Temperature Extremes from Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) Climate Change Projections

Future climate projections of extreme events can help forewarn society of high-impact events and allow the development of better adaptation strategies. In this study a non-stationary model for Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions is used to analyze the trend in extreme temperatures in the context of a changing climate and compare it with the trend in average temperatures.

The analysis is performed using the climate projections of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM), under an IPCC SRES A2 greenhouse gas emissions scenario, over North America. Annual extremes in daily minimum and maximum temperatures are analyzed. Significant positive trends for the location parameter of the GEV distribution are found, indicating an expected increase in extreme temperature values. The scale parameter of the GEV distribution, on the other hand, reveals a decrease in the variability of temperature extremes in some continental regions. Trends in the annual minimum and maximum temperatures are compared with trends in average winter and summer temperatures, respectively. In some regions, extreme temperatures exhibit a significantly larger increase than the seasonal average temperatures.

The CRCM projections are compared with those of its driving model and framed in the context of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3 (CMIP3) Global Climate Model projections. This enables us to establish the CRCM position within the CMIP3 climate projection uncertainty range. The CRCM is validated against the HadEX2 dataset in order to assess the CRCM representation of temperature extremes in the present climate. The validation is also framed in the context of CMIP3 validation results. The CRCM cold extremes validate better and are closer to the driving model and CMIP3 projections than the hot extremes.     

最短路径算法用于城市公交出行路径最优化

介绍了经典Dijk st ra算法的主要思想快速实现方法，指出了公交网络不同于一般的道路网络的特点，给出了选择公交出行路径的算法思想。     

刍议我国直流冷却电厂冷却用水生态危害与减损

根据我国滨海电厂发电现状与发展趋势,本研究评述了我国火电和核电厂直流冷却需水量以及电厂规模化直流冷却用水对海洋生态系统的影响,包括取水卷塞效应导致生物伤害及其机理,卷载和温排水对海洋生物和海洋生态系统的负面影响。本研究估算了取排水导致的卷塞和卷载损失量。同时,以大亚湾生态系统变化为例,探讨了取排水的可能影响,提出了底栖贝类食物链形成的假设。由于电厂取排水对海洋生态系统构成实际和潜在危害,因此,有必要采取措施缓解电厂取水造成的环境影响。在对电厂的取排水海洋环境评估的基础上,电厂可以利用最佳实践技术（Best Technique Available, BTA）,避免或减轻取排水对海洋生态系统的影响,维护冷却海水资源开发的可持续性。减损措施不仅有利于海洋生态保护,也有利于电厂的冷源安全。     

The 9th of July 1998 Faial Island (Azores,North Atlantic) seismic sequence

The Faial earthquake (M _L 5.8) that occurred on the 9th of July, 1998, in the Azores region (north Atlantic), caused nine casualties and severe destruction affecting more than 5,000 people. The main shock was located at sea, 10 km NE of the Faial Island, and triggered a seismic sequence that lasted for several weeks and was characterized by an unusual high p-value of 1.40 for the modified Omori law. We present here the results of a joint inversion of hypocenters and 1D velocity model performed on the data collected by the permanent network complemented with a temporary network installed shortly after the occurrence of the main event. The 1D velocity model shows a heterogeneous upper crust, testified by the observed differences in site effects at the stations, while the middle crust from ∼2.5 to 8 km in depth is quite homogeneous. The Moho is located at a depth of about 12–13 km and the Vp/Vs ratio is found to be around 1.78. The events at depth are mainly concentrated in the middle-lower crust (8–12 km), while their spatial distribution shows a main cluster, visible after relocation, SSE trending. This direction of elongation is consistent with one of the fault planes (N151°E) of the centroid moment tensor (CMT) solution for the main shock. The same plane is the preferred main shock fault plane inferred after a Coulomb failure function analysis on the aftershock distribution. The main event relocation points to a focal depth shallower than 5 km. The aftershocks pattern shows that several fault systems were reactivated by the stress perturbation induced by the main shock. Besides the two main tectonic directions, trending WNW–ESE and NNW–SSE, observed in the tectonics of Faial, Pico, and S. Jorge, there is also evidence of a new tectonic direction trending WSW–ENE.     

