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Results of a single group participating in an international experiment are analyzed. The experiment served to verify computational predictions of the ground-motion variations due to near-surface geological effects at a site established for that purpose by the California Department of Conservation. Based on an acceleration record at a rock location, and geotechnical model of medium, records at the other locations of a nearby sedimentary deposit were predicted. A 2-D finite-difference sensitivity analysis suggested that the lateral wave-propagation effects are negligibly small, and locally 1-D computations are sufficient for the present site. Those computations are compared with observations not available to the authors during the blind prediction. Peak accelerations, peak velocities and RMS accelerations were predicted with errors less than 159%, 114% and 62%, respectively. Maxima of the response spectra were fitted within a factor of 2. The predicted and observed Husid's plots (i.e., the normalized cumulative plots of the acceleration squared) have the correlation coefficients 0.98. The detected misfits do not show any simple relation to the instrument location, component, frequency, or time. 相似文献
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Chang-Guk Sun Sung-Ho Chun Tae-Gyun Ha Choong-Ki Chung Dong-Soo Kim 《Computers and Geotechnics》2008,35(3):436-449
An integrated GIS-based tool (GTIS) was constructed to estimate site effects related to the earthquake hazards in the Gyeongju area of Korea. To build the GTIS for the study area, intensive site investigations and geotechnical data collections were performed and a walk-over site survey was additionally carried out to acquire surface geo-knowledge data in accordance with the procedure developed to build the GTIS. For practical applications of the GTIS used to estimate the site effects associated with the amplification of ground motion, seismic microzoning maps of the characteristic site period and the mean shear wave velocity to a depth of 30 m were created and presented as a regional synthetic strategy addressing earthquake-induced hazards. Additionally, based on one-dimensional site response analyses, various seismic microzoning maps for short- and mid-period amplification potentials were created for the study area. Case studies of seismic microzonations in the Gyeongju area verified the usefulness of the GTIS for predicting seismic hazards in the region. 相似文献
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Exurbia from the bottom-up: Confronting empirical challenges to characterizing a complex system 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Daniel G. Brown Derek T. Robinson Li An Moira Zellner William Rand Rick Riolo Bobbi Low 《Geoforum》2008,39(2):805-818
We describe empirical results from a multi-disciplinary project that support modeling complex processes of land-use and land-cover change in exurban parts of Southeastern Michigan. Based on two different conceptual models, one describing the evolution of urban form as a consequence of residential preferences and the other describing land-cover changes in an exurban township as a consequence of residential preferences, local policies, and a diversity of development types, we describe a variety of empirical data collected to support the mechanisms that we encoded in computational agent-based models. We used multiple methods, including social surveys, remote sensing, and statistical analysis of spatial data, to collect data that could be used to validate the structure of our models, calibrate their specific parameters, and evaluate their output. The data were used to investigate this system in the context of several themes from complexity science, including have (a) macro-level patterns; (b) autonomous decision making entities (i.e., agents); (c) heterogeneity among those entities; (d) social and spatial interactions that operate across multiple scales and (e) nonlinear feedback mechanisms. The results point to the importance of collecting data on agents and their interactions when producing agent-based models, the general validity of our conceptual models, and some changes that we needed to make to these models following data analysis. The calibrated models have been and are being used to evaluate landscape dynamics and the effects of various policy interventions on urban land-cover patterns. 相似文献
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Fishing, selection, and phenotypic evolution 总被引:10,自引:9,他引:10
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Suction dredging for cockles removes large cockles from tidal flats and may also cause mortality of non-target fauna and make the habitat less suitable for some species. This study examines whether suction dredging for cockles on tidal flats of the Dutch Wadden Sea had affected densities of non-target fauna, directly after fishing and one year later. Densities of non-target fauna in two randomly chosen undredged locations were compared to densities at the surrounding heavily commercially dredged area. A significant negative effect of cockle dredging on densities of 0-group Macoma balthica was observed and this effect persisted one year after dredging. The dredged area appeared to be less suitable for settlement of mussels Mytilus edulis. No significant effects of dredging on the mudsnail Hydrobia ulvae and on 0 and 1-group C. edule were found. For the mobile young Macoma balthica it seems unlikely that the effect found after one year was still due to the mortality caused by dredging and this suggests that the habitat was less suitable as a consequence of dredging. Thus, even in the highly dynamic ecosystem of the Wadden Sea, effects of bottom disturbance by cockle dredging may persist after one year. 相似文献
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A system of numerical tools to predict the non-local long-term impact of large-scale constructions on the environment is described. The predictions have to be results of successive examination of free water oscillations, turbulent boundary layers on the sea bottom, and turbulent pulsation effects on sediment transport. Numerical results related to free water oscillations in diverse gulfs are shown, and non-local effects of the dam construction are found for an example of the Baltic Sea. Feasibility of suggested tools for turbulent flow is manifested. 相似文献
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