Improved performance‐based seismic assessment of buildings by utilizing Bayesian statistics

This paper addresses two important issues of concern to practicing engineers and researchers alike in application of performance‐based seismic assessment (PBSA) methodology on buildings: (i) the number of ground motion records required to exercise PBSA—current practice (FEMA P‐58‐1) requires eleven or more pairs of motions for this purpose, and (ii) the time and effort associated with performing the number of nonlinear response history analyses required to exercise PBSA. We present a method for exercising of PBSA that employs classical linear modal analysis to develop a first estimate (i.e., a priori) of probability distribution of loss, followed by utilizing Bayesian statistics to update this estimate using estimates of loss obtained by utilizing a small number of nonlinear response history analyses of a detailed model of the building (i.e., posterior). The proposed technique is used to assess the distribution of monetary loss of two case studies, a 4‐story reinforced concrete moment‐resisting frame building and a 20‐story steel moment‐resisting frame building, both located in Los Angeles, for a ground motion hazard with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The efficiency of the proposed PBSA method is demonstrated by showing the similarity between the distribution of monetary loss at each story of case study buildings obtained from the traditional/sophisticated PBSA methodology and the proposed PBSA method in this study. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Anthropogenic land-use signals propagate through stream food webs in a California,USA, watershed

Human development of watersheds can change aquatic ecosystems via multiple pathways. For instance, human rural development may add nutrients to ecosystems. We used naturally occurring stable isotopes in stream food webs to investigate how land use affects stream ecosystems across a gradient of land development in the San Lorenzo watershed, California. Road density was used as a proxy for land development. We found that streams in watersheds with higher road densities had elevated concentrations of phosphate and nitrate. Furthermore, algal δ¹⁵N values increased as a function of nitrate concentration, but saturated at approximately 6‰. This saturating pattern was consistent with a two-source mixing model with anthropogenic and watershed sources, fit using Bayesian model fitting. In sites that had >2.6 km roads km⁻², anthropogenic sources of N were estimated to represent >90% of the N pool. This anthropogenic N signal was propagated to stream consumers: rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), signal crayfish (Pacifasticus leniusculus), and benthic invertebrate δ¹⁵N were positively correlated with algal δ¹⁵N. Even relatively low density rural human land use may have substantial impacts on nutrient cycling of stream ecosystems.     

基于地质统计先验信息的储层物性参数同步反演

本文提出的储层物性参数同步反演是一种高分辨率的非线性反演方法,该方法综合利用岩石物理和地质统计先验信息,在贝叶斯理论框架下,首先通过变差结构分析得到合理的变差函数,进而利用快速傅里叶滑动平均模拟算法（Fast Fourier TransformMoving Average,FFT-MA）和逐渐变形算法（Gradual Deformation Method,GDM）得到基于地质统计学的储层物性参数先验信息,然后根据统计岩石物理模型建立弹性参数与储层物性参数之间的关系,构建似然函数,最终利用Metropolis算法实现后验概率密度的抽样,得到物性参数反演结果。并将此方法处理了中国陆上探区的一块实际资料,本方法的反演结果具有较高的分辨率,与测井数据吻合度较高;由于可以直接反演储层物性参数,避免了误差的累积,大大减少了不确定性的传递,且计算效率较高。     

兰州市区地质灾害与暴雨强度

对兰州市区地质灾害的分布、成因、特点进行了分析,着重研究了兰州市区山洪灾害和强度暴雨的时空分布、产生强度暴雨的天气系统以及山洪灾害和暴雨强度之间的关系,确定了临界降雨量指标,提出了防治对策,这对我市开展地质灾害气象预报预警工作是十分必要的。     

Geochemical characterization of karst groundwater in the cradle of humankind world heritage site,South Africa

