基于灰色马尔科夫链预测系统的设计与实现

通过对灰色GM[1,1]模型的算法改进,将改进后的灰色模型与马尔科夫链结合,既可以发挥灰色系统预测精确的特点,又可以利用马尔科夫链对准确预测波动性数据的优势。在灰色马尔科夫链模型的算法基础上,采用Visual Studio 2005开发环境,进行灰色马尔科夫链预测系统的设计。最后利用南方某地区十年来土地利用数据进行系统验证,结果表明,灰色马尔科夫链模型能很大地提高预测的精度和效果,符合实际要求。     

Risk Management for Petroleum Reservoir Production: A Simulation-Based Study of Prediction

We consider numerical solutions of the Darcy and Buckley–Leverett equations for flow in porous media. These solutions depend on a realization of a random field that describes the reservoir permeability. The main content of this paper is to formulate and analyze a probability model for the numerical coarse grid solution error. We explore the extent to which the coarse grid oil production rate is sufficient to predict future oil production rates. We find that very early oil production data is sufficient to reduce the prediction error in oil production by about 30%, relative to the prior probability prediction.     

Effect of non-linear soil deformation on the interaction among energy piles

This study investigates the effect of non-linear soil deformation on the displacement interaction among energy piles. The work is based on interaction factor analyses of full-scale pile group tests, whose results are compared with experimental evidence. The results presented highlight the tendency of interaction factor analyses that ignore non-linear soil deformation to overestimate the interaction and the displacement of energy pile groups. This outcome, in accordance with previous studies for conventional pile groups subjected to mechanical loads, may be considered in the analysis and design of energy pile groups subjected to thermal (and mechanical) loads through the interaction factor method.     

Prediction of railway ground vibrations: Accuracy of a coupled lumped mass model for representing the track/soil interaction

Recent advances in railway-induced ground vibrations showed that the track/soil interaction plays an important role in the low frequency range. This paper contributes to the numerical analysis of train/track/foundation dynamics by presenting the accuracy of a coupled lumped mass (CLM) model devoted to the railway foundations and to the track/soil coupling. Following a summary of the background and the advantages of the CLM model, the coupling strategy is quantified through two application cases. Firstly, the dynamic track deflection is calculated for different railway lines considering various degrees of complexities of foundations. Then, the foundation responses are compared depending on whether detailed coupling is introduced or not. The benefit of the proposed model is emphasized by presenting free-field ground vibration responses generated by a tram and a high-speed train, obtained by a revisited two-step prediction model developed by the authors.     

西部测图移动应急安全自救保障系统研究

移动应急安全自救保障系统是整个"西部测图工程"安全保障体系建设中的最重要组成部分。本文从"西部测图"移动应急安全自救保障建设实际需求出发,结合当前PDA硬件资源的特点,在分析测区作业特点的基础上探讨了系统建设的整体架构以及系统建设的需求特征,并详细阐述了系统的数据组织结构模型,最后给出了系统的相关功能实现和应用。     

简单热带海气耦合模型中不同扰动形式的作用

在局地热平衡情况下,将物理量先用韦伯函数展开,然后去掉相应分量的滤波方 法,讨论了简单热带海气耦合模型中不同形式扰动的作用和贡献,结果表明,在热带海气耦合 系统中,大气准定常 Ｒｏｓｓｂｙ波和海洋 Ｒｏｓｓｂｙ波对于耦合系统贡献较大,它们决定着耦合系统 与耦合扰动的性质,而大气准定常Ｋｅｌｖｉｎ波和海洋Ｋｅｌｖｉｎ波对于耦合系统贡献相对较小．     

Scaling of response spectrum and duration for aftershocks

Aftershocks have the potential to cause collapse of a structure that has been already damaged by the preceding main shock. Seismic safety of a structure should therefore be ascertained through a damage analysis using the anticipated main shock and few larger-aftershock motions. Simulation of aftershock motions needs characterization of the seismic hazard due to aftershocks, and therefore it will be useful to develop a conditional scaling model that can predict the response spectrum of an anticipated aftershock motion consistent with the design spectrum of the main shock motion anticipated at the same station. In this study an attempt is made to develop a conditional scaling model for the pseudo spectral velocity spectrum via linear regression analysis on the aftershock and main shock recordings for the 1999 Chi–Chi earthquake. It is shown that it may be possible to obtain a simpler and approximate version of the conditional model from an unconditional model. Damage-causing potential of a ground motion also depends on its strong motion duration (SMD) and therefore a conditional scaling model is developed for SMD of the aftershock motion in several narrow frequency-bands. The model is developed for the larger-aftershock motions and it is shown that a reasonable replacement of such a model may be obtainable directly from an unconditional model. Finally, a simple weighted averaging scheme is proposed to obtain the composite SMD from the SMDs for different frequency bands by using the pseudo spectral acceleration spectrum of the motion.     

Crustal Growth by Magmatic Accretion Constrained by Metamorphic P-T Paths and Thermal Models of the Kohistan Arc, NW Himalayas

Magmatic accretion is potentially an important mechanism inthe growth of the continental crust and the formation of granulites.In this study, the thermal evolution of a magmatic arc in responseto magmatic accretion is modeled using numerical solutions ofthe one-dimensional heat conduction equation. The initial andboundary conditions used in the model are constrained by geologicalobservations made in the Kohistan area, NW Himalayas. Takingconsideration of the preferred intrusion locations for basalticmagmas, we consider two plausible modes of magmatic accretion:the first involves the repeated intrusion of basalt at mid-crustaldepths (‘intraplate model’), and the second evaluatesthe simultaneous intrusion of basalt and picrite at mid-crustaldepths and the base of the crust respectively (‘double-platemodel’). The results of the double-plate model accountfor both the inferred metamorphic P–T paths of the Kohistanmafic granulites and the continental geotherm determined frompeak P–T conditions observed for granulite terranes. Thedouble-plate model may be applicable as a key growth processfor the production of thick mafic lower crust in magmatic arcs. KEY WORDS: thermal model; magmatic underplating; P–T path; granulite; lower crust     

基于地质记录用时域组合模型预测气候变化趋势的初步研究

用时域分析组合模型建立了１００万年来６０°Ｎ６月份太阳辐射量时间序列、宝鸡黄土粒度时间序列、渭南夏季风指数时间序列的动态模型．研究结果表明,时域分析组合模型较好地提取了时间序列的信息,得到的几个显著周期Ｔ＝１３３,１００,８９,４１,２３,１９ｋａ,与地球轨道三要素的变化周期接近．用组合模型拟合实测数据,精度是高的;用其预测未来气候替代性指标时间序列的变化情况,发现未来气候有向干冷方向发展的趋势．时域分析组合模型为研究气候变化趋势提供了一种定量分析、预测的方法．     

基于B/S的土地利用总体规划信息系统研究

探讨建立基于B/S(浏览器/服务器)模式的土地利用总体规划信息系统。对系统的功能和系统实现的几个关键技术进行了详细说明,包括数据库连接技术、MSchart控件的使用、SQL语句查询的算法设计。此系统是一种基于Internet技术的信息系统[3],用户可以通过浏览器来浏览和查询网络上的土地信息。