Analyzing and forecasting climate change in Harbin City,Northeast China

Based on sounding data from 1975 to 2005 and TM/ETM+ remote sensing images in 1989, 2001 and 2007, the climate changes in Harbin City, Northeast China in recent 30 years were analyzed and forecasted. Results show that in the lower troposphere the meridional wind speed and mean annual wind speed decrease, and in the lower stratosphere the temperature decreases while the meridional wind speed increases significantly. In the study area, the climate is becoming warmer and wetter in the middle lower troposphere. The expansion of urban area has great effects on the surface air temperature and the wind speed, leading to the increase of the surface air temperature, the decrease of the surface wind speed, and the increase of the area of urban high temperature zone. The quantitative equations have been established among the surface air temperature, the carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration and the specific humidity (the water vapor content). It is predicted that the future increasing rate of the surface air temperature is 0.85°C/10yr if emission concentration of CO₂ remains unchanged; if emission concentration of CO₂ decreases to 75%, 50% and 25%, respectively, the surface air temperature will increase 0.65°C/10yr, 0.46°C/10yr and 0.27°C/10yr, respectively. The rise of the surface air temperature in the study area is higher than that of the global mean temperature forecasted by IPCC.     

新世纪第一场沙尘暴初探

利用实时和历史常规气象观测资料与大气颗粒物污染监测资料,从沙尘暴天气实况、天气气候成因和对城市空气污染影响三方面,对世纪之交发生在我国北方的一次速度较快、强度较大的沙尘暴天气过程做了初步探讨。结果表明:①大型天气环流系统调整时的上下游效应,使乌拉尔山高压脊迅速发展东移,推动西伯利亚的一股较强冷空气南下,影响我国北方地区,加之高空急流动量的下传,是这次沙尘暴天气发生的环流背景和动能基础;②前期12月我国北方较正常年份温暖干燥,表层土质干燥疏松,沙尘源丰富,这是此次沙尘暴天气发生的物质基础;③沙尘天气的发生使我国北方城市空气污染雪上加霜,造成部分城市空气污染异常严重,大气颗粒物污染浓度增加100%~300%。     

巧家盆地黄土的粒度特征及其成因分析

通过对巧家盆地地区金沙江左岸阶地上的厚层黄土进行实地考察,并进行了系统采样和粒度特征分析,结果表明该区黄土的粒度组成较为一致,以10～50μm的“风成基本粒径”粗粉砂质为主,其含量在26．09％-46．06％。同时〉63μm的砂质也较大,在剖面顶部达到了28．73％,随着地层向下呈现出粗粒径减小,粘粒含量增大的趋势。巧家黄土地粒度频率曲线呈双峰态特征,与长江以南的典型红土有着相似的分布特征。其粒度组成与粒度参数特征反映了风成近源堆积特性,通过将巧家黄土的粒度参数特征与洛川黄土和河流相沉积的相对比,显示其与典型的风成黄土具有相同的成因。     

秦汉以来江西省名人分布及其成因

基于历代文献资料,结合历史文献追溯法、地理空间统计和GIS分析等方法,对江西省自秦汉以来的历史名人数量、分布特征、演变成因等方面进行研究。结果表明：从秦汉以来,江西省名人地域分布差异较大,赣中名人类型丰富,赣东北和赣南名人类型较为单一,赣江、抚河、信江中下游地区为名人集中区域。随着历史的演变,名人类型及规模逐渐丰富,名人重心轨迹由赣北向赣中、赣南转移;名人分布与发展不平衡是各地不同的自然条件、经济、教育、交通和人口迁移、宗族、科举家族和好学之风等因素共同作用的结果。     

安徽钻孔体应变数据变化特征分析

分析安徽省观测台网12套TJ-Ⅱ型体应变资料发现,其数据形态存在3类典型特征：一是数据连续漂移上升的年变化形态,日变化能记录到明显的固体潮汐;二是数据年变化形态同步于同井水位变化,体应变和水位的相关系数约为0.85;三是数据没有明显的年变化,数据形态多变。结合数据资料的内精度、钻孔环境、安装情况、干扰因素及产出资料显示的图像特征发现,3类典型特征主要和仪器、钻孔环境、安装质量关系密切。     

