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991.
Four policies might close the gap between the global GHG emissions expected for 2020 on the basis of current (2013) policies and the reduced emissions that will be needed if the long-term global temperature increase can be kept below the 2 °C internationally agreed limit. The four policies are (1) specific energy efficiency measures, (2) closure of the least-efficient coal-fired power plants, (3) minimizing methane emissions from upstream oil and gas production, and (4) accelerating the (partial) phase-out of subsidies to fossil-fuel consumption. In this article we test the hypothesis of the International Energy Agency (IEA) that these policies will not result in a loss of gross domestic product (GDP) and we estimate their employment effects using the E3MG global macro-econometric model. Using a set of scenarios we assess each policy individually and then consider the outcomes if all four policies were implemented simultaneously. We find that the policies are insufficient to close the emissions gap, with an overall emission reduction that is 30% less than that found by the IEA. World GDP is 0.5% higher in 2020, with about 6 million net jobs created by 2020 and unemployment reduced.

Policy relevance

The gap between GHG emissions expected under the Copenhagen and Cancun Agreements and that needed for emissions trajectories to have a reasonable chance of reaching the 2 °C target requires additional policies if it is to be closed. This article uses a global simulation model E3MG to analyse a set of policies proposed by the IEA to close the gap and assesses their macroeconomic effects as well as their feasibility in closing the gap. It complements the IEA assessment by estimating the GDP and employment implications separately by the different policies year by year to 2020, by major industries, and by 21 world regions.  相似文献   

992.
This article assesses Japan's carbon budgets up to 2100 in the global efforts to achieve the 2?°C target under different effort-sharing approaches based on long-term GHG mitigation scenarios published in 13 studies. The article also presents exemplary emission trajectories for Japan to stay within the calculated budget.

The literature data allow for an in-depth analysis of four effort-sharing categories. For a 450?ppm CO2e stabilization level, the remaining carbon budgets for 2014–2100 were negative for the effort-sharing category that emphasizes historical responsibility and capability. For the other three, including the reference ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, which showed the highest budget range among all categories, the calculated remaining budgets (20th and 80th percentile ranges) would run out in 21–29 years if the current emission levels were to continue. A 550?ppm CO2e stabilization level increases the budgets by 6–17 years-equivalent of the current emissions, depending on the effort-sharing category. Exemplary emissions trajectories staying within the calculated budgets were also analysed for ‘Equality’, ‘Staged’ and ‘Cost-effectiveness’ categories. For a 450?ppm CO2e stabilization level, Japan's GHG emissions would need to phase out sometime between 2045 and 2080, and the emission reductions in 2030 would be at least 16–29% below 1990 levels even for the most lenient ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, and 29–36% for the ‘Equality’ category. The start year for accelerated emissions reductions and the emissions convergence level in the long term have major impact on the emissions reduction rates that need to be achieved, particularly in the case of smaller budgets.

Policy relevance

In previous climate mitigation target formulation processes for 2020 and 2030 in Japan, neither equity principles nor long-term management of cumulative GHG emissions was at the centre of discussion. This article quantitatively assesses how much more GHGs Japan can emit by 2100 to achieve the 2?°C target in light of different effort-sharing approaches, and how Japan's GHG emissions can be managed up to 2100. The long-term implications of recent energy policy developments following the Fukushima nuclear disaster for the calculated carbon budgets are also discussed.  相似文献   
993.
