重庆风暴尺度集合预报系统降水预报性能分析

基于在重庆市气象局业务运行的对流可分辨尺度（3 km）集合预报系统,在已有初值扰动、模式物理过程扰动和侧边界扰动的基础上,对不同集合成员采用不同地形插值方案和地形平滑方案实现对模式静态地形高度的扰动,体现数值模式中地形转换过程的不确定性,开展集合预报批量平行试验。结果表明：（1）实现对模式静态地形高度的扰动后,各集合成员地形高度的离散度与实际地形的起伏程度对应关系较好,两者空间分布特征非常相似,地形较平坦的平原地区离散度较小,而地形较复杂的高原地区或山区离散度较大;（2）加入模式地形扰动方案后,集合扰动能量总体上有所增大,且低层比中、高层更明显,能量增幅在较短预报时效（12 h）内最显著,随着预报时效延长呈逐渐减小趋势,且能量增幅大值中心主要出现在地形较复杂、集合成员地形高度离散度较大地区;（3）模式地形扰动方案一定程度上能提高降水概率预报技巧及改进集合平均降水预报,在对高空要素和2 m温度、10 m风场等近地面要素的集合平均均方根误差和集合离散度无负面影响的前提下,能一定程度上优化集合分布。

     

Influence of Current Width Variation on the Annual Mean Transport of the East Sakhalin Current: A Simple Model

Recent observations suggest that the annual mean southward transport of the East Sakhalin Current (ESC) is significantly larger than the annual mean Sverdrup transport. Motivated by this observational result, transport of a western boundary current has been investigated using a simple numerical model with a western slope. This transport is defined as the instantaneous barotropic transport integrated from the western boundary to the offshore point where the barotropic velocity vanishes. The model, forced by seasonally varying wind stress, exhibits an annual mean of the western boundary current transport that is larger than that of the Sverdrup transport, as observed. The southward transport from October to March in the model nearly equals the instantaneous Sverdrup transport, while the southward transport from April to September decreases slowly. Although the Sverdrup transport in July vanishes, the southward transport in summer nearly maintains the annual mean Sverdrup transport, because the barotropic Rossby wave cannot intrude on the western slope. This summer transport causes the larger annual mean. Although there are some uncertainties in the estimation of the Sverdrup transport in the Sea of Okhotsk, the seasonal variation of the southward transport in the model is qualitatively similar to the observations.     

Northward transport of pacific summer water along the Northwind Ridge in the Western Arctic Ocean

The recent sea-ice reduction in the Arctic Ocean is not spatially uniform, but is disproportionally large around the Northwind Ridge and Chukchi Plateau compared to elsewhere in the Canada Basin. In the Northwind Ridge region, Pacific Summer Water (PSW) delivered from the Bering Sea occupies the subsurface layer. The spatial distribution of warm PSW shows a quite similar pattern to the recent ice retreat, suggesting the influence of PSW on the sea-ice reduction. To understand the regionality of the recent ice retreat, we examine the dynamics and timing of the delivery of the PSW into this region. Here, we adopt a two-layer linearized potential vorticity equation to investigate the behavior of Rossby waves in the presence of a topographic discontinuity in the high latitude ocean. The analytical results show a quite different structure from those of mid-latitude basins due to the small value of β. Incident barotropic waves excited by the sea-ice motion with large annual variation can be scattered into both barotropic and baroclinic modes at the discontinuity. Since the scattered baroclinic Rossby wave with annual frequency cannot propagate freely, a strong baroclinic current near the topographic discontinuity is established. The seasonal variation of current near the topographic discontinuity would cause a kind of selective switching system for shelf water transport into the basin. In our simple analytical model, the enhanced northward transport of summer water and reduced northward transport of winter water are well demonstrated. The present study indicates that these basic dynamics imply that a strengthening of the surface forcing during winter in the Canada Basin could cause sea-ice reduction in the Western Arctic through the changes of underlying Pacific Summer Water.     

Geotechnical characterization of slump scars,eroded slopes,and correlated deposits on continental margins: Gulf of Lions,Western Mediterranean sea

Abstract

Vertical variations of geotechnical properties in the uppermost sediment layers characterize the main sedimentary processes acting on the construction and destruction of progressive‐type continental slopes. In the Gulf of Lions, the original thicknesses and distribution of the uppermost sedimentary layers of the continental slope and rise, which consist of Holocene muds overlying Pleistocene muds, have been greatly modified by erosion and several kinds of slope failure processes. Each process is typified through sets of geotechnical properties measured in the eroded or slumped sections and in the associated sediment accumulations.

In slump scars, the water‐rich Holocene muds lie on fine, overconsolidated, Pleistocene muds with high plasticity and low shear strength. In bottom current‐eroded slopes, where modern sedimentation is extremely reduced, the Pleistocene muds frequently outcrop and may sometimes be overlain by a very thin layer of Holocene muds. The Pleistocene muds of eroded slopes are overconsolidated and more silty and less plastic than the Pleistocene muds from slopes affected by slope failure, their shear strength being 10 times greater.

Deposits at the toe of slumps are very often formed by several superposed three‐layer units (triplets of interstratified Holocene, transitional, and Pleistocene layers) issued from retrogressive slumping occurring in the slump scars above their head area. The main body of each layer is then relatively undisturbed, showing the usual burial geotechnical gradients due to overburden pressure (i.e., decrease of water content and increase of unit weight and shear strength). At the toe of bottom current‐eroded slopes, a thick and homogeneous layer of Holocene muds overlies the Pleistocene muds; this Holocene layer has unappreciable burial depth gradient of its geotechnical parameters because of a high rate of modem and continuous deposition.     

