Prediction of rainfall-triggered landslides: a test of the Antecedent Water Status Model

A rainfall-based landslide-triggering model, developed from previous landslide episodes in Wellington City, New Zealand, is tested for its ability to provide a 24-hour forecast of landslide occurrence. The model, referred to as the Antecedent Water Status Model, calculates an index of soil water, by running a daily water balance and applying a soil drainage factor to excess precipitation, over the preceding ten days. Together with the daily rainfall input, the soil water status has been used empirically to identify a threshold condition for landslide triggering. The prediction process provides a daily update of the soil water status and thereby the amount of rainfall required on the following day to equal or exceed the triggering threshold. The probability that this triggering rainfall will occur is then determined from the frequency/magnitude distribution of the local rainfall record. The model produces a satisfactory level of prediction, particularly for periods of concentrated landslide activity. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Slopewash,surface runoff and fine-litter transport in forest and landslide scars in humid-tropical steeplands,luquillo experimental forest,Puerto Rico

Rainfall, slopewash (the erosion of soil particles), surface runoff and fine-litter transport steepland sites in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico (18° 20’ N, 65° 45’ W) were measured from 1991 to 1995. Hillslopes underlain by (1) Cretaceous tuffaceous sandstone and silstone in subtropical rain (tanonuco) forest with vegetation recovering from Hurricane Hugo (1989), and (2) Tertiary quartz diorite in subtropical lower mantone wet (colorado and dwarf) forest with undisturbed forest canopy were compared to recent landslide scars. Monthly surface runoff on these very steep hillslopes (24° to 43°) was only 0·2 to 0·5 per cent of monthly rainfall. Slopewash was higher in sandy loam soils whose parent material is quartz diorite (averaging 46 g m⁻² a⁻¹) than in silty clay loam soils derived from tuffaceous sandstone and siltstone where the average was 9 g m⁻² a⁻¹. Annual slopewash of 100 to 349 g m⁻² on the surfaces of two recent, small landslide scars was measured initially but slopewash decreased to only 3 to 4 g m⁻² a⁻¹ by the end of the study. The mean annual mass of fine litter (mainly leaves and twigs) transported downslope at the forested sites ranged from 5 to 8 g m⁻² and was lower at the tabonuco forest site, where post-Hurricane Hugo recovery is still in progress. Mean annual fine-litter transport was 2·5 g m⁻² on the two landslide scars. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Wave erosion of a massive artificial coastal landslide

The Lone Tree landslide is located on the coast north of San Francisco, California, and is unusual in that it is positioned within the San Andreas fault zone. Its material ranges from mud through to boulders, which makes the slide particularly susceptible to mass movement. Movement of its western half increased following the Loma Prieta earthquake in 1989, closing an important highway for over a year, at which time a large cut-and-fill operation was undertaken to remove the upper portion of the slide so it would create no future disruption. Material cut from the upper slide was dumped below the highway, with the debris extending into the ocean. This created an artificial debris fill that is equivalent to a massive natural landslide, and a unique opportunity to monitor its erosion. Rainfall quickly eroded a series of rills into the face of the artificially created landslide, but the concentration of gravel and cobbles armoured these small channels, greatly reducing the rate of subsequent erosion. Waves cut away the toe, and the focus of this paper is on the development of a model to analyse the frequency of wave attack in terms of tide levels and wave conditions. A beach consisting of cobbles and boulders formed at the toe of the debris, offering partial protection and reducing the rate of continued erosion. In the short term, armouring of the rills and the development of a fronting beach have reduced the overall erosion of the debris and the transfer of sediment to the ocean. In the longer term, the formation of secondary slumps can be expected to renew the erosion. Eventually the morphology of the debris fill should approach the configuration of the natural landslide, an unmodified portion of which remains adjacent to the artificial fill. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

煤岩水力压裂裂缝扩展形态试验研究

通过室内水力压裂物理模拟试验系统,对大尺寸原煤进行了水力压裂模拟试验,根据水力裂缝的空间展布形态分析了煤岩储层水力裂缝的延伸规律,揭示了网状裂缝的形成机制。结果表明：水力裂缝易在弱层理处分叉和转向,发育的层理和裂缝系统等结构面为压裂形成裂缝网络提供了前提条件。泵压曲线呈现出的频繁波动是煤岩内产生网状裂缝的一个显著特征。水力裂缝的起裂与延伸有4种基本模式,裂缝网络的形成多为这4种基本模式的组合。地应力差异系数和泵注排量对煤层水力裂缝形态有较大影响。较小的地应力差异系数更利于网状裂缝的形成;较高的压裂液排量易形成相对简单的裂缝形态,导致压裂改造效果较差。该试验方法和试验结果可为现场水力压裂参数设计和优化提供参考和依据。     

