray bursts). We find that terrestrial-like exoplanets with atmospheres thinner than about 100 g cm⁻² block nearly all X-rays, but transmit and reprocess a significant fraction of incident γ-rays, producing a characteristic, flat surficial spectrum. Thick atmospheres (?100 g cm⁻²) efficiently block even γ-rays, but nearly all the incident energy is redistributed into diffuse UV and visible aurora-like emission, increasing the effective atmospheric transmission by many orders of magnitude. Depending on the presence of molecular UV absorbers and atmospheric thickness, up to 10% of the incident energy can reach the surface as UV reemission. For the Earth, between 2×10⁻³ and 4×10⁻² of the incident flux reaches the ground in the biologically effective 200-320 nm range, depending on O₂/O₃ shielding. For atmospheres thicker than ∼50 g cm⁻² in the case of pure Rayleigh scattering and ∼100 g cm⁻² in the case of O₂/O₃ absorption, the UV reemission exceeds the surficial transmitted ionizing radiation. We also discuss the effects of angle of incidence and derive a modified two-stream approximation solution for the UV transfer. Finally, we suggest that transient atmospheric ionization layers can be frequently created at altitudes lower than the equilibrium layers that result from steady irradiation and winds from the parent star. We suggest that these events can produce frequent fluctuations in atmospheric ionization levels and surficial UV fluxes on terrestrial-like planets.     

Scattering properties of planetary regolith analogs

The physics of scattering of electromagnetic waves by media in which the particles are in contact, such as planetary regoliths, has been thought to be relatively well understood when the particles are larger than the wavelength. However, this is not true when the particles are comparable with or smaller than the wavelength. We have measured the scattering parameters of planetary regolith analogs consisting of suites of well-sorted abrasives whose particles ranged from larger to smaller than the wavelength. We measured the variation of reflectance as the phase angle varied from 0.05° to 140°. The following parameters of the media were then deduced: the single scattering albedo, single scattering phase function, transport mean free path, and scattering, absorption, and extinction coefficients. A scattering model based on the equation of radiative transfer was empirically able to describe quantitatively the variation of intensity with angle for each sample. Thus, such models can be used to characterize scattering from regoliths even when the particles are smaller than the wavelength. The scattering parameters were remarkably insensitive to particle size. These results are contrary to theoretical predictions, but are consistent with earlier measurements of alumina abrasives that were restricted to small phase angles. They imply that a basic assumption made by virtually all regolith scattering models, that the regolith particles are the fundamental scattering units of the medium, is incorrect. Our understanding of scattering by regoliths appears to be incomplete, even when the particles are larger than the wavelength.     

On the Line Formation in Stellar Magnetized Atmospheres

1 INTRODUCTIONIn the previous paper (on et al. 1999, hereafter Paper I), we investigated the wavelength-dependence of four colltribution functions (CFs) derived from dmerent formal solutions andreferring to different emergellt quantities in the unpolarized case. Because one cannot generallyassign a single formation region to the whole line band in a real stellar atmosphere, e.g., the solaratmosphere, instead, the line formation region can be defined as the layers deviating farthestfrom t…