Elasticity soltion of rupture model of shallow earthquake

Based on the theory of elastic mechanics, and using the typical rupture model of shallow earthquake, the authors considered the shallow earthquake as a plane mechanical problem, which was constructed the corresponding mechanical model. By the stress components' formulas of the semi-infinite model acted by the finite even shearing force, the main stress is deduced. It is clear that the sector on the right of the center section is squeezed zone, where the maximum principal stress points at the "source of stress", and that on the left is tensile zone, where the minimum principal stress points to the "source of stress".     

Scaling of response spectrum and duration for aftershocks

Aftershocks have the potential to cause collapse of a structure that has been already damaged by the preceding main shock. Seismic safety of a structure should therefore be ascertained through a damage analysis using the anticipated main shock and few larger-aftershock motions. Simulation of aftershock motions needs characterization of the seismic hazard due to aftershocks, and therefore it will be useful to develop a conditional scaling model that can predict the response spectrum of an anticipated aftershock motion consistent with the design spectrum of the main shock motion anticipated at the same station. In this study an attempt is made to develop a conditional scaling model for the pseudo spectral velocity spectrum via linear regression analysis on the aftershock and main shock recordings for the 1999 Chi–Chi earthquake. It is shown that it may be possible to obtain a simpler and approximate version of the conditional model from an unconditional model. Damage-causing potential of a ground motion also depends on its strong motion duration (SMD) and therefore a conditional scaling model is developed for SMD of the aftershock motion in several narrow frequency-bands. The model is developed for the larger-aftershock motions and it is shown that a reasonable replacement of such a model may be obtainable directly from an unconditional model. Finally, a simple weighted averaging scheme is proposed to obtain the composite SMD from the SMDs for different frequency bands by using the pseudo spectral acceleration spectrum of the motion.     

Crustal Growth by Magmatic Accretion Constrained by Metamorphic P-T Paths and Thermal Models of the Kohistan Arc, NW Himalayas

Magmatic accretion is potentially an important mechanism inthe growth of the continental crust and the formation of granulites.In this study, the thermal evolution of a magmatic arc in responseto magmatic accretion is modeled using numerical solutions ofthe one-dimensional heat conduction equation. The initial andboundary conditions used in the model are constrained by geologicalobservations made in the Kohistan area, NW Himalayas. Takingconsideration of the preferred intrusion locations for basalticmagmas, we consider two plausible modes of magmatic accretion:the first involves the repeated intrusion of basalt at mid-crustaldepths (‘intraplate model’), and the second evaluatesthe simultaneous intrusion of basalt and picrite at mid-crustaldepths and the base of the crust respectively (‘double-platemodel’). The results of the double-plate model accountfor both the inferred metamorphic P–T paths of the Kohistanmafic granulites and the continental geotherm determined frompeak P–T conditions observed for granulite terranes. Thedouble-plate model may be applicable as a key growth processfor the production of thick mafic lower crust in magmatic arcs. KEY WORDS: thermal model; magmatic underplating; P–T path; granulite; lower crust     

基于地质记录用时域组合模型预测气候变化趋势的初步研究

用时域分析组合模型建立了１００万年来６０°Ｎ６月份太阳辐射量时间序列、宝鸡黄土粒度时间序列、渭南夏季风指数时间序列的动态模型．研究结果表明,时域分析组合模型较好地提取了时间序列的信息,得到的几个显著周期Ｔ＝１３３,１００,８９,４１,２３,１９ｋａ,与地球轨道三要素的变化周期接近．用组合模型拟合实测数据,精度是高的;用其预测未来气候替代性指标时间序列的变化情况,发现未来气候有向干冷方向发展的趋势．时域分析组合模型为研究气候变化趋势提供了一种定量分析、预测的方法．     

基于准三维有限元方法建立的地震活动模型

基于有限元方法,参照细胞自动机模型,建立了一个地震活动演化的动力学模型.在这个模型中,根据边界条件和单元介质参数的分布,利用有限元方法确定各单元的应力增长速率.每个单元设定初始应力和摩擦因数,利用破裂准则可得到单元破裂所需时间.当单元破裂后,将破裂单元作为内部边界,利用有限元方法计算由于这个单元破裂对系统其他单元造成的应力调整.根据上述规则,建立一个由30×40个节点组成,在定常位移速率边界条件作用下的地震活动模型,探讨了区域应力场的动态演化、地震活动图像和各种参数变化对地震活动的影响.结果表明该模型在研究地震活动方面有一定优势并具有实用价值.     

地磁低点位移法的改进

中低纬度地磁场平静太阳日变化Z分量的极小值出现的时刻常被用于地震预报,即"低点位移"法,但现有算法的时间格式和人工绘制突变界线的模式会产生较大的误差,本文在第一部分针对这些误差改进了原有算法.第一项是改进了地磁低点时间的格式,第二项是引入了Voronoi剖分技术替代人工画线.前者过滤了假的突变界线,消除了系统误差;后者建立了突变界线与地磁台网低点数据之间的解析关系,使它们一一对应,消除了随机误差.本文第二部分内容是提出了新的时间格式与数字化突变界线的计算公式,并用程序实现计算任务.本文第三部分内容是在对地磁台网的低点时间跟踪的过程中,捕捉到了甘肃省周边几次地震前的地磁低点位移现象,并分析这些案例,在结论中证明该方法的可靠性.     