硫酸参与的长江流域岩石化学风化速率与大气CO2消耗   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
流域的岩石化学风化过程是全球碳循环中的重要环节。以往的流域水化学碳汇通量估算大多是基于碳酸的风化作用。而实际上,硫酸和碳酸一样,也参与了流域碳元素的地球化学循环,从而对全球碳循环过程产生影响。长江流域水体近几年出现酸化现象,大部分河段SO42-和Ca2+含量增高,其对应的岩石风化过程和大气CO2消耗速率也发生变化。文章对长江干流及主要支流2013年不同季节的离子组成进行监测,利用水化学平衡法和Galy估算模型,对长江流域岩石化学风化速率和CO2消耗通量进行了估算,对硫酸参与下的长江流域岩石风化和碳循环过程进行了分析。结果表明,长江流域水体离子主要来源于硅酸盐岩风化和碳酸盐岩风化。其中碳酸盐岩风化对河水离子贡献率为92%。在硅酸盐岩广泛分布的赣江流域,碳酸盐岩风化离子贡献也达85%。分析表明,硫酸参与了长江流域的岩石风化过程,对水体中离子产生一定影响。硫酸的参与加快了碳酸盐岩的化学风化速率,平均提高约30%,但是使流域大气CO2消耗速率降低。在不考虑蒸发岩溶蚀作用下,平均从516×103 mol/km2·a降至356×103 mol/km2·a,降低约31%。在各支流中,硫酸对乌江流域碳酸盐岩的风化和碳循环的影响最大,而对雅砻江的影响最小,这与乌江流域的含煤地层、矿床硫化物及大气酸沉降有关。  相似文献   
994.
张陶  蒲俊兵  袁道先  李建鸿 《地质学报》2016,90(8):1965-1976
为了解岩溶区控制溪流中溶解无机碳(DIC)和NO_3~-昼夜变化的生物地球化学过程以及DIC和NO_3~-日变化量,于2014-07-22~2014-07-24期间,在广西壮族自治区融安县官村溪流中包括地下河出口(CK)和下游雷崖村(LY)设置两个监测点同时对水体物理化学参数以及C、N同位素(δ~(13) CDIC、δ~(15) N-NO_3~-和δ~(18) O-NO_3~-)展开了为期2d的高分辨率昼夜监测采样工作。结果发现CK点各物理化学参数没有表现出昼夜变化,但是LY点Ca2+、DIC以及PCO2表现出明显的昼夜变化规律,即白天下降夜间上升且与DO和pH表现出明显的负相关关系。相对于CK点,在白天水生光合生物光合作用导致LY点DIC下降的同时δ~(13) CDIC上升,而在夜间呼吸作用导致LY点DIC上升的同时δ~(13) CDIC下降且部分时间段要低于CK点δ~(13) CDIC值。溪流中的NH4+在监测期间基本上都在下降而NO_3~-离子在夜间和上午时间段都在上升,δ~(15) N-NO_3~-却表现出下降的趋势,且比较接近δ~(15) N-NO_3~-初始值,而NO_3~-离子在下午时间段出现下降的趋势。结果表明溪流中DIC昼夜变化主要受到水生植物的光合作用和呼吸作用控制,且通过质量平衡方程计算得知溪流中由于光合作用吸收无机碳而转为有机碳的量为0.94kgC/d,这部分有机碳可以形成相对长期稳定的自然C汇。溪流在夜间和上午时间段发生了N的硝化作用,增长量为2.08kgN/d,但在下午时间段(12:00~18:00)发生了N的同化作用,损失量为0.42kgN/d。溪流输出的NO_3~--N的量为1.66kgN/d,表明在富碳、富钙的岩溶溪流中,有利于水生光合生物的生长,促进N的同化作用的发生,从而减少溪流输出NO_3~--N的量,说明岩溶区溪流N的生物地球化学过程可能在昼夜尺度上改变水质。  相似文献   
995.
