2002年7～8月海河流域面雨量预报的误差分析

对天津市气象台和河北省气象台在2002年7—8月的海河流域面雨量24h、48h预报进行了误差对比分析，列举了几种预报误差，并利用模糊数学中的综合评判法，计算了它们的模糊评分。结果表明：海河流域的面雨量预报有一定的可信度，把其作为水文模式的初值，有较高的利用价值；对于各气象台各自辖区内的预报，范围越小，预报越准确；在对面雨量预报效果的评估上，80％(或80)这一数值是客观、可信的。     

GIS中的应用模型及其管理研究

本文通过对ＧＩＳ模型库系统的研究，讨论了ＧＩＳ应用模型的管理及ＧＩＳ应用模型发展中的若干问题。     

三峡工程大江截流的水文技术

鉴于三峡工程大江截流水深大，流量大，工期紧，特别是截流过程中要考虑不断航因素，因此，在大江截流和二期围堰阶段的施工进程中，应充分考虑到各方面的因素，尽可能采取一切减少大江截流和二期围堰施工难度的手段和措施，其中水文测验，水文气象预报，河道观测，水文分析与计算和水力学计算等水文工作则是为顺利实施高质量大江截流的重要条件。     

STUDIES ON TERRACES AND RIVER SYSTEM CHANGES OF THE UPPER YELLOW RIVER

Ｉ.ＴｈｅＴｅｒｒａｃｅｓｏｆｔｈｅＵｐｐｅｒＹｅｌｌｏｗＲｉｖｅｒＴｈｅｔｅｒｒａｃｅｓｏｆｔｈｅｕｐｐｅｒＹｅｌｌｏｗＲｉｖｅｒａｒｅｍｏｓｔｌｙｄｉｓｐｅｒｓｅｄａｌｏｎｇｔｈｅｗｉｄｅｒｃｏｕｒｓｅｓｉｎｓｅｖｅｒａｌＭｅｓｏｚｏｉｃＣｅｎｏｚｏｉｃｂａｓｉｎｓ(Ｆｉｇｕｒｅ1).1.ＴｅｒｒａｃｅｓｂｅｔｗｅｅｎＮｇｏｒｉｎｇＬａｋｅａｎｄＧｙａｒｉｎｇＬａｋｅＴｈｅｓｕｒｆａｃｅｌａｙｅｒｓｏｆｔｈｅｓｅｄｉｍｅｎｔｉｎｔｈｅｗｉｄｅａｎｄｓｈａｌｌｏｗｂａｓｉｎｓｗｈｅｒｅｔｈｅＹｅｌｌ…     

天山北坡降水对河流水沙情势影响

以天山北坡头屯河流域为例，在对山区不同海拔的降水特征、侵蚀产沙情势以及河流水沙运移特点分析的基础上，详尽就山区降水对河流水沙情势的年际变化、年内变化以及月变化的影响进行了分析研究，并就降水对不同海拔的河流水沙情势的影响强度及相互关系作了探讨．     

中国古大陆及其边缘早古生代层序地层及海平面变化的基本特征

着重总结了我国古大陆及其边缘早古生代大层序（ｍｅｇａｓｅｑｕｅｎｃｅ，一级层序）和中层序（ｍｅｓｏｓｅｑｕｅｎｃｅ，二级层序），以及一级、二级海平面变化的基本特征，并与国外早古生代海平面变化进行对比．我国３大古陆（华北陆块、扬子陆块、塔里木陆块）及其边缘早古生代大层序可划分为两个（ＭＧ－１，ＭＧ－２）．中层序划分为５个（ＭＳ－１，ＭＳ－２，ＭＳ－３，ＭＳ－４，ＭＳ－５）．ＭＧ－１包括ＭＳ－１，ＭＳ－２和ＭＳ－３，时限为９４～１１２Ｍａ（寒武纪和早奥陶世），底以巨大不整合为界，顶以著名巨大沉没不整合为限，沉积了我国显生宙大部分的碳酸盐岩，赋存着丰富的油气和各种金属及非金属矿产．ＭＧ－２包括ＭＳ－４和ＭＳ－５，时限为５８～６８Ｍａ（中、晚奥陶世和志留纪），底界以巨大沉没不整合为界，为硅质碎屑－碳酸盐岩组合．海平面变化的级别划分对应于层序．中国３大古陆及其边缘早古生代海平面变化的总貌：ＭＧＳＣ－１初期普遍发生快速海进，海平面升高，尔后海平面下降，其间有多期次的小幅度海进和海退变化．ＭＧＳＣ－２则普遍海平面升高，上升幅度大于ＭＧＳＣ－１，尔后逐渐下降．     

