基于珠海实证的城市旅游增长极限分析框架

城市旅游是城市的一个开放、高流动的子系统,在一定时期内是相对稳定,有增长极限的。城市旅游增长极限受到供需极限影响,当旅游需求超过供给时,出现过度旅游;而当供给超过需求,就会导致过度旅游化。城市旅游需求增长极限呈现阶梯式,只有当影响城市旅游需求增长的长期因素发生持续重大变化时,城市旅游需求增长才可能突破原有的极限,进入一个新的阶段。城市旅游需求极限规定了城市旅游供给极限,决定了城市在一定时期内适合开发的景区、酒店、餐饮、购物等旅游设施规模。本文基于珠海的实证分析表明,过去十几年,由于旅游供需两方面影响因素缺乏持续重大的变化,城市功能和地位、城市主题和特色等因素相对稳定,加之受到区域其他城市的激烈竞争,珠海中高端旅游需求相对稳定,星级酒店等中高端旅游产品面临增长极限。此时,新增旅游景区和星级酒店并不会带来过夜旅游需求的实质增长,反而可能加剧现阶段旅游供需的失衡,造成过度旅游化。本文也讨论了超越旅游极限的条件以及旅游增长与旅游发展的关系,并进一步建议了旅游统计的改革举措。     

China’s rural revitalization and development: Theory,technology and management

Journal of Geographical Sciences - The urban-rural transformation from dichotomy to integration is a gradual process. Like rural areas in many countries, Chinese rural society is experiencing a...     

基于生态足迹的格网化生态承载力评价——以衡水市为例

针对行政单元生态承载力评价不能精细反映区域内部生态状况的差异和局部细节特征的问题,难以满足精细管控生态承载力的需要,本文提出了格网化生态承载力评价方法。基于生态足迹模型,结合人口空间分布模型,借助GIS空间分析技术,从格网角度对生态足迹和生态承载力进行定量估算与空间格局分析,并以衡水市为例进行试验验证。结果表明,格网尺度生态承载力评价方法与区域生态承载力评价方法相比更符合真实情况。从格网尺度看,衡水市生态足迹分布圈层特点,生态承载力呈离散分布特征。生态赤字状况表现出明显的异质性,沿滏东排河和滏阳河两侧呈条带状分布。衡水市大部分地区处于生态赤字临界状态,生态状况亟须得到保护。     

论海水养殖的养殖容量

养殖容量应是一个包含环境、生态和经济等诸多因素的综合概念。养殖容量可定义为：单位水体内在保护环境、节约资源和保证应有效益等各个方面都符合可持续发展要求的最大养殖量。合理地利用养殖容量就是要形成一个结构优化和功能高效的养殖生态系统,使所投入的物质得到反复循环、初级生产力得到多途径利用,从而提高生产效益和养殖效益,避免物质的浪费及自身和环境的污染。从养殖生态系统运转的驱动因素来分析,主要靠太阳辐射直接提供能源的系统,如海带养殖系统、扇贝筏式养殖系统等,可称为自养型或自然营养型养殖系统;主要靠人工投饲来提供能源的系统,如对虾池塘养殖系统、吃食性鱼类网箱养殖系统等,可称为异养型或人工营养型养殖系统。这两类养殖系统在生态学上有很多互补性,它们的复合可提高养殖水体的养殖容量。     

Theoretical aspects of cap-rock and fault seals for single- and two-phase hydrocarbon columns

Cap-rock seals can be divided genetically into those that fail by capillary leakage (membrane seals) and those whose capillary entry pressures are so high that seal failure preferentially occurs by fracturing and/or wedging open of faults (hydraulic seals). A given membrane seal can trap a larger oil column than gas column at shallow depths, but below a critical depth (interval), gas is more easily sealed than oil. This critical depth increases with lower API gravity, lower oil GOR and overpressured conditions (for the gas phase). These observations arise from a series of modelling studies of membrane sealing and can be conveniently represented using pressure/ depth (P/D) profiles through sealed hydrocarbon columns. P/D diagrams have been applied to the more complex situation of the membrane sealing of a gas cap underlain by an oil rim; at seal capacity, such a two-phase column will be always greater than if only oil or gas occurs below the seal.These conclusions contrast with those for hydraulic seals where the seal capacity to oil always exceeds that for gas. Moreover, a trapped two-phase column, at hydraulic seal capacity will be less than the maximum-allowed oil-only column, but more than the maximum gas-only column. Unlike membrane seals, hydraulic seal capacity should be directly related to cap-rock thickness, in addition to the magnitude of the minimum effective stress in the sealing layer and the degree of overpressure development in the sequence as a whole.Fault-related seals are effectively analogous to membrane cap-rocks which have been tilted to the angle of the fault plane. Consequently, all of the above conclusions derived for membrane cap-rocks apply to both sealing faults sensu stricto (fault plane itself seals) and juxtaposition faults (hydrocarbon trapped laterally against a juxtaposed sealing unit). The maximum-allowed two-phase column trapped by a sealing fault is greater than for equivalent oil-only and gas-only columns, but less than that predicted for a horizontal membrane cap-rock under similar conditions. Where a two-phase column is present on both sides of a sealing fault (which is at two-phase seal capacity), a deeper oil/water contact (OWC) in one fault block is associated with a deeper gas/oil contact (GOC) compared with the adjacent fault block. If the fault seal is discontinuous in the gas leg, however, the deeper OWC is accompanied by a shallower GOC, whereas a break in the fault seal in the oil leg results in a common OWC in both fault blocks, even though separate GOC's exist. Schematic P/D profiles are provided for each of the above situations from which a series of fundamental equations governing single- and two-phase cap-rock and fault seal capacities can be derived. These relationships may have significant implications for exploration prospect appraisal exercises where more meaningful estimates of differential seal capacities can be made.The membrane sealing theory developed herein assumes that all reservoirs and seals are water-wet and no hydrodynamic flow exists. The conclusions on membrane seal capacity place constraints on the migration efficiency of gas along low-permeabiligy paths at depth where fracturing, wedging open of faults and/or diffusion process may be more important. Contrary to previous assertions, it is speculated that leakage of hydrocarbons through membrane seals occurs in distinct pulses such that the seal is at or near the theoretically calculated seal capacity, once this has been initially attained.Finally, the developed seal theory and P/D profile concepts are applied to a series of development geological problems including the effects of differential depletion, and degree of aquifer support, on sealing fault leakage, and the evaluation of barriers to vertical cross-flow using RFT profiles through depleted reservoirs. It is shown that imbibition processes and dynamic effects related to active cross-flow across such barriers often preclude quantitative analysis and solution of these problems for which simulation studies are usually required.     

