远东热点:朝鲜半岛形势分析

朝鲜半岛独特的地理位置，无论对周边的中，俄，日三国，还是对大洋彼岸的美国都具有十分重要的地缘战略意义。如果说这里是四大国利益相互交错的唯一地区，那么解决朝鲜半岛问题便不仅取决于半岛内部北，南双方的互动关系，而且取决于四大四的立场及东北亚政治地理格局的演变态势。近年来随着朝鲜北，南双方首脑的成功会晤，朝鲜半岛的和平统一进程迈出了实质性步伐。但由于朝鲜半岛问题牵涉面广，影响因素复杂，从而使半岛的和平统一进程出现了一波三折的复杂局面，本文从政治地理学角度对半岛形势进行了分析。供关心朝鲜半岛局势的同仁参考。     

西藏自治区洛扎县冰湖溃决危险度评价

西藏自治区湖泊星罗棋布,在高山极高山地区分布大量冰湖,受各种因素的影响,有时会产生冰湖溃决并形成灾害。本文根据最新TM遥感影像对西藏自治区洛扎县283个冰湖进行了初步评价。依据冰湖类型、规模、后方现代冰川与冰湖的距离及冰湖离居民地、公路等设施的距离等,将冰湖溃决分为高危险度、中危险度及低危险度。并针对高危险度的冰湖提出防护对策。     

Present land use and cover patterns and their development potential in North Ningxia

With the objectives to acquire the fundamental data of the territorial resource, understand the impacts of human activities on the land use and cover patterns and evaluate the potential of the future exploitation, an intensive land cover classification with an accuracy of 93% has been completed for North Ningxia by remote sensing technique based on the adoption of a combination method composed of texture training, maximum likelihood classification and post-processing such as re-allocation and aggregation. This classification result was incorporated with the contemporaneous socio-economic and meteorological data for cross-sectional regression modelling to reveal the spatial determinants of the land cover patterns and understand the human-environmental relationships. A tentative evaluation on the potential of soil exploitation in the near future was carried out in combination with our land use and cover change detection results aiming at supplying some useful references for the central and local governments in their sustainable land use planning.     

b值在地震预测中的三类应用及其物理基础与须注意的问题

将b值在地震预测中的直接应用归为三类：1）根据b值的动态变化预测地震。2）根据G－R律求出各级地震平均复发周期或年均发生率，推测未来一定时段如50年或100年内发生各级地震的危险性。3）根据G－R直线在横轴的截距，预测强余震的震级。讨论了这三种用法的物理基础及现有工作中容易出现的问题。     

党政机关电子政务建设的若干问题

以从事政务信息化建设的实践经验为基础 ,对电子政务建设的基本问题进行了系统分析 ,内容包括 :信息关系和信息控制、信息分类、数据库结构、软件系统开发思路、电子政务的工作目标、服务对象、服务模式、电子政务建设的技术措施等。     

Recent Precipitation Trends in Hungary in the Context of Larger Scale Climatic Changes

The time series of monthly precipitation totals from 14 Hungarian observing stations (1901–1998) were analysed to reveal the long term changes in precipitation characteristics occurred in the 20th century. A particular attention was given to the changes in the recent decades and their links with the larger scale climatic and circulation changes over Europe and the Atlantic.The statistical significancesof systematic changes are controlled by linear trend analysis and the Mann–Kendall test. The long term fluctuations are illustrated applying a 15-point Gaussian filter on the time series. The Standardised Precipitation Index is used to evaluate the changes in the drought event frequency. The relationships with larger scale changes are mostly discussed relying on contemporary papers, and the Grosswetterlagen Catalogue is used as well.The annual precipitation total decreased by 15–20% in Hungary during the 20th century. The decline is substantial in both halves of the century, but the precipitation sums in the transition seasons declined in the first 50 years, and the winter precipitation decreased in the latest decades. The precipitation total of the period November–February declined significantly in the last 50 years. In the same time the mean winter value of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) increased, the positions of the main pressure patterns over the Atlantic are shifted northeastward, and lot of other coherent changes detected in the winter climate of the European–Atlantic region. The mean summer precipitation total has hardly changed, but the frequency of summer drought events increased. There are some signs of a shift of the Hungarian summer climate towards a Mediterranean like climate.     

济宁二号矿孤岛工作面冲击矿压危险及其控制

孤岛工作面及其周围巷道附近应力集中程度高,顶板运动剧烈,再加上地质构造的影响,采深较大时,冲击危险程度就高,很容易引发冲击矿压。《煤矿安全规程》要求孤岛工作面按冲击矿压危险工作面来管理。孤岛工作面冲击矿压危险检测预报及控制的技术是先分析冲击危险程度,确定冲击危险指数,提出早期预报;采用电磁辐射和钻屑法进行及时预报;采用卸压爆破进行处理,并采用电磁辐射和钻屑法检验防治措施的效果。实践证明,这套技术安全、可靠、有效,能够保证工作面的安全高效生产。     

脑卒中与气象要素关系的探讨

1994年1月至2000年12月北京地区若干社区脑卒中发病人数与同期气象资料分析结果表明：北京地区脑卒中发病有明显的季节性，冬春季高发，夏秋季低发；出血性脑卒中发病是春秋季高发，夏季低发；缺血性脑卒中发病是夏季高，秋季低。脑卒中发病与气温、气压和相对湿度有密切关系；寒冷与高温，气温、气压的剧烈变化等，可能是诱发脑卒中的重要气象因素。     

人地非线性相关作用的探讨

从自组织系统思想出发，提出了人地关系的基本特性，通过逻辑斯蒂听数学变换，分析了人地非线性相关作用的混沌特性，进而讨论了人地关系的分形性质。基于混 过程与分形结构的因果关系，指出：地球表层系统中的人文分形景观乃是人地非线性关系的混沌作用所致。     

地下厂房洞室群岩爆趋势综合预测方法

以拉西瓦水电站地下厂房洞室群原设计方案为例，基于其赋存地质条件调研结果和岩爆产生基本条件，对岩爆趋势进行宏观预测；并结合研究区其他高地应力现象，建立了岩爆预测类比判据。进而基于厂房开挖后二次应力场数值计算结果，以所建判据圈定了岩爆可能发生部位及强烈程度。结果表明，将宏观判据与类比判据结合的岩爆综合预测方法，考虑因素全面，也尊重了研究区实际情况，因而合理可行。