卫星重力梯度测量在海洋科学中的应用分析

简述了卫星重力梯度测量技术的基本原理和GOCE数据特点;基于三个不同的重力场模型,采用不同阶次,联合卫星测高平均海面高模型分别推算出全球海面地形,并对结果作了比较分析;探讨了卫星重力梯度测量技术在海洋科学各相关领域的具体应用前景,指出卫星重力梯度测量技术的发展将为海洋科学发展带来巨大的变化。     

The effect of local irregular topography on seismic ground motion

Ｔｈｅｅｆｆｅｃｔｏｆｌｏｃａｌｉｒｒｅｇｕｌａｒｔｏｐｏｇｒａｐｈｙｏｎｓｅｉｓｍｉｃ　ｇｒｏｕｎｄ　ｍｏｔｉｏｎＪＩＧ－ｈｏＬＩＵ（刘晶波）（ＤｅｐａｒｔｍｅｎｔｏｆＣｉｖｉｌＥｎｇｉｎｅｅｒｉｎｇ，ＴｓｉｎｇｈｕａＵｎｉｖｅｒｓｉｔｙＢｅｉｊｉ...     

金塘岛北部海域地形变化对水动力环境的影响

浙江舟山金塘岛北部围填海工程使其周边海域的地形产生了较大的变化。本文利用数值模拟方法研究了该围填海工程引起的地形变化对金塘岛周边海域的潮流、余流以及泥沙冲淤的影响。研究结果表明：地形变化对沥港水道影响较大,水道北部入口位置向北移,入口处流速明显增大,涨急流速由0.50 m/s增强为0.92 m/s,增强了84%,落急流速由0.30 m/s增强为0.53 m/s,增强了77%,余流流速由0.05 m/s增强为0.12 m/s,增强了140%;沥港水道中部转角处落急流速减弱;围填海工程新生成的岬角处流速变化也较大,2个岬角凹处形成旋转流场,涨急流速由0.46 m/s减弱至0.14 m/s,减弱了70%,落急流速由0.61 m/s减弱至0.17 m/s,减弱了72%,余流流速由0.55 m/s减弱至0.04 m/s,减弱了93%。金塘岛北部海域泥沙淤积分布与余流变化大小分布一致,表明两者密切相关且均受地形变化影响显著。     

2013年6月30日皖南山区对流性暴雨成因及漏报原因分析

利用常规观测资料、地面加密观测资料、FY-4A卫星云图资料、多普勒天气雷达资料和ERA5再分析资料,对2021年6月14日傍晚到夜间豫南一次对流性暴雨过程进行了分析。结果表明：此次过程发生时,850 hPa以上为西南到偏西气流,边界层内冷空气侵入豫南,风场形成了气旋性切变和辐合,过程中水汽条件和热力条件较好,动力强迫主要位于边界层。本次降水可分为两个阶段：14日18∶00—15日00∶00时为对流的触发与演变阶段,冷空气南下形成的地面中尺度辐合线南压到豫南触发了准线状对流,之后辐合线断裂,位于驻马店的东段辐合线进一步南压,对流随之南压减弱,而南阳盆地内风场形成了中尺度气旋性旋转和辐合,对流在此维持;15日00∶00—06∶00为对流的再次增强与维持阶段,随着近地面冷空气再次增强,南阳中部到驻马店西部一带的对流增强并稳定少动。南阳站附近形成了中尺度气旋式辐合中心并长时间维持,利于此处对流不断生成并东移,驻马店西部山地的喇叭口地形对风场的辐合抬升作用也促进了对流的维持。

     

弱地形上内潮生成问题——Ⅱ.粗糙地形情况下水深对内潮能通量的影响

前人在讨论水深对内潮能通量影响的时候得出结论:有限深海洋中海面对内潮的反射使得正压潮向内潮的能量转化相比较无限深海的情况显著降低,对于选定的地形,在无限深海假定下得到的能通量是该地形上内潮能通量的上限。鉴于前人所研究的基本上都是平滑的地形,而实际的海洋地形总是比较粗糙的,本文探讨了粗糙地形上内潮能通量随水深的变化。选取了弦函数地形、随机白噪声地形、弦函数地形叠加在高斯地形之上、随机白噪声地形叠加在高斯地形之上和随机白噪声地形与弦函数地形同时叠加在高斯地形之上5种情况进行了研究,发现对于这5种情况,都存在海洋有限深时的能通量大于无限深假定时的能通量,这说明前人得出的"有限深海洋中海面对内潮的反射使得正压潮向内潮的能量转化相比较无限深海的情况显著降低"的结论对于粗糙地形并不适用。     

Numerical studies of upwelling in coastalareas of the East China Sea——Ⅰ The tide-induced upwelling

ＮｕｍｅｒｉｃａｌｓｔｕｄｉｅｓｏｆｕｐｗｅｌｌｉｎｇｉｎｃｏａｓｔａｌａｒｅａｓｏｆｔｈｅＥａｓｔＣｈｉｎａＳｅａ－ⅠＴｈｅｔｉｄｅ－ｉｎｄｕｃｅｄｕｐｗｅｌｌｉｎｇＬｕｏＹｉｙｏｎｇ,ＹｕＧｕａｎｇｙａｏ,ＨｕａｎｇＺｕｋｅ（ＲｅｃｅｉｖｅｄＯｃ...