The relationship between runoff rate and lag time and the effects of surface treatments at the plot scale

Abstract

The manner in which both the seasonal and regional variations in storm duration, intensity and inter-storm period manifest in the runoff response of agricultural water supply catchments is investigated. High-resolution rainfall data were analysed for a network of 17 raingauges located across the semiarid (200–500 mm year^?1) agricultural districts of southwest Western Australia. Seasonal variations in mean storm duration, mean rainfall intensity and mean inter-storm period were modelled using simple periodic functions whose parameters were then also regressed with geographic and climatic indices to create spatial fields for each of these statistics. Based on these mean values, a continuous rainfall time series can be synthesized for any location within the region, with the rainfall depth within each storm being downscaled to 5-min time steps using a bounded random cascade model. Runoff from six different catchment surface treatments (“engineered” catchments) was simulated using a conceptual water-balance model, validated using rainfall—runoff data from an experimental field site. The expected yield of the various catchment types at any other location within the study region is then simulated using the above rainfall—runoff model and synthetic rainfall and potential evaporation time series under a range of climatic settings representative of regional climate variation. The resulting coupled model can be used to estimate the catchment area required to yield an acceptable volume of runoff for any location and dam capacity, at a specified reliability level, thus providing a tool for water resource managers to design engineered catchments for water supply. Although the model presented is specific for Western Australia's southwest region, the methodology itself is applicable to other locations.     

Experimental study of the zooplankton impact on the trophic structure of phytoplankton and the microbial assemblages in a temperate wetland (Argentina)

An experimental study using mesocosms was conducted in the main shallow lake of a temperate wetland (Otamendi Natural Reserve, Argentina) to analyse the impact of zooplankton on phytoplankton and the microbial assemblages. The lake is characterised by the presence of a fluctuating cover of floating macrophytes, whose shading effects shape the phytoplakton community and the ecosystem functioning, which was absent during the study period. The experiment was run in situ using polyethylene bags, comparing treatments with and without zooplankton. The cascade effect of zooplankton on phytoplankton and the lower levels of the microbial food web (ciliates, heterotrophic nanoflagellates (HNF) and picoplankton) were analysed.A significant zooplankton grazing on the nano-phytoplankton fraction (3–30 μm) was observed. Conversely, large algae (filamentous cyanobacteria, colonial chlorophytes and large diatoms) increased in all mesocosms until day 10, suggesting that they were not actively grazed by zooplankton during this period. However, from day 10 until day 17 this fraction decreased in the enclosures with mesozooplankton, probably due to an increase in the abundance of large herbivores.The results of the experiment would also indicate a trophic cascade effect on the lower levels of the microbial community. In the treatment where zooplankton was removed, the abundance of ciliates followed the same increasing pattern as the abundance of HNF, but with a time lag in its response. In the enclosures without zooplankton, HNF remained relatively constant throughout the experiment, whereas ciliates strongly decrease during the last week. Total picoplankton abundance increased in the enclosures with mesozooplankton, thus supporting the existence of a four-link trophic cascade (copepods–microzooplankton–HNF–picoplankton). Zooplankton composition changed significantly from the beginning until the end of the experiment; cyclopoid nauplii and rotifers were notoriously dominant at t₀, whereas 10 days later the community showed a more equitable proportion of cyclopoids, calanoids, nauplii, cladocerans and rotifers.     

Preservation of rainfall properties in stochastic disaggregation by a simple random cascade model

We analyse properties of a simple discrete multiplicative random cascade model for rainfall disaggregation in urban hydrology. Two types of cascade models (canonical and microcanonical) are applied to the stochastic fine graining of rainfall observations into high resolution data. In particular, we analyse the disaggregation of 1280-min into 10-min data for a 20-year record period (Zurich raingauge, 1979–1998). Differences between the models and parameter estimation techniques are explored on simulated data with a special focus on three important properties of observed rainfall: distribution, intermittency, and extremes. The canonical models are overall better at preserving the distribution of rainfall at the 10-min scale. It is demonstrated that the growth of intermittency across scales is preserved well with all studied models. The ability of the models to reproduce rainfall extremes is a fundamental requirement in disaggregation. The studied models preserved annual rainfall maxima satisfactorily for short durations; however, the performance deteriorated for longer durations. The canonical models performed substantially better in capturing the variability in rainfall. The results are encouraging considering the parsimonious nature of the models and simple parameter estimation.     

