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71.
Correlation-coefficient fields are widely used in short-term climate prediction research. The most frequently used significance test method for the correlation-coefficient field was proposed by Livezey, in which the number of significantcorrelation lattice(station) points on the correlation coherence map is used as the statistic. However, the method is based on two assumptions:(1) the spatial distribution of the lattice(station) points is uniform;and(2) there is no correlation between the physical quantities in the correlation-coefficient field. However, in reality, the above two assumptions are not valid.Therefore, we designed a more reasonable method for significance testing of the correlation-coefficient field. Specifically, a new statistic, the significant-correlation area, is introduced to eliminate the inhomogeneity of the grid(station)-point distribution, and an empirical Monte Carlo method is employed to eliminate the spatial correlation of the matrix.Subsequently, the new significance test was used for simultaneous correlation-coefficient fields between intensities of the atmospheric activity center in the Northern Hemisphere and temperature/precipitation in China. The results show that the new method is more reasonable than the Livezey method. 相似文献
72.
In rainfall–runoff studies, it is often necessary to change the duration of a given unit hydrograph. Nash's Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (IUH) is an ideal method that eliminates the hydrograph duration. This paper presents the results of the application of search algorithms, namely a genetic algorithm and hill climbing, to develop the IUH that minimizes the error between the observed and generated hydrographs. Also the performance of these methods has been compared with that of the classical method used for estimation of IUH, namely the method of moments. The genetic algorithm is a popular search procedure for function optimization that applies the mechanics of natural genetics and natural selection to explore a given search space. Hill climbing is an optimization technique that belongs to the family of local search and algorithms can be used to solve problems that have many solutions, with some solutions better than others. The results obtained from both the genetic algorithm and hill climbing algorithm for estimation of Nash's IUH parameters were compared with the results obtained by the method of moments for storms from two river basins that are located in different climatic regions. It was found that both the genetic algorithm and hill climbing provided improved and consistent results. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
73.
Large floods are often attributed to the melting of snow during a rain event. This study tested how climate variability, snowpack presence, and basin physiography were related to storm hydrograph shape in three small (<1 km2) basins with old‐growth forest in western Oregon. Relationships between hydrograph characteristics and precipitation were tested for approximately 800 storms over a nearly 30‐year period. Analyses controlled for (1) snowpack presence/absence, (2) antecedent soil moisture, and (3) hillslope length and gradient. For small storms (<150 mm precipitation), controlling for precipitation, the presence of a snowpack on near‐saturated soil increased the threshold of precipitation before hydrograph rise, extended the start lag, centroid lag, and duration of storm hydrographs, and increased the peak discharge. The presence of a snowpack on near‐saturated soil sped up and steepened storm hydrographs in a basin with short steep slopes, but delayed storm hydrographs in basins with longer or more gentle slopes. Hydrographs of the largest events, which were extreme regional rain and rain‐on‐snow floods, were not sensitive to landform characteristics or snowpack presence/absence. Although the presence of a snowpack did not increase peak discharge in small, forested basins during large storms, it had contrasting effects on storm timing in small basins, potentially synchronizing small basin contributions to the larger basin hydrograph during large rain‐on‐snow events. By altering the relative timing of hydrographs, snowpack melting could produce extreme floods from precipitation events whose size is not extreme. Further work is needed to examine effects of canopy openings, snowpack, and climate warming on extreme rain‐on‐snow floods at the large basin scale. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
74.
75.
Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are one of the most effective ways to reduce earthquake disaster. Earthquake magnitude estimation is one of the most important and also the most difficult parts of the entire EEW system. In this paper, based on 142 earthquake events and 253 seismic records that were recorded by the KiK-net in Japan, and aftershocks of the large Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan, we obtained earthquake magnitude estimation relationships using the τe and Pa methods. The standard variances of magnitude calculation of these two formulas are ±0.65 and ±0.56, respectively. The Pd value can also be used to estimate the peak ground motion of velocity, then warning information can be released to the public rapidly, according to the estimation results. In order to insure the stability and reliability of magnitude estimation results, we propose a compatibility test according to the natures of these two parameters. The reliability of the early warning information is significantly improved though this test. 相似文献
76.
Numerical simulation of oil migration and accumulation is to describe the history of oil migration and accumulation in basin
evolution. It is of great value to the evaluation of oil resources and to the determination of the location and amount of
oil deposits. This thesis discusses the characteristics of petroleum geology and permeation fluid mechanics. For the three-dimensional
problems of Dongying hollow of Shengli Petroleum Oil Field, it puts forward a new model and a kind of modified method of upwind
finite difference fractional steps implicit interactive scheme. For the famous hydraulic experiment of secondary migration–accumulation,
the numerical simulation test has been done, and both the computational and experimental results are basically identical.
For the actual problem of Dongying hollow, the numerical simulation test and the actual conditions are basically coincident.
Thus, the well-known problem has been solved. 相似文献
77.
78.
对h型自适应自然单元法的自适应细化方案进行了初步研究。在ZZ误差分析的基础上实现了节点的自动加密,使得随着自适应细化的进行,求解误差减小,而且误差分布趋于均匀。在数值分析中,主要有两种误差来源--插值误差和积分误差。随着节点的加密,Delaunay三角形的尺寸随之减小,三角形内的应力场趋于线性分布,那么插值误差和积分误差也都会随之减小。因而,h型自适应分析可以同时减小上述两种误差而达到不断提高求解精度的目的。由于自然单元法求解依赖于求解域内离散节点的Voronoi结构,建议的细化方案中新节点的引入只需局部调整Delaunay结构,算法的实现极为容易,程序实现简单、高效。研究表明,建议的自适应方案是可行的,自然单元法特别适合进行h型自适应分析。 相似文献
79.
沙漠风积沙地基输电线路杆塔基础设计是当前我国电网建设中的关键研究课题之一。沙漠风积沙属于特殊土地基,这种地基上的输电线路装配式基础缺少相关设计依据。针对沙漠风积沙地基输电线路基础工程的特点,进行了输电线路装配式基础的真型试验,得到了上拔与水平荷载、下压与水平荷载联合作用下的承载变形特性、基础构件的应变特性、基础底板与风积沙地基之间的接触压力变化规律。根据测试结果,确定了沙漠地区风积沙地基装配式基础的地基承载力和上拔角取值,得到了基础稳定的最不利工况,有助于提高基础设计的可靠性和合理性。试验结果为沙漠地区台远-塔中220 kV输电线路基础工程的设计提供了依据。 相似文献
80.