古尔班通古特沙漠固定与半固定沙丘成因初探

处于干旱荒漠区的古尔班通古特沙漠因降水、冬季的积雪、悬湿砂层、丘间地和背风坡的植被、沙丘表层微弱的分化、砂物质粒度等因素的综合影响 ,以固定和半固定沙丘为主。由于沙丘的稳定性差 ,人类活动过程中应加强对它的保护。     

三峡大坝下游水位变化与河道形态调整关系研究

三峡水库蓄水利用已有13年,对坝下游洪、枯水位和河道形态调整的影响已初步显现,通过对1955-2016年长江中游水位、河道地形等资料的分析,结果表明：① 坝下游各水文站同流量枯水位下降、洪水位变化不大,最低水位上升,最高水位下降趋势;② 2002年10月-2015年10月枯水河槽冲刷量占平滩河槽冲刷量的95.5%,冲淤分布由蓄水前“冲槽淤滩”转为“滩槽均冲”,不同蓄水阶段存在差异;③ 河槽冲刷过程中,上荆江及以上河段枯水位下降趋势趋缓,下荆江及以下河段下降速率增加,应采取防控措施遏制河道水位下降趋势;④ 枯水河槽冲刷是长江中下游航道水深提升的基础,枯水位降幅小于深槽下切深度,在河道和航道整治工程综合作用下航道尺度提升,提前5年实现了2020年航道尺度规划目标;⑤ 平滩水位以上河槽形态调整不大,在河床粗化、岸滩植被、人类活动等综合作用下河道综合阻力增加,出现了中洪水流量—高水位现象,应引起足够重视。三峡水库汛期调蓄作用可有效提升中下游洪水防御能力,但不排除遭遇支流洪水叠加效应,中下游洪水压力仍然较大。     

江西省温泉伴生气氦含量特征及其成因分析

通过对江西省内的54件温泉伴生气体样品进行气体全组分、氦含量、氦同位素等实验测试,分析了温泉伴生气体组分和伴生氦分布特征及成因类型。结果显示：江西省内温泉伴生气体组分以N2和CO2为主,且普遍含有氦气,氦含量分布总体呈现南高北低的特征;氦气平均体积含量为0.3%,最高含量达1.83%,达到工业品位(0.1%)的18倍,具备较好的资源潜力;初步圈定了赣南西部遂川-崇义-大余以西区域、东南部寻乌-会昌-瑞金地区为氦气远景区;根据氦同位素特征显示,氦气资源总体表现为壳源为主、幔源为辅的复合成因特征。     

Constitutive description of interface behavior including cyclic loading and particle breakage within the framework of critical state soil mechanics

The cyclic behavior of soil–structure interface can be very important in dynamic problems. The cyclic behavior of soil–structure interface may be nonlinear, which includes hysteresis, hardening, degradation, and particle breakage. The breakage of granular soil particles during shearing of granular soil–structure interface is associated with cyclic degradation and can be critical to the dynamic behavior of soil–structure system. The critical state soil mechanics concept formerly used to simulate the nonlinear monotonic behavior of granular soil–structure interface was modified and extended to describe the cyclic behavior, especially soil‐particle breakage and degradation during cyclic shearing. Soil‐particle breakage was assumed to relate to the energy consumption during cyclic shearing and the critical state line of the soil–structure interface was assumed to translate with the consumption of shearing energy during cyclic shearing as the threshold value is attained. The model was formulated in the framework of generalized plasticity and is capable of describing the salient features of granular soil–structure interface under cyclic loading. Most of the model parameters have straightforward physical meanings and are calibrated using monotonic or cyclic interface test results. The proposed model was calibrated and validated against published test results. The dependency of interface behavior on stress path and cyclic degradation can be successfully described by the proposed model. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

近30年《诗经》人物形象研究综述

从形象分析、艺术手法、特征成因、道德意蕴等4个方面综述了近30年学界对《诗经》人物形象研究的成果。对女性形象的分析主要是描绘外貌、赞扬优秀品质,对男性形象的分析主要是论述人物体现的道德品质;塑造人物的艺术手法包括赋、比、兴以及外貌描写等刻画人物的一般手法;特征成因则包括宗教意识、审美传统以及社会背景;人物形象体现了孝悌、正直、忠君爱国的道德意识。研究的不足主要表现在对《诗经》中人物形象分析的重复,对其塑造人物的艺术手法挖掘不够,对人物形象体现的道德意蕴的现实意义缺乏深入探讨。