Prediction analysis of long-term memory effect for calamity gray series

Are human able to foresee the future? For thou-sands of years close attention has been paid to this issue. At the present day, in order to survive from competition and to predominate over the nature, hu-man抯 desire of forecasting things has become more and more intense. Compared to conquering space, more people yearn for being able to control the time. From ancient to the present, mankind always dream of contacting the past, governing the present and tran-scending the future. Recent years in…     

黔西断陷区煤中潜在毒害微量元素赋存状态分析

通过对贵州西南部黔西断陷区晚二叠世和晚三叠世36个煤层煤样的灰分、硫分、灰成分及21种潜在毒害微量元素进行的分析测试及其相关性分析和聚类分析，得出Cr，U与煤中灰分成明显正相关；Ba，Be，Co，Cr，Cu，Mo，Se，Sn，Th，Tl，U，V等与粘土矿物正相关；碳酸盐矿物中Mn，Cd，Ni含量较高；As，Pb，Sb，zn等主要分布于硫化物矿物中；区内煤中不同来源、不同地质历史时期形成的硫化物中潜在毒害微量元素含量相差甚大；亲有机质的潜在毒害微量元素表现不显著。     

Active sensing using impedance‐based ARX models and extreme value statistics for damage detection

In this paper, the applicability of an auto‐regressive model with exogenous inputs (ARX) in the frequency domain to structural health monitoring (SHM) is established. Damage sensitive features that explicitly consider non‐linear system input/output relationships are extracted from the ARX model. Furthermore, because of the non‐Gaussian nature of the extracted features, Extreme Value Statistics (EVS) is employed to develop a robust damage classifier. EVS provides superior performance to standard statistical methods because the data of interest are in the tails (extremes) of the damage sensitive feature distribution. The suitability of the ARX model, combined with EVS, to non‐linear damage detection is demonstrated using vibration data obtained from a laboratory experiment of a three‐story building model. It is found that the vibration‐based method, while able to discern when damage is present in the structure, is unable to localize the damage to a particular joint. An impedance‐based active sensing method using piezoelectric (PZT) material as both an actuator and a sensor is then investigated as an alternative solution to the problem of damage localization. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Empirical Maximum Likelihood Kriging: The General Case

Although linear kriging is a distribution-free spatial interpolator, its efficiency is maximal only when the experimental data follow a Gaussian distribution. Transformation of the data to normality has thus always been appealing. The idea is to transform the experimental data to normal scores, krige values in the “Gaussian domain” and then back-transform the estimates and uncertainty measures to the “original domain.” An additional advantage of the Gaussian transform is that spatial variability is easier to model from the normal scores because the transformation reduces effects of extreme values. There are, however, difficulties with this methodology, particularly, choosing the transformation to be used and back-transforming the estimates in such a way as to ensure that the estimation is conditionally unbiased. The problem has been solved for cases in which the experimental data follow some particular type of distribution. In general, however, it is not possible to verify distributional assumptions on the basis of experimental histograms calculated from relatively few data and where the uncertainty is such that several distributional models could fit equally well. For the general case, we propose an empirical maximum likelihood method in which transformation to normality is via the empirical probability distribution function. Although the Gaussian domain simple kriging estimate is identical to the maximum likelihood estimate, we propose use of the latter, in the form of a likelihood profile, to solve the problem of conditional unbiasedness in the back-transformed estimates. Conditional unbiasedness is achieved by adopting a Bayesian procedure in which the likelihood profile is the posterior distribution of the unknown value to be estimated and the mean of the posterior distribution is the conditionally unbiased estimate. The likelihood profile also provides several ways of assessing the uncertainty of the estimation. Point estimates, interval estimates, and uncertainty measures can be calculated from the posterior distribution.     

基于数理统计分析的数字摄影资料空三布点方案选择

采用DMC(DigitalMappingCamera)数字航摄相机的数字摄影资料取代传统的模拟航片进行空三加密,基于数理统计分析原理,提出用绘制误差折(曲)线图和误差频率曲线图来综合评价DMC空三加密成果,并将该评价方法用于比较DMC不同布点方案的优劣。试验证明,该可视化评价方法表达直观,降低了平差结果分析的复杂度,有助于空三加密成果的定性、定量评价。     

基于地形随机场模型的遥感图像几何纠正

从地形平稳随机场模型出发,应用空间统计学中的Kriging插值算法,提出在多项式纠正基础上进行误差改正的图像精纠正方法,并进行相应的实验验证。多项式纠正和基于共线方程的几何成像模型纠正是最常用的两类纠正方法,但多项式纠正无法克服由于地形起伏所引起的投影差。提出的方法和流程,不仅能克服多项式模型中的弊端,而且不额外增加控制点选择和计算的负担,可以作为多项式纠正流程中的求精。     

广东省各地市耕地面积统计偏差分析

深入分析耕地面积详查数据与统计数据的来源和计量单位口径以数据覆盖范围,建立了详查口径耕地面积与统计口径耕地面积的关系方程。根据1996年详查耕地面积计算了广东省21个地市实际的统计口径耕地面积,并与各地上报的1996年统计耕地面积比较。结果表明,人为夸大或虚报耕地面积情况主要出现的珠江三角洲经济区内,大多数山区地市这一迹象并不明显。     

Turbulent Statistics of Neutrally Stratified Flow Within and Above a Sparse Forest from Large-Eddy Simulation and Field Observations

Turbulent statistics of neutrally stratified shear-driven flow within and above a sparse forest canopy are presented from a large-eddy simulation (LES) and compared with those from observations within and above a deciduous forest with similar height and foliage density. First- and second-order moments from the LES agree with observations quite well. Third-order moments from the LES have the same sign and similar vertical patterns as those from the observations, but the LES yields smaller magnitudes of such higher-order moments. Turbulent spectra and cospectra from the LES agree well with observations above the forest. However, at the highest frequencies, the LES spectra have steeper slopes than observations. Quadrant and conditional analyses of the LES resolved-scale flow fields also agree with observations. For example, both LES and observation find that sweeps are more important than ejections for the transport of momentum within the forest, while inward and outward interaction contributions are both small, except near the forest floor. The intermittency of the transport of momentum and scalar increases with depth into the forest. Finally, ramp structures in the time series of a passive scalar at multiple levels within and above the forest show similar features to those measured from field towers. Two-dimensional (height-time cross-section) contours of the passive scalar and wind vectors show sweeps and ejections, and the characteristics of the static pressure perturbation near the ground resemble those deduced from field tower-based measurements. In spite of the limited grid resolution (2 m × 2 m × 2 m) and domain size (192 m × 192 m × 60 m) used in this LES, we demonstrate that the LES is capable of resolving the most important characteristics of the turbulent flow within and above a forest canopy.     

距平模式月际旱涝异常的诊断及预测试验

用地气耦合非定常距平模式对２４个夏季旱涝月个例进行了诊断和预测试验。结果表明,用这种动力与统计外部结合的ＭＯＳ方法进行旱涝预测比较简易可行,并且达到一定的准确率,便于在短期气候预报的业务中推广应用。     

1990—1995年全球灾害地震统计特征

研究了１９９０－１９９５年间全球大地震活动及重大灾害地震的时空强分布特征,着重讨论了灾害地震与地震活动水平,人文地理,经济地理和发震时间等各种因素的密切关系。