Uncertainty,entropy, scaling and hydrological stochastics. 1. Marginal distributional properties of hydrological processes and state scaling / Incertitude,entropie, effet d'échelle et propriétés stochastiques hydrologiques. 1. Propriétés distributionnelles marginales des processus hydrologiques et échelle d'état

Abstract

The well-established physical and mathematical principle of maximum entropy (ME), is used to explain the distributional and autocorrelation properties of hydrological processes, including the scaling behaviour both in state and in time. In this context, maximum entropy is interpreted as maximum uncertainty. The conditions used for the maximization of entropy are as simple as possible, i.e. that hydrological processes are non-negative with specified coefficients of variation (CV) and lag one autocorrelation. In this first part of the study, the marginal distributional properties of hydrological variables and the state scaling behaviour are investigated. Application of the ME principle under these very simple conditions results in the truncated normal distribution for small values of CV and in a nonexponential type (Pareto) distribution for high values of CV. In addition, the normal and the exponential distributions appear as limiting cases of these two distributions. Testing of these theoretical results with numerous hydrological data sets on several scales validates the applicability of the ME principle, thus emphasizing the dominance of uncertainty in hydrological processes. Both theoretical and empirical results show that the state scaling is only an approximation for the high return periods, which is merely valid when processes have high variation on small time scales. In other cases the normal distributional behaviour, which does not have state scaling properties, is a more appropriate approximation. Interestingly however, as discussed in the second part of the study, the normal distribution combined with positive autocorrelation of a process, results in time scaling behaviour due to the ME principle.     

上海及其邻区潜在地质灾害的构造背景与成因机理

本文基于上海及其邻区活动断裂构造及有关地区潜在地质灾害特点的研究,论证了上海及其邻区潜在地质灾害的三种基本类型及其构造背景与成因机理;指出:上海及其邻区楔形断裂系统的存在与活动是诱发有关地区潜在地质灾害的主导因素。文中明确指出了上海及其邻区楔形断裂系统的研究在相关地区进行潜在地质灾害评价与预测方面的应用前景与发展方向。     

A temporal model for landslide risk based on historical precipitation

Of the recognized nonsteady-state factors that influence slope stability, probably most critical in many field situations is the character of precipitation and infiltration activity. A groundwater response model used in conjunction with precipitation records can provide a historical catalog of estimated maximum groundwater levels in a particular study area. An extreme-value statistical analysis of this catalog is linked with geotechnical slope stability analyses to provide a landslide hazard model for estimating the probability of slope failure within a given time. This modeling approach can provide meaningful input to risk assessments for landslide mitigation programs and to decision analyses and cost-benefit studies important for land-use planning and resource management.This paper was presented at Emerging Concepts, MGUS 87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 13–15 April 1987.     

Preliminary results of seismic hazard assessment in the Sannio-Matese area of Southern Italy

The seismic hazard in the Sannio-Matese area has been worked out by a modification of the McGuire (1976) computing programme, taking into account the influence of nine potential seismic source zones.The method uses truncated-quadratic intensity-frequency distribution and azimuth-dependent intensity attenuation derived from isoseismal maps for each of the seismogenetic sources. A new modification has been introduced to take into account different decay of the intensity in the near (to VIII degree) and far (from VIII degree) field.Different assumptions about maximum possible intensities and truncation of intensity-frequency laws are used to evaluate the effects of the uncertainties on the computed hazard at high intensities. Intensities associated with different level of annual probability are computed for five test sites in the considered area. Maps displaying the expected intensity for a mean return period of 500 years (pa 0.002) are presented and compared with observed intensities.Presented at the XXIst General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, Symposium on Methods of Seismic Hazard Assessment in Europe, Sofia, 23–27 August 1988.     

Statistical estimation of a shock center: Slate Islands astrobleme

Statistical models are proposed for the distribution of directions in three dimensions that are thought to point toward a single source. These models are based on the Fisher distribution. The method of maximum likelihood is used to obtain an estimate of position of the source and to provide corre-sponding confidence regions. When applied to shatter cone data from the Slate Islands, northern Lake Superior, the method yields estimates comparable with those obtained by Stesky and Halls (1982), as well as statistically valid confidence regions.     

矿山淹井中水位、水量的快速估算和预报

本文用数理统计方法,快速估算和预报矿山淹井中水住、最高水位,矿井水涌量、涌入矿区的总水量和需要排出水量。用简单易行的反推法确定淹井的涌水量,并推导出计算式,以供使用。该方法在某矿淹井中使用,效果良好。     

多元统计在大洋玄武岩同位素端元识别中的应用

应用因子分析的方差最大旋转和非线性映射方法对海洋玄武岩Sr、Nd、Pb同位素数据在多维空间中的数据结构进行了分析。研究表明这些数据在多维空间中呈五角形结构,并对应5个地幔端元:大西洋中脊玄武岩(DMM),圣埃伦那(HIMU),鲸岛(EMI),萨摩亚岛(EMII)和DS(EMIII).其中DS(EMIII)是本文新识别出来的一个地幔端元,它可能是重新进入地幔的具有较高古老放射成因Pb的下地壳物质。     

南极拉斯曼丘陵地区大地测量控制网

南极拉斯曼丘陵地区大地测量控制网的建立与施测前后共历经４年方始完成，总控制面积约１７７．６平方公里。本文主要讨论了该网分区布设情况及总体平差的原理与方法，并对成果进行了统计分析。经过整体平差的结果可以满足１：１００００测图的需要。该网也是我国东南极中山站地区的基础大地控制网