水流挟沙力分析与探讨

水流挟沙力是悬沙输运计算中非常重要的问题之一,其计算形式常采用基于重力理论的经验和半经验公式.本文针对目前广泛采用的2种挟沙力关系式,选用4组实验水槽数据和2组天然河道实测资料分别讨论其关联性.结果表明,不论指数m在其取值范围内取何值,2个表达式皆存在一定的函数关联性.且当指数m取1和2/3时,直接表现出很强的线性关联.在挟沙力计算中采用流速的平方关系式,物理意义清晰,形式简单.在实际应用时,适当选取系数,挟沙力采用形式简单的平方关系式是完全可行的.     

昆承湖水流水质计算分析

在模拟昆承湖水流流场的基础上,模拟化学需氧量(CODMn)在湖水中的扩散情况;同时,利用昆承湖实测资料和水质的浓度场计算结果,得到其枯季环境容量.可以看出,昆承湖的流速较小,且方向由西北流向东南,可能是受长江径流和湖底西北高东南低的地形特征影响;从昆承湖的CODMn浓度实测值和计算值中,可以看出小于其水环境质量标准限值.这将进一步为实现常熟市湖泊水环境质量的不断提高、生态状况的持续改善与科学管理提供依据.     

湛江流沙湾马氏珠母贝的养殖容量

2008年3月—2009年1月调查分析流沙湾浮游动植物的生物量、叶绿素a含量、初级生产力、马氏珠母贝Pinctada martensii含壳重与鲜组织重的比值、养殖贝类和野生滤食性动物的滤水率、潮间带和潮下带底栖贝类及吊养区附着滤食性动物现存量等,应用营养动态模型和贝类养殖容量估算模型估算滤食性动物的总容量,扣除野生滤食性动物现存量,最终确定马氏珠母贝的养殖容量。结果显示,2种模型估算马氏珠母贝的养殖容量分别为19637.5t和20126.4t,平均养殖容量19881.95t。依据流沙湾马氏珠母贝的通常养殖密度(1.05×105个.hm-2)和平均商品规格(41g.个-1)计算,流沙湾马氏珠母贝的适养面积为461.83hm2。     

基于GIS的近海剩余环境容量计算模型

探讨一种基于GIS 克里格插值方法的剩余环境容量计算方法, 通过GIS 地统计分析插值模型将水质模拟问题转化为数学统计问题, 充分利用水质水体、沉积物监测数据, 采用克里格插值法对污染物浓度和水深在局部海域内进行插值, 将研究区域离散为一个个的均匀栅格单元, 比较每个单元污染物浓度与水质目标之间的差值, 从而估算得到研究海域的剩余环境容量。通过2009 年8 月锦州湾剩余环境容量的计算实例表明, 基于GIS 的剩余环境容量初步计算方法在资料缺乏地区是十分简便、有效的, 这为海域开发利用区环境管理与规划提供了参考。     

基于能量法的大直径超长钢管桩溜桩问题分析

海洋桩平台采用大直径超长桩,由于桩、锤的重量很大,沉桩过程中经常发生溜桩现象。因此为了便于打桩控制,判断溜桩的范围是非常必要的。结合实际工程对溜桩的过程和发生机理进行了探讨;利用PCPT原位测量资料,基于能量法建立了判断溜桩范围的分析计算方法。针对南海油田典型的平台桩沉桩过程中的溜桩问题进行了分析计算,验证了所提出的方法的合理性,可供桩设计以及沉桩施工参考。