Kajan subvolcanic rocks in the Urumieh–Dokhtar magmatic arc (UDMA), Central Iran, form a Late Miocene-Pliocene shallow-level intrusion. These subvolcanics correspond to a variety of intermediate and felsic rocks, comprising quartz diorite, quartz monzodiorite, tonalite and granite. These lithologies are medium-K calc-alkaline, with SiO2 (wt.%) varying from 52% (wt.%) to 75 (wt.%). The major element chemical data also show that MgO, CaO, TiO2, P2O5, MnO, Al2O3 and Fe2O3 define linear trends with negative slopes against SiO2, whilst Na2O and K2O are positively correlated with silica. Contents of incompatible trace elements (e.g. Ba, Rb, Nb, La and Zr) become higher with increasing SiO2, whereas Sr shows an opposite behaviour. Chondrite-normalized multi-element patterns show enrichment in LILE relative to HFSE and troughs in Nb, P and Ti. These observations are typical of subduction related magmas that formed in an active continental margin. The Kajan rocks show a strong affinity with calc-alkaline arc magmas, confirmed by REE fractionation (LaN/YbN = 4.5–6.4) with moderate HREE fractionation (SmN/YbN = 1.08–1.57). The negative Eu anomaly (Eu/Eu* <1), the low to moderate Sr content (< 400 ppm) and the Dy/Yb values reflect plagioclase and hornblende (+- clinopyroxene) fractionation from a calc-alkaline melt Whole–rock Sr and Nd isotope analyses show that the 87Sr/86Sr initial ratios vary from 0.704432 to 0.705989, and the 143Nd/144Nd initial ratios go from 0.512722 to 0.512813. All the studied samples have similar Sr-Nd isotopes, indicating an origin from a similar source, with granite samples that has more radiogenic Sr and low radiogenic Nd isotopes, suggesting a minor interaction with upper crust during magma ascent. The Kajan subvolcanic rocks plot within the depleted mantle quadrant of the conventional Sr-Nd isotope diagram, a compositional region corresponding to mantle-derived igneous rocks.  相似文献   
996.
Invasive plants pose significant threats to biodiversity and ecosystem function globally, leading to costly monitoring and management effort. While remote sensing promises cost-effective, robust and repeatable monitoring tools to support intervention, it has been largely restricted to airborne platforms that have higher spatial and spectral resolutions, but which lack the coverage and versatility of satellite-based platforms. This study tests the ability of the WorldView-2 (WV2) eight-band satellite sensor for detecting the invasive shrub mesquite (Prosopis spp.) in the north-west Pilbara region of Australia. Detectability was challenged by the target taxa being largely defoliated by a leaf-tying biological control agent (Gelechiidae: Evippe sp. #1) and the presence of other shrubs and trees. Variable importance in the projection (VIP) scores identified bands offering greatest capacity for discrimination were those covering the near-infrared, red, and red-edge wavelengths. Wavelengths between 400 nm and 630 nm (coastal blue, blue, green, yellow) were not useful for species level discrimination in this case. Classification accuracy was tested on three band sets (simulated standard multispectral, all bands, and bands with VIP scores ≥1). Overall accuracies were comparable amongst all band-sets (Kappa = 0.71–0.77). However, mesquite omission rates were unacceptably high (21.3%) when using all eight bands relative to the simulated standard multispectral band-set (9.5%) and the band-set informed by VIP scores (11.9%). An incremental cover evaluation on the latter identified most omissions to be for objects <16 m2. Mesquite omissions reduced to 2.6% and overall accuracy significantly improved (Kappa = 0.88) when these objects were left out of the confusion matrix calculations. Very high mapping accuracy of objects >16 m2 allows application for mapping mesquite shrubs and coalesced stands, the former not previously possible, even with 3 m resolution hyperspectral imagery. WV2 imagery offers excellent portability potential for detecting other species where spectral/spatial resolution or coverage has been an impediment. New generation satellite sensors are removing barriers previously preventing widespread adoption of remote sensing technologies in natural resource management.  相似文献   
997.
There is a pressing need to determine the relationships between driving variables and landscape transformations. Human activities shape landscapes and turn them into complex assemblages of highly diverse structures. Other factors, including climate and topography, also play significant roles in landscape transitions, and identifying the interactions among the variables is critical to environmental management. This study analyzed the configurations and spatial-temporal processes of landscape changes from 1998 to 2011 under different anthropogenic disturbances, identified the main variables that determine the landscape patterns and transitions, and quantified the relationships between pairs of driver sets. Landsat images of Baicheng and Tekes from 1998, 2006 and 2011 were used to classify landscapes by supervised classification. Redundancy analysis (RDA) and variation partitioning were performed to identify the main driving forces and to quantify the unique, shared, and total explained variation of the sets of variables. The results indicate that the proportions of otherwise identical landscapes in Baicheng and Tekes were very different. The area of the grassland in Tekes was much larger than that of the cropland; however, the differences between the grassland and cropland in Baicheng were not as pronounced. Much of the grassland in Tekes was located in an area that was near residents, whereas most of the grassland in Baicheng was far from residents. The slope, elevation, annual precipitation, annual temperature, and distance to the nearest resident were strong driving forces influencing the patterns and transitions of the landscapes. The results of the variation partitioning indicated complex interrelationships among all of the pairs of driver sets. All of the variable sets had significant explanatory roles, most of which had both unique and shared variations with the others. The results of this study can assist policy makers and planners in implementing sustainable landscape management and effective protection strategies.  相似文献   
998.