一种最佳基小波包变换的影像融合研究

在将小波包变换应用于影像融合的过程中,选择不同性质的小波包基,会得到不同效果的融合影像。如何在其中找到性质最好的小波包基,即最佳小波包基,并在此基础上实现影像的融合具有重要的意义。影像融合涉及到两幅影像,最佳小波包基的搜索需要在两棵小波包树上进行,而已有的最佳小波包基搜索算法只能在一棵小波包树上实现。本文提出了一种在两棵小波包树上搜索最佳小波包基的算法,并基于由此算法得到的最佳小波包基,实现了一种新的基于最佳基小波包变换的影像融合。试验结果表明:在采用基于特征的融合规则的条件下,该方法所得的融合影像,无论是在视觉效果上还是在评价指标上都优于由其他小波包变换方法(包括小波变换方法)得到的融合影像。     

近地大气物理现象与光电测距精度的关系

本文根据大气温度层结状态,讨论两种光电测距最佳观测时刻的理论。指出,在不稳定湍流状态下,更有利于获得高精度的观测值。     

四川省山地类型界定与山区类型划分

山地类型的界定是科学认知山地规律的基础,对山地科学的发展有着基础性的意义。山地科学研究的出发点与落脚点,是为了促进山区区域在各方面的可持续发展,所以在山地类型界定的研究结果基础上对山区类型进行划分,是山区可持续发展的基本科学依据。采用GIS技术并结合DEM数据,对四川省的山地类型进行界定,同时对山区的类型进行划分。在山地类型界定涉及到的地形起伏度计算中,对均值变点法的应用结果进行了讨论与改进,得到地形起伏度最佳统计单元为9.92 km2。将四川省山地类型界定为丘陵、低山、中低山、中山、次高山、高山、极高山;将山区划分为纯丘陵县、半山区县、准山区县、显山区县、整山区县,并对山区发展的政策方向提出了一定的建议。     

Near‐optimal piecewise linear fits of static pushover capacity curves for equivalent SDOF analysis

The piecewise linear (‘multilinear’) approximation of realistic force‐deformation capacity curves is investigated for structural systems incorporating generalized plastic, hardening, and negative stiffness behaviors. This fitting process factually links capacity and demand and lies at the core of nonlinear static assessment procedures. Despite codification, the various fitting rules used can produce highly heterogeneous results for the same capacity curve, especially for the highly‐curved backbones resulting from the gradual plasticization or the progressive failures of structural elements. To achieve an improved fit, the error introduced by the approximation is quantified by studying it at the single‐degree‐of‐freedom level, thus avoiding any issues related to multi‐degree‐of‐freedom versus single‐degree‐of‐freedom realizations. Incremental dynamic analysis is employed to enable a direct comparison of the actual backbones versus their candidate piecewise linear approximations in terms of the spectral acceleration capacity for a continuum of limit‐states. In all cases, current code‐based procedures are found to be highly biased wherever widespread significant stiffness changes occur, generally leading to very conservative estimates of performance. The practical rules determined allow, instead, the definition of standardized low‐bias bilinear, trilinear, or quadrilinear approximations, regardless of the details of the capacity curve shape. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于分式析因及最佳子集回归的多种污染物复合污染特征——阿特拉津与多种污染物在松花江沉积物上的吸附效应

为揭示农药（晶体乐果、甲霜灵、阿特拉津、马拉硫磷、扑草净）与重金属（铜、锌、铅、镉、镍）10种污染物共存时的复合污染规律,以阿特拉津为目标污染物,采用分辨度为Ⅲ的2^10-6分式析因实验设计,并用完全折叠实验和区组设计进行辅助,通过多元线性回归的建模方法筛选并建立了以阿特拉津为因变量、10种污染物因子主效应和二阶交互效应为自变量的多元线性回归吸附模型。研究表明：共存体系中因子主效应项铅、铜、锌、镉、镍和农药晶体乐果显著抑制（显著性水平α=0.05）阿特拉津在沉积物上的吸附,与阿特拉津产生竞争吸附效应,因重金属主效应产生的拮抗作用占总拮抗作用的63.5%,其拮抗作用从大到小为镍、镉、晶体乐果、锌、铅、铜;在以镍为关键自变量的二阶交互效应项中,因二阶交互效应项产生的协同或拮抗作用占阿特拉津吸附能力的35.3%,其中,铅、镉和晶体乐果抑制镍与阿特拉津的竞争吸附,与阿特拉津在沉积物上的吸附发生协同作用,协同作用从大到小为镉×镍、铅×镍、镍×晶体乐果;而镍作为调节自变量的二阶交互效应项镍阿特拉津会促进阿特拉津的吸附,说明多种污染物共存体系中重金属镍对阿特拉津在沉积物上吸附影响作用的复杂性和重要性。     

超宽与甚宽频带地震计阶跃标定的加权动态拟合法

阐述了由阶跃响应确定超宽频带与甚宽频带地震计二阶系统传递函数的特征参数的方法。首先分析了现有的曲线拟合法在测试精度、收敛速度、拟合方法的通用性等方面存在的不足,然后给出了一种更加完善的精确求取二阶系统传递函数特征参数的方法——加权动态拟合法,详细论述了加权动态拟合法的数学原理,并设计了拟合计算程序。