芦山地震崩滑灾害空间分布及相关问题探讨

由于逆断层作用,2013年芦山M_S 7.0地震诱发的崩滑地质灾害分布表现出了明显的上盘效应与方向效应。在震后应急科考中未发现发震断层的地表破裂带,然而灾区大量出现的地震诱发滑坡、崩塌,加之密集的余震分布、地震烈度调查结果等,提供了确定芦山地震宏观震中、地震动错动方向以及研究地震发震构造等的诸多线索。 统计结果表明,芦山地震诱发的滑坡、崩塌具有明显的优势滑动方向（135°～144°）,该方向揭示了地震断层的错动方向,与震源机制解反映的一致,大体垂直于发震断层的走向;从地震诱发崩塌、滑坡灾害点的分布与密度判断,宏观震中位于宝盛乡北,在仪器记录震中东北约3.6km处;从余震群分布、地震诱发滑坡分布特点及地震等烈度线等,结合以往强震如汶川地震等的调查经验,推测当震级足够大时,发震断层地表破裂带可能通过地质灾害、余震密集区东侧的边缘地带,总体平行于双石-大川断裂。另外,通过分析地层岩性与崩滑地形条件之间的关联性,发现崩滑灾害在某些地层岩性中易发,灾害点呈线性排列的原因是不同地层岩性之间抗风化能力的差异性,造成在地层分界线上形成线性陡崖或高坡度地带,使之在强震作用下容易发生崩塌、滑坡。     

鄂西清江流域滑坡崩塌致灾背景及成灾模式

鄂西清江流域是我国滑坡崩塌地质灾害易发区。在该区域11个县市地质灾害详细调查成果基础上,运用归纳和类比等方法,对区内2 276个滑坡和567个崩塌(危岩)的要素数据进行统计分析;归纳总结了区域滑坡崩塌的基本发育特征和分布规律,并从构造作用、岩性组合、河流地貌演化、人类活动、降雨等几个方面,分析多种致灾背景对滑坡崩塌的不同影响和控制作用;继而根据主控因素归纳分析了区内滑坡具有的降雨型、箱形(紧窄)背斜型、宽缓向斜型和水库型等4类主要成灾模式,以及崩塌(危岩)具有的宽缓向斜型和岩溶石柱型两类主要成灾模式;指出了今后需要重点防控的三种类型滑坡崩塌风险。     

典型滑坡监测点优化布置

利用数值模拟技术与模糊模式识别算法提出了滑坡监测点优化布置的基本方法。以链子崖危岩体为例,以Ⅳ-Ⅳ′剖面作为滑坡监测点优化布置的典型剖面,根据监测变量（位移）对外界干扰因素作用下的灵敏度大小与监测信息量获取大小之间的关系,对该危岩体的监测变量（位移）进行了灵敏度分区研究,进而对该典型剖面的监测点进行了优化设计。研究结果表明,链子崖危岩体地表位移监测点宜布置在位移量明显和状态变化灵敏度较高的部位,深部位移监测钻孔宜穿越所有水平位移变化的灵敏区域。     

煤矿矿震定位中异向波速模型的构建与求解

针对煤矿上覆岩层层状赋存和离层带的特点,构建矿井尺度的微震监测系统异向波速模型,模型中波速向量由地面探头速度与井下探头速度组成.研究了在只有强矿震信号和混有爆破信号两种条件下,以到时残差最小为目标和震源定位误差最小为目标的两种求解模型,模型求解选用具有全局寻优特性的遗传算法与CMEAS算法结合的混合算法.现场实际应用得出,只使用爆破信号的到时残差法最优,混有强矿震信号的到时残差法其次;与爆破信号定位所用的统一简化波速模型相比,震源定位误差大幅度降低.在此基础上进一步减低定位误差,还需从微震台网的优化布设方面解决.     

Erosional power in the Swiss Alps: characterization of slope failure in the Illgraben

Landslides and rockfalls are key geomorphic processes in mountain basins. Their quantification and characterization are critical for understanding the processes of slope failure and their contributions to erosion and landscape evolution. We used digital photogrammetry to produce a multi‐temporal record of erosion (1963–2005) of a rock slope at the head of the Illgraben, a very active catchment prone to debris flows in Switzerland. Slope failures affect 70% of the study slope and erode the slope at an average rate of 0.39 ± 0.03 m yr¯¹. The analysis of individual slope failures yielded an inventory of ~2500 failures ranging over 6 orders of magnitude in volume, despite the small slope area and short study period. The slope failures form a characteristic magnitude–frequency distribution with a rollover and a power‐law tail between ~200 m³ and 1.6 × 10⁶ m³ with an exponent of 1.65. Slope failure volume scales with area as a power law with an exponent of 1.1. Both values are low for studies of bedrock landslides and rockfall and result from the highly fractured and weathered state of the quartzitic bedrock. Our data suggest that the magnitude–frequency distribution is the result of two separate slope failure processes. Type (1) failures are frequent, small slides and slumps within the weathered layer of highly fractured rock and loose sediment, and make up the rollover. Type (2) failures are less frequent and larger rockslides and rockfalls within the internal bedded and fractured slope along pre‐determined potential failure surfaces, and make up the power‐law tail. Rockslides and rockfalls of high magnitude and relatively low frequency make up 99% of the total failure volume and are thus responsible for the high erosion rate. They are also significant in the context of landscape evolution as they occur on slopes above 45° and limit the relief of the slope. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于加卸载响应比理论的降雨型滑坡预警研究

在建立边坡远程实时监测系统并获得变形与降雨量连续监测数据的基础上,运用加卸载响应比理论的基本原理,提出以一用为加卸载周期、将日降雨量及其变化作为边坡的加卸载参数、相应的日平均变形速率及其变化值为加卸载响应参数,建立了基于加卸栽响应比的降雨型滑坡短周期预警模型。以某公路边坡为例,运用加卸载响应比预测模型对边坡的2个监测点进行了加卸载响应比计算,发现2个点的加卸载响应比时序曲线与其稳定性动态演化规律相吻合。研究结果表明,可以运用该模型进行降雨型滑坡短周期预测预警。