As an important canopy structure indicator, leaf area index (LAI) proved to be of considerable implications for forest ecosystem and ecological studies, and efficient techniques for accurate LAI acquisitions have long been highlighted. Airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR), often termed as airborne laser scanning (ALS), once was extensively investigated for this task but showed limited performance due to its low sampling density. Now, ALS systems exhibit more competing capacities such as high density and multi-return sampling, and hence, people began to ask the questions like—“can ALS now work better on the task of LAI prediction?” As a re-examination, this study investigated the feasibility of LAI retrievals at the individual tree level based on high density and multi-return ALS, by directly considering the vertical distributions of laser points lying within each tree crown instead of by proposing feature variables such as quantiles involving laser point distribution modes at the plot level. The examination was operated in the case of four tree species (i.e. Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris, Populus tremula and Quercus robur) in a mixed forest, with their LAI-related reference data collected by using static terrestrial laser scanning (TLS). In light of the differences between ALS- and TLS-based LAI characterizations, the methods of voxelization of 3D scattered laser points, effective LAI (LAIe) that does not distinguish branches from canopies and unified cumulative LAI (ucLAI) that is often used to characterize the vertical profiles of crown leaf area densities (LADs) was used; then, the relationships between the ALS- and TLS-derived LAIes were determined, and so did ucLAIs. Tests indicated that the tree-level LAIes for the four tree species can be estimated based on the used airborne LiDAR (R2 = 0.07, 0.26, 0.43 and 0.21, respectively) and their ucLAIs can also be derived. Overall, this study has validated the usage of the contemporary high density multi-return airborne LiDARs for LAIe and LAD profile retrievals at the individual tree level, and the contribution are of high potential for advancing forest ecosystem modeling and ecological understanding.  相似文献   
999.
巫兆聪  巫远  张熠  杨帆 《测绘学报》2016,45(7):841-849
传统光学卫星国土观测覆盖评估建立在卫星对地理想覆盖的基础上,并未考虑卫星存储、星地数据传输、观测时长等物理量及观测区域气象因素对于覆盖性能的影响。本文针对光学遥感卫星的国土观测需求.建立国土观测有效覆盖能力评估指标体系,根据卫星数据存储能力、星地数据传输能力、卫星单圈最大观测时长、卫星观测太阳高度角等性能参数,提出了基于物理性能约束下的有效覆盖计算方法。根据气象台站历年气象数据,提出了气象约束因子的计算方法。综合考虑卫星物理性能约束与观测区域气象约束,计算光学遥感卫星对地观测有效覆盖能力。最后根据专家设计的光学遥感卫星国土观测有效覆盖能力评估指标权重,利用层次分析法(AHP)评估光学遥感卫星系统对于国土观测的需求满足程度。试验结果表明,本文方法对于国土观测有效覆盖的估算和评价结果更加精确,更接近于国土观测的实际应用需求,为对地观测有效覆盖能力评估提供了一种更为精确的可行方案。  相似文献   
1000.
采用多卫星导航系统组合导航,定位精度和系统可靠性会大幅提升,但导航定位运算量也会成倍增长。为解决多系统组合导航定位精度与实时性之间的矛盾,提出一种新的选星方法。新方法不追求最小GDOP值,而是以满足导航定位精度的GDOP值为前提,结合模糊理论中隶属函数的思想,按卫星在星座中均匀分布为原则进行选星。推导伪距测量的误差模型,分析了GDOP与测量误差之间的关系。北斗、GPS和GLONASS三系统组合导航选星实验结果表明,在不超过3次求解GDOP值的情况下,新方法能以不小于98%的概率得到GDOP≤4。  相似文献   
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