西南地区前兆震群以及显著地震与区域强震的时空特征

本文系统清理并分析了西南划分的五个预报区[1]中的强震发生前的前兆震群和显著性地震特征。在西南划分的五个预报区中,各区域的前兆震群和显著地震存在共性特征,但又具有明显的区域个性。从共性特征上看,西南划分的五个预报区的前兆震群和显著性地震发生后1-2年可能发生强震,强震一般发生在前兆震群或显著性地震附近地区或相关联构造带上;川滇往往是块体内部构造较复杂的区域,发生的强震会有前兆震群或显著性地震发生。从个性特征上看,西南划分的五个预报区的前兆震群和显著性地震发生与西南地区的地震地质构造具有一定关系,也就是说特殊的构造使得各区域的前兆震群和显著性地震具有明显的个性特征。     

Helium and argon isotopes of the Tertiary basic igneous rocks from Shandong Peninsula and implications for the magma origin

Helium (He) and Argon (Ar) isotopic compositions of the Tertiary basic igneous rocks were determined by the high temperature melting extraction method. The selected samples for the studies included al-kaline basalts and diabases from the Jiyang basin,and the surrounding Shanwang and Qixia outcrops in the Shandong Peninsula,eastern China. The results show that the Paleogene basalts and diabases from the Jiyang basin yielded a wide range of P4 PHe abundance of (73.70-804.16)×10 P-8 Pcm P3 P STP·g P-1 P,with P3 PHe/ P4 PHe ratios of 0.374-2.959 Ra,which was lower than the MORB but evidently higher than the con-tinental crust value. The Neogene alkaline basalts from the Jiyang basin,Shanwang and Qixia outcrops have variable P4 PHe abundances ((42.34-286.72)×10-8 Pcm P3 P STP·g-1 P),and "continental crust-like" P3 PHe/ P4 PHe ratios (0.013-0.074 Ra). All of them contain atmospheric-like P40 PAr/ P36 PAr ratio (395.4-1312.7),reflecting the mantle sources with air components. Their low P3 PHe/ P4 PHe ratios are interpreted as the enrichment of the radiogenic P4 PHe mainly inherited from the mantle. He and Ar systematics show the mixing of MORB-type,air and a P4 PHe enriched member in the mantle source,suggesting that these igneous rocks originated from the depleted asthenospheric mantle mixed with an EMI component. Therefore,the present He and Ar isotopes do not support the viewpoints that the Cenozoic igneous rocks of Eastern North China were the products of mantle plume(s) activities.     

长岛震群震源谱参数反演和震源参数特征

采用高频截止(High-Cut)震源模型,以均方根误差最小原则稳健地求解震源谱参数,并由此推算震源尺度和静态应力降。实际应用显示,该模型的理论谱对观测谱有很好的拟合,可明显改善拐角频率识别准确度。计算了长岛震群内71次M_L≥2.5地震事件的震源参数,结果表明：(1)拐角频率处于2～10 Hz范围,与震级大小存在一定的相关性,截止频率范围处于10～30 Hz之间,与地震大小的相关性不明显;(2)地震矩M₀分布在10¹²～10¹⁴ N·m,与震级M_L存在正相关关系：logM₀=0.977M_L+10.186;M_L与矩震级M_W之间的关系为：M_W=0.651M_L+0.766;(3)根据相对应力降时域演化发现,自2017年3月3日M_L4.5地震之后应力快速释放,应力降水平在均值附近波动,而且多数M_L≥3.5地震发生于...     

Characteristics and Implication of the Earthquake Swarm Occurred in Fuzhou in September 1999

on Septmeber 23,1999,an earthquake swarm occured in Fuzhou,Because the swarm occurred in the region where earthquaks occurred scarcely before and very close to the center of the city as well as shortly after the Jiji earthquake with Ms7.6 in Taiwan,September 21,1999,has aroused interest broadly.In this paper,we analyzed the characteristics of spatial and temporal distribution of the earthquake swarm and validated magnitude-number constituent of the swarm is special.In present theory,the earthquake swarm means that a small scale macro original rupture has formed in the layer of the crust in Fuzhou region where moderately strong earthquake risk exists.     

地震预报探讨中的地磁学手段

地磁手段地地震预测研究中的许多方面发挥了重要作用。在地震前兆的探讨方面占有一席之地；在探测地下构造中有许多贡献。我们可以开展许多与地震预测基础研究有关的地磁研究，例如地磁模型研究、地磁脉动研究、地球深部研究，等等。对地磁场变化规律性的研究也是提取地震地磁前兆的基础。     

喀什"奇异震群"与构造地震的对比研究

20 0 1年 11月 14、 15日新疆喀什台记录到 86次振动事件 (“奇异震群”事件 )。为识别其性质 ,应用波谱分析、偏振分析等方法 ,对该事件和同范围构造地震的地震波特征进行了对比研究 ,发现 :(1)喀什“震群”的全波列衰减比构造地震的全波列衰减快很多 ;(2 )与构造地震的速度谱相比 ,“震群”的频谱相对较为“集中”,而构造地震的则较为“发散”;(3)“震群”位移谱的拐角频率和卓越频率均较构造地震的相应量高出一倍多 ,且离散较小。通过对喀什“奇异震群”这些特征进行分析研究 ,认为这一事件极有可能是人工事件     