The karst of the Cradle of Humankind World Heritage Site plays a major role in the assimilation or carrying of acid mine drainage, sewage effluent return flow and agricultural run-off. Infiltration of contaminated water has altered the chemical composition of the natural waters of the karst system. A multivariate statistical method in combination with conventional geochemical and spatial analysis was applied on groundwater and surface water quality samples to determine the spatial extent of hydrochemical impacts from different anthropogenic sources. The application of hierarchical cluster analysis of the major ions (148 samples) recognised three distinct hydrochemical regimes. Cluster 1 is moderately mineralized, especially with regard to chloride, nitrate and sulphate, cluster 2 has a low mineralization with all elements well within the recommended drinking water limits of South Africa and cluster 3 represents highly mineralized samples taken in the vicinity of decanting mineshafts. The cluster solution is confirmed by a simple mixing model, indicating varying contributions of three identified end members (acid mine drainage, treated sewage effluents and pristine dolomitic groundwater) to the groundwater quality in the catchment. The combination of statistical, geochemical and spatial methods in conjunction with end-member mixing analysis provides a reliable method to understand the processes responsible for the groundwater quality variations and to assist in the identification of anthropogenic impacts.     

空间数据插值方法的评价

应用3种不同的方法,对气温数据进行空间数据插值。应用的方法为反距离移动平均法、反距离移动表面法和普通克里格。研究数据采用国际粮农组织(FAO)提供的全球气候数据库中1月份的平均最高气温数据。在获取插值结果之后,用5种统计方法对插值结果进行评价和比较,结果显示运用普通克里格方法获得的插值表现较好。     

高阶统计量在大地电磁测深数据处理中的应用研究

在大地电磁（MT）测深法中,大地电磁响应函数经常出现个别频点分散、误差棒较大、形态异常等现象,在作反演解释时,许多地质特征难以有效提取出来,这些问题严重阻碍了MT的实际应用效能和发展.本文利用高阶统计量方法检验了MT信号的高斯性. 结果表明,MT信号是非高斯的. 根据任何高斯过程,其高阶统计量（高阶累积量,高阶谱）均为零的性质,通过信号的高阶谱恢复功率谱,再由功率谱估算MT响应函数,能有效抑制高斯有色噪声的影响,提高MT资料的处理质量. 从应用效果看,这种方法在抑制高斯有色噪声、提取信号中有用信息方面优于传统功率谱方法.     

基于独立分量分析的多次波自适应相减技术

针对多次波自适应相减这个关键问题,文中首次提出利用独立分量分析技术来实现多次波和一次波的分离（简称ICAAMS）. 现有的多次波自适应相减技术大都是采用输出信号（一次波）能量最小准则,基于二阶统计量的技术. 本文提出的ICAAMS采用了输出信号非高斯性最大准则,并利用高阶统计量来表征非高斯性. 简单的褶积模型和复杂的有限差分模型资料处理结果表明, 本文提出的方法可以有效地分离一次波和多次波.     

关于大地电磁信号非最小相位性的讨论

由于信号的功率谱仅包含振幅信息而不包含相位信息,因此传统功率谱方法仅能处理最小相位信号,难于适用于非最小相位信号．本文对不同地区的实际大地电磁(MT)信号作了分析,结果表明,不同测点MT信号在Z平面上的零点分布并不全部位于单位圆之内,可以判定MT信号一般具有非最小相位的特点,因此有必要改进传统处理方法,发展新的资料处理方式．实际信号分析,理论和数值模型实验证明,信号的高阶统计量包含其相位信息,因此,高阶统计量方法能够有效处理具有非最小相位特征的MT信号．     

Using Kolmogorov-Smirnov Statistics to Compare Geostrophic Velocities Measured by the Jason,TOPEX, and Poseidon Altimeters

The Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test is used to compare probability density functions (PDFs) of geostrophic velocities measured by the TOPEX, Poseidon, and Jason altimeters. Velocity PDFs are computed in 2.5° by 2.5° boxes for regions equatorward of 60° latitude. Although velocities measured by the TOPEX and Jason altimeters can differ, on the basis of the K-S test the velocities are statistically equivalent during the ～200 day period when the satellites followed the same orbit. Full records from TOPEX, Poseidon, and Jason show less agreement, which can be attributed to temporal variability in ocean surface velocities and differing levels of measurement noise.