对近年来地震危险区预测效果的评估

采用R值评分方法，对中国地震局地球物理研究所2001—2004年度划定的全国地震危险区进行了评估，2001—2004年度的R值分别为0．265、0．182、0．293、0．404。近两年的R值相对高些，为了排除随机成分，做了相应的随机预报试验检验，并对地震落入危险区的随机概率作了估计。结果表明，4个年度的R值明显高于随机预报，除2002年度外，地震随机落入危险区的概率很低，不到2％。这说明中国地震局地球物理研究所实际地震危险区划分取得了一定的效果，且逐年提高。     

建筑结构抗震能力评估技术的研究及应用

简要介绍影响建筑结构抗震能力的主要因素，重点评述目前建筑结构抗震能力评估的主要技术方法并指出其存在的问题，展望今后抗震能力评估技术的应用及发展趋势。     

拉萨城市地下水系统可开采资源评价

本文在青藏铁路区域水文地质调查工作的基础上,以系统理论的基本原理为出发点,利用地下水系统数值模型的运行,来对拉萨城市地下水系统可开采资源进行评价,取得了比较理想的结果.     

Research on the effect estimation of seismic safety evaluation

IntroductionItisdefinitelystipulatedintheLawofthePeople'sRepublicofChinaonProtectingagainstandMitigatingEarthquakeDisastersthattheseismicsafetyevaluationmustbemadeformajorprojects(includinglifelineprojects)and,accordingtotheresultsobtained,theseismicresistancerequirementsshouldbedetermined.Thenecessityofseismicsafetyevaluationhasbeenrecog-nizedgradually,butthetopicontheeffectofsafetyevaluationhasnotbeenreferredmuch.Gener-allyspeaking,althoughmostpeopleapprovethesocialeffectofsafetyevaluatio…     

Seismic performance evaluation of steel arch bridges against major earthquakes. Part 1: dynamic analysis approach

In this study the inelastic behavior of steel arch bridges subjected to strong ground motions from major earthquakes is investigated by dynamic analyses of a typical steel arch bridge using a three‐dimensional (3D) analytical model, since checking seismic performance against severe earthquakes is not usually performed when designing such kinds of bridge. The bridge considered is an upper‐deck steel arch bridge having a reinforced concrete (RC) deck, steel I‐section girders and steel arch ribs. The input ground motions are accelerograms which are modified ground motions based on the records from the 1995 Hyogoken‐Nanbu earthquake. Both the longitudinal and transverse dynamic characteristics of the bridge are studied by investigation of time‐history responses of the main parameters. It is found that seismic responses are small when subjected to the longitudinal excitation, but significantly large under the transverse ground motion due to plasticization formed in some segments such as arch rib ends and side pier bases where axial force levels are very high. Finally, a seismic performance evaluation method based on the response strain index is proposed for such steel bridge structures. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

大别山南部宿松磷矿含磷地层的时代归属与变形特征及其构造评价

根据对大别山南部宿松磷矿含磷地层的区域分布、地层序列、时代归属、构造变形的系统研究,提出磷矿层属震旦系的新认识。含磷岩系经受了两次强烈的变形改造,原始层理经过了强烈改造,宿松磷矿构成总体包络面呈北西西走向、向南倾斜的褶皱化单斜。矿层的多层化、尖灭复合和加厚现象等主要受构造的控制,而非完全受古地形的控制。用褶皱的观点对原先勘探剖面中的磷矿体进行了重新圈连,籍以指导磷矿的调查、评价和开采。最后对磷矿分布的古地理特征进行了讨论,并从构造的观点对磷矿进行了评价。     

砂土液化判别方法可靠性评价

在进行液化评价简化法与规范液化判别方法对比基础上，利用液化概率的对数回归方程，讨论了规范液化判别方法的可靠性。研究结果表明，我国规范液化判别方法其液化概率变动较大，对于烈度 Ⅶ 度，规范法的液化概率在0.17～0.42间，小于简化法概率0.36～0.43，偏保守。对于烈度 Ⅷ 度和 Ⅸ 度近地表场地，规范法的液化概率高达0.65～0.70，远远高于简化法的液化概率，安全裕度不够。对于含粘粒土质液化评价，规范方法的液化概率总体上都较简化法高，特别是烈度Ⅷ度高粘粒含量其液化概率为0.9。     

区域水资源与社会经济协调程度评价研究

基于陈守煜多级多目标模糊模式识别模型，提出了区域水资源与社会经济协调程度评价模型。该模型利用级别特征值解决了多层多级多目标系统区域水资源与社会经济协调程度的评价，给出了多个目标隶属函数的计算公式。经分析比较，方法可行，结果合理。     

许昌麦岭水源地可开采量的水均衡法计算

根据许昌麦岭镇多年地下水动态观测资料,利用水均衡法原理,对水源地边界地质条件、补给与排泄的关系进行研究,对地下水允许开采量进行综合评价,提出水源地水量开采的建议。     

Damage Evaluation of Agro-meteorological Hazards in the Maize-Growing Region of Songliao Plain,China: Case Study of Lishu County of Jilin Province

Agro-meteorological hazards such as drought, waterlogging and cool summer occur with very high frequency and affect maize production and social-economic development in the maize-growing region of Songliao Plain, China. Moreover, both the frequency of these hazards and loss from them are considered to be increasing with global warming. The purpose of this paper is to quantitatively analyze the relationships between the fluctuation of maize yield and drought, waterlogging and cool summer, and to evaluate the consequences of these hazards in the maize-growing area of Songliao Plain, taking Lishu county as a case study area based on GIS (Geographic Information System). Crop yield-climate analysis and regression analysis were employed to analyze and quantify relationships between the fluctuation of maize yield and drought, waterlogging and cool summer, and to evaluate the consequences of these hazards. The parameters and model of damage evaluation were presented using weighted comprehensive analysis, and the degree of damage of drought, waterlogging and cool summer to maize production was comprehensively evaluated and regionalized. It is shown that from 1949 to 1990, the negative value years of the fluctuation of maize yield due to meteorological hazards accounted for 55% of seasons, of which 14% was caused by drought, 30% by waterlogging, 4% by cool summer and drought, 9% by cool summer and waterlogging, 13% by drought and waterlogging, 30% by drought, waterlogging and cool summer. Studies on the instability and spatial variation of the fluctuations in maize yield in Lishu county showed that the middle plains are stable areas to climatic influence, while southeastern hills and low mountains, the low lands of the plains along the East Liao River and the western plain are unstable areas in terms of areas in maize yield. The synthetic index of the degree of damage to maize of drought, waterlogging and cool summer showed a strong positive correlation with the ratio of the amount damaged to the normal yield of maize. This suggests that this index can be used to evaluate such damage. The degree of damage of drought, waterlogging and cool summer to maize in Lishu county shows the regional characteristics, which increase gradually from the center to the west and east, this being almost identical with the spatial distribution of the fluctuation of maize yield due to these hazards. This study can be expected to provide the basis for developing strategies to mitigate agro-meteorological hazards and reducing the losses from them, and adjust the medium and long-term distribution of agricultural activities so as to adapt to environmental changes.