雷暴探测研究的进展

基于达州市2015年10月-2016年9月的闪电定位和探空观测资料,以850 hPa与500 hPa温差、大气可降水量、K指数、对流有效位能、对流抑制和抬升指数作为雷暴预警因子,利用投影寻踪动态聚类方法对该时段内的雷暴个例构建了预警模型。结果表明：（1）模型预报结果定量评估的临界成功指数为72.00%,该模型对个例达到了识别和预警效果;（2）该预警模型与常规预警方法相比,具有识别率高,计算简便,客观性强等特点,可为雷暴预警提供了一种新的客观预报方法。

     

A DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS OF AIR TEMPERATURE ANOMALY MODE OVER CHINA IN 2009/2010 WINTER BASED ON GENERALIZED EQUILIBRIUM FEEDBACK ASSESSMENT (GEFA) METHOD

By using the observed monthly mean data over 160 stations of China and NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data, the generalized equilibrium feedback assessment(GEFA) method, combined with the methods of EOF analysis, correlation and composite analysis, is used to explore the influence of different SST modes on a wintertime air temperature pattern in which it is cold in the northeast and warm in the southwest in China. The results show that the 2009/2010 winter air temperature oscillation mode between the northern and southern part of China is closely related to the corresponding sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA) and its associated atmospheric circulation anomalies. Exhibiting warming in Northeast China and cooling in Southwest China, the mode is significantly forced by the El Nio mode and the North Atlantic SSTA mode, which have three poles. Under the influence of SSTA modes, the surface northerly flow transported cold air to North and Northeast China, resulting in low temperatures in the regions. Meanwhile, the mid-latitude westerlies intensify and the polar cold air stays in high latitudes and cannot affect the Southwest China, resulting in the warming there.     

On determining the noon polar cap boundary from SuperDARN HF radar backscatter characteristics

Previous work has shown that ionospheric HF radar backscatter in the noon sector can be used to locate the footprint of the magnetospheric cusp particle precipitation. This has enabled the radar data to be used as a proxy for the location of the polar cap boundary, and hence measure the flow of plasma across it to derive the reconnection electric field in the ionosphere. This work used only single radar data sets with a field of view limited to 2 h of local time. In this case study using four of the SuperDARN radars, we examine the boundary determined over 6 h of magnetic local time around the noon sector and its relationship to the convection pattern. The variation with longitude of the latitude of the radar scatter with cusp characteristics shows a bay-like feature. It is shown that this feature is shaped by the variation with longitude of the poleward flow component of the ionospheric plasma and may be understood in terms of cusp ion time-of-flight effects. Using this interpretation, we derive the time-of-flight of the cusp ions and find that it is consistent with approximately 1 keV ions injected from a subsolar reconnection site. A method for deriving a more accurate estimate of the location of the open-closed field line boundary from HF radar data is described.     

Compositional Zoning of the Bishop Tuff

Compositional data for >400 pumice clasts, organized accordingto eruptive sequence, crystal content, and texture, providenew perspectives on eruption and pre-eruptive evolution of the>600 km³ of zoned rhyolitic magma ejected as the Bishop Tuffduring formation of Long Valley caldera. Proportions and compositionsof different pumice types are given for each ignimbrite packageand for the intercalated plinian pumice-fall layers that eruptedsynchronously. Although withdrawal of the zoned magma was lesssystematic than previously realized, the overall sequence displaystrends toward greater proportions of less evolved pumice, morecrystals (0·5–24 wt %), and higher FeTi-oxide temperatures(714–818°C). No significant hiatus took place duringthe 6 day eruption of the Bishop Tuff, nearly all of which issuedfrom an integrated, zoned, unitary reservoir. Shortly beforeeruption, however, the zoned melt-dominant portion of the chamberwas invaded by batches of disparate lower-silica rhyolite magma,poorer in crystals than most of the resident magma but slightlyhotter and richer in Ba, Sr, and Ti. Interaction with residentmagma at the deepest levels tapped promoted growth of Ti-richrims on quartz, Ba-rich rims on sanidine, and entrapment ofnear-rim melt inclusions relatively enriched in Ba and CO₂.Varied amounts of mingling, even in higher parts of the chamber,led to the dark gray and swirly crystal-poor pumices sparselypresent in all ash-flow packages. As shown by FeTi-oxide geothermometry,the zoned rhyolitic chamber was hottest where crystal-richest,rendering any model of solidification fronts at the walls orroof unlikely. The main compositional gradient (75–195ppm Rb; 0·8–2·2 ppm Ta; 71–154 ppmZr; 0·40–1·73% FeO*) existed in the melt,prior to crystallization of the phenocryst suite observed, whichincluded zircon as much as 100 kyr older than the eruption.The compositions of crystals, though themselves largely unzoned,generally reflect magma temperature and the bulk compositionalgradient, implying both that few crystals settled or were transportedfar and that the observed crystals contributed little to establishingthat gradient. Upward increases in aqueous gas and dissolvedwater, combined with the adiabatic gradient (for the 5 km depthrange tapped) and the roofward decline in liquidus temperatureof the zoned melt, prevented significant crystallization againstthe roof, consistent with dominance of crystal-poor magma earlyin the eruption and lack of any roof-rind fragments among theBishop ejecta, before or after onset of caldera collapse. Amodel of secular incremental zoning is advanced wherein numerousbatches of crystal-poor melt were released from a mush zone(many kilometers thick) that floored the accumulating rhyoliticmelt-rich body. Each batch rose to its own appropriate levelin the melt-buoyancy gradient, which was self-sustaining againstwholesale convective re-homogenization, while the thick mushzone below buffered it against disruption by the deeper (non-rhyolitic)recharge that augmented the mush zone and thermally sustainedthe whole magma chamber. Crystal–melt fractionation wasthe dominant zoning process, but it took place not principallyin the shallow melt-rich body but mostly in the pluton-scalemush zone before and during batchwise melt extraction. KEY WORDS: Bishop Tuff; ignimbrite; magma zonation; mush model; rhyolite