Effects of geology and human activity on the dynamics of salt-water intrusion in three coastal aquifers in southern Spain

 Mathematical modelling of salt-water intrusion processes in three aquifers on the southern coast of Spain (Río Verde, Río Vélez and Castell de Ferro) reveals that, although all three systems are subject to the same climate and seasonal over-exploitation, geological and human factors have very different effects on the dynamics of contamination. In the Río Verde aquifer, the most important influence is the high volume of extractions occurring during the dry season; in Río Vélez, the intrusion is strongly controlled by infiltration of water from the river to the aquifer, and, in the Castell de Ferro system, an intensely karstified carbonate massif lying in contact with both the sea water and the detrital aquifer represents the main entrance point for influx of sea water and subsequent washing of the aquifer. We have undertaken a mathematical simulation of various possible measures to counteract intrusion, according to the specific characteristics of the process in each aquifer. These measures include artificial recharge, use of natural recharge from the river as a hydraulic barrier, and the construction of a low-permeability barrier. Received: 5 December 1995 · Accepted: 12 April 1996     

Methodical approach to distribution of epilithic and drifting algae communities in a French subalpine river: Inferences on water quality assessment

In a sub-alpine river, the Asse, with an unpredictable discharge regime, chlorophyll, density and taxonomic diversity of both drifting and periphytic communities were studied from a methodical approach. The investigations based on stamping two close cross-sections to know their spatial distributions in a heterogeneous bed substrate showed a heterogeneous pattern of colonization mainly influenced by hydrological variables as the current velocity, the size of the substrata (gravel-pebble-boulder). For the drifting algae, mainly composed with benthic species temporarily unhooked to the substrata, the heterogeneity of the distribution was reduced in fast flow which induced a mixing of the whole mass of water. For the periphyton, some results indicated that the greatest diversity and the highest chlorophyll concentration were found on pebble substratum where the current velocity was moderate. These results have also shown that the classical methods used to day for investigations were inadequate for most Mediterranean rivers. It was really difficult to estimate the water quality from classical index created for use in regular large plain rivers.     

长江三峡狮子口重力滑动构造

围绕着长江三峡库处区狮子口ＮＮＷ向线性影像带的构造性及其地壳稳定性评价问题进行了专题研究，以区域地质调查为基础，运用构造解析方法，采用多学科，多手段的综合研究，确认该影像带影像特征最明显的地段乃是一个滑褶型多层式得力滑动构造，本文还分析了该系统形成的介质条件，斜坡构造及动力环境。     

Sequence Stratigraphy of the Permian--Triassia Boundary Section of Changxing, Zhejiang, Southern China

Three third-order sequences and about one hundred high-frequency cycles or Milankovitchcycles within the Late Permian Changxingian to Early Triassic Griesbachian are identified in theMeishan Section of Changxing, Zhejiang Province, southern China, the candidate stratotype sec-tion of the global Permo-Triassic boundary, based on a detailed study of the biological,ecological and high-resolution allochthonous cyclic events, microfacies and depositional systems.Furthermore, the stacking pattern of the depositional systems across various Changxingian andGriesbachian sedimentary facies of the Lower Yangtze and the sequence stratigraphic frameworkare outlined with the Meishan section as the principal section. In this paper the habitat types offossil biota are applied to semiquantitative palaeobathymetry and the study of relative sea levelchanges.