对张北6.2级地震预测的回顾和再研究

对张北6.2级地震在测震学前兆图像、预测回顾及总结的基础上,对部分反映较好的测震学预测指标进行了比较系统的预报效能检验和评估,进一步确定和筛选出部分测震学预测方法的最佳三要素预测指标,为各预测指标的三要素界定和预测效能提供了定量的参考依据。 对各种预报方法进行比较系统和客观的预报效能检验和评估,确定和筛选预测方法的最佳三要素预测指标,这不仅是地震预测预报逐步向科学、客观、严谨和实用化方向迈进的重要途径,而且是探索以震源物理为基础和孕震阶段为依据的多学科异常有机结合的综合概率预测的必要前题。     

Dike intrusion associated with the 2000 eruption of Miyakejima Volcano, Japan

The model for the 2000 dike intrusion event between Kozushima and Miyakejima volcano, Japan, was reinvestigated. After the sudden earthquake swarm in Miyakejima volcano, a dike intrusion of large volume was detected by the nationwide GPS network (Geonet). The displacements detected with GPS stations over an area with a radius of about 200 km shows a distribution that is consistent with the dike source being located near Miyakejima volcano.The dike was intruded northwestwards between Miyakejima and the neighboring Kozushima volcano. We searched for the parameters in the models that reproduce the regional displacements due to dike intrusion between Miyakejima and Kozushiima islands. We tested three models, (1) the model with a single dike, (2) the model with a dike and a point dislocation source which represents a creep dislocation source and (3) the model with a dike and a deflation source which represents a magma reservoir. Though all three models can match the horizontal displacements near the source area, model 1 fails to reproduce the regional displacements in the central part of Japan. Both models 2 and 3 can reproduce the regional displacement for horizontal components. Model 3 produces slightly better results than model 2 for vertical components. The balance in the volume budget for models 2 and 3 is also consistent with the observations. These results show that we cannot distinguish between the two models using only GPS observation. As there is no direct evidence for such a large creep or ductile source (corresponds to M7 or more) as proposed in model 2 and the active seismic region migrated back and forth within the linear swarm region, the model with a dike and a deep magma source is preferable. For the deflation point source, we obtained a deflation volume of 1.5 km³ at the depth of 20 km below the dike. An additional ~0.95 km³ of volume loss through caldera collapse and edifice deflation took place at Miyakejima. We conclude that the magma that intruded the dike came in part from below Miyakejima and in part from below the sea floor between Miyakejima and Kozushima, perhaps from reservoirs at the Moho.Editorial responsibility: S Nakada, T Druitt     

Earthquake swarms preceding the 2000 eruption of Miyakejima volcano, Japan

The first sign of magma accumulating beneath Miyakejima, an island volcano in the northern Izu islands, Japan, came at around 18:00 on 26 June 2000, when a swarm of earthquakes was detected by a volcano seismic network on the island. Earthquakes occurred initially beneath the southwest flank near the summit and gradually migrated west of the island, where a submarine eruption occurred the next morning. Earthquakes then migrated further to the northwest between Miyakejima and Kozushima, another volcanic island and developed to the most intense earthquake swarm ever observed in and around Japanese archipelago. To better image how the initial magma intrusion occurred, we relocated hypocenters by using a station-correction method and a double-difference method. The relocated epicenters are generally concentrated near the upper bound of dyke intrusions inferred from geodetic studies throughout the initial stages of the 2000 eruption at Miyakejima from 26 to 27 June 2000. As for seismic activity westward off Miyakejima in the morning on 27 June, hypocenters from both a nationwide seismic network that were relocated by the double-difference method, and those from the volcano seismic network relocated by the station-correction method, formed a very shallow cluster that ascended slowly with time as it propagated northwestward from Miyakejima. This suggests that the dykes have both a radial and upward component of movement.Editorial responsibility: S. Nakada, T. Druitt     

Numerical model of convection in sills

The numerical model of convection in magma sills is developed. The model is based on a full system of equations of fluid dynamics and includes heat transfer, buoyancy effects and diffusion of some minor component (marker). Solidification is treated as a phase transition. The results indicate that there are some qualitative differences between very thin sills with Rayleigh number Ra = 10⁵ and thin sills with Ra = 10⁶. For a basaltic magma the first case corresponds to the thickness of the sills of approximately 30 cm and the second case corresponds to the thickness of 60 cm. In the first case mixing is inefficient and conduction is the dominant form of heat transfer. In the second case mixing is efficient and convection is the dominant form of heat transfer. Some of the results can be scaled for the more viscous magmas in thicker sills.