水库调度预报服务风险分析及其应用

水库上游入库洪水量是水库风险调度的主要风险因素。根据灾害风险分析原理,对水库调度预报服务存在的风险进行分析,结果表明降水量预报值和径流系数估算值的准确率是影响水库调度预报服务的风险要素,从而在此基础上建立了实用风险分析模型。同时介绍了在0216号台风“森拉克”影响时,该风险分析模型在水库调度预报服务中的应用,并计算了经济效益。该模型对水利部门调度决策有一定的参考价值。     

Multifractal Distribution of Eigenvalues and Eigenvectors from 2D Multiplicative Cascade Multifractal Fields

Two-dimensional fields (maps) generated by isotropic and anisotropic multiplicative cascade multifractal processes are common in many fields including oceans, atmosphere, the climate and solid earth geophysics. Modeling the anisotropic scaling property and heterogeneity of these types of fields are essential for understanding the underlying processes. The paper explicitly derives the eigenvalues and eigenvectors from these types of fields and proves that the eigenvalues and eigenvectors are described by non-conservative multifractal distributions. This results in a new multifractal model implemented in eigen domain to characterize 2D fields not only with respect to overall heterogeneity and singularity as characterized by the ordinary multifractal model applied to the field itself, but also with respect to orientational heterogeneity of the field. It may also result in a new way to characterize the distribution of extreme large eigenvalues involved in other studies such as principal component analysis. A newly defined operator and its properties as derived in this paper may be useful for studying other types of multifractal cascade processes.     

Discrete multifractals

The concept of multifractal modeling has been used intensively in various fields of science for characterizing measures with self- similarity. It has been shown that multifractal modeling provides powerful tools for characterizing patterns in the spatial distribution of geological quantities and objects. Existing multifractal models were proposed for the purpose of handling spatially intertwined fractals with continuous fractal spectrum f(α) (or continuous codimension function C(γ)). In this paper, these conventional multifractals are termed “continuous multifractals” whereas multifractals with discrete fractal dimensions are termed “discrete multifractals.” The properties of discrete multifractals are investigated. It is shown by various artificial examples and a case study of stratigraphy of Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) site 645 that spatially intertwined fractals/multifractals indeed can have discrete fractal dimensions. Histogram-and moment-based techniques are proposed for discrete multifractal modeling and illustrated using the artificial examples. The new concept of discrete multifractals and associated multifractal modeling yields not only techniques for characterizing multifractals with discrete fractal dimensions but it also provides insight into the relationships between fractals, bifractals, and multifractals.     

梯级水电开发对大通河流域洪水过程的影响分析

应用大通河流域实测洪水资料和水利普查数据,定性和定量分析了梯级水电开发对流域洪水过程和洪水特征的影响,建立了梯级水电站数量与洪水涨落率、涨落频次的数学关系模型。结果表明:随着流域水电站数量的增多,洪水过程变化频繁,洪水涨落率增大,涨落频次增多;梯级水电开发使流域最大洪峰流量增大了19.7%~21.5%,最大洪峰传播时间减少了6.1%,而对次洪水总量的影响较小。研究水文过程受人类活动的影响规律,对加强流域水电站统一调度、水能水资源可持续利用和水生态文明建设具有十分重要的意义。     

气候变化对澜沧江下游梯级电站发电及生态调度的影响

近年来伴随气候变化地表径流呈极端化分布,为水电生态调度带来了挑战。为探究气候变化对电站发电和生态调度的影响、发电和生态目标间协调关系对气候变化的响应,以澜沧江下游梯级电站为例,结合多模式多情景未来径流预估结果及水库发电调度模型,针对发电及生态效益目标实施了单/多目标最优化。结果表明:在气候变化影响下,未来澜沧江径流总量将有所增加,水文变率将显著增强,河道生态所受影响也将增大;电站发电保证率及生态流量破坏率指标受不同调度方案的影响程度较气候变化影响更高,未来发电和生态效益的冲突依然存在;气候变化导致的水文变率增强可加剧发电与生态效益间的冲突,导致保持现有发电效益的同时增大对河道生态的影响。     

3S技术与智能交通

行人检测是视频大数据中提取信息的关键技术之一,是视频大数据挖掘的关键环节。提出了一种基于稀疏多尺度分割和级联形变模型的行人检测算法。首先设计基于图像纹理的稀疏多尺度分割算法提取潜在行人区域,完成初级多尺度检测;同时缩小检测范围,剔除大量背景区域;再基于级联形变模型在候选特征区域进行精细检测,最终实现由粗到细的快速行人检测。在TUD-Crossing和TUD-Pedestrian等公开数据集上对算法进行了测试。实验结果表明,本文算法降低了虚警率,提升了检测速度。     

鳌江流域洪水预报调度决策支持系统

位于浙江省温州市南部的鳌江是一条洪水灾害频繁的河流.介绍了鳌江流域洪水预报调度决策支持系统的总体设计、功能模块、逻辑结构、模型组织以及应用水文学及水力学的方法对流域洪水演进过程进行模拟计算的方法等,建立了一个可以在中小流域推广应用的防洪预报调度系统.