An empirical model of event scale cohesive bank profile evolution

The highly stochastic nature of riverbank erosion has driven the need for spatially explicit empirical models. Detailed bank profile surveys along a meander bend of the Brandywine Creek in Pennsylvania, USA, before and after 28 high flow events over a 2·5 year period are used to develop an empirical model of cohesive bank profile erosion. Two hundred and thirty‐six bank erosion observations are classified as hydraulic erosion or subaerial erosion. Threshold conditions required to initiate bank erosion cannot be defined based on field measurements. Using the near‐bank velocity and the number of freeze–thaw cycles as predictors, regression equations are derived for hydraulic erosion that specify the length, thickness, and location on the bank face of eroded blocks. An empirical discriminant function defines the critical geometry of overhang failures, and the volumes removed by overhang failures are computed using another regression equation. All the regression equations are significant, but have low correlation coefficients, suggesting that cohesive bank erosion has a strong stochastic component. Individual events typically remove small masses of soil (average volume 0·084 m³/m) a few centimeters thick (median = 0·057 m) and a few decimeters in length (median = 0·50 m) from the lower third of the bank. Hydraulic erosion is responsible for 87% of all erosion. When applied to three survey sites not used in its development, the profile model predicts the total volume of erosion with errors of 23%, 5% and 1%. Twenty‐four percent of computed erosion volumes for single events are within 50% of observed volumes at these three sites. Extending the approach to decadal timescales and to entire bends will require three‐dimensional observations of bank failure, and spatially and temporally explicit methods to account for the influence of individual large trees on bank failures and near‐bank hydraulic processes. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Enhanced application of root‐reinforcement algorithms for bank‐stability modeling

Riparian vegetation is known to exert a number of mechanical and hydrologic controls on bank stability. In particular, plant roots provide mechanical reinforcement to a soil matrix due to the different responses of soils and roots to stress. Root reinforcement is largely a function of the strength of the roots crossing potential shear planes, and the number and diameter of such roots. However, previous bank stability models have been constrained by limited field data pertaining to the spatial and temporal variability of root networks within stream banks. In this paper, a method is developed to use root‐architecture data to derive parameters required for modeling temporal and spatial changes in root reinforcement. Changes in root numbers over time were assumed to follow a sigmoidal curve, which commonly represents the growth rates of organisms. Regressions for numbers of roots crossing potential shear planes over time showed small variations between species during the juvenile growth phase, but extrapolation led to large variations in root numbers by the time the senescent phase of the sigmoidal growth curve had been reached. In light of potential variability in the field data, the mean number of roots crossing a potential shear plane at each year of tree growth was also calculated using data from all species and an additional sigmoidal regression was run. After 30 years the mean number of roots predicted to cross a 1 m shear plane was 484, compared with species‐specific curves whose values ranged from 240 roots for black willow trees to 890 roots for western cottonwood trees. In addition, the effect of spatial variations in rooting density with depth on stream‐bank stability was modeled using the bank stability and toe erosion model (BSTEM). Three root distributions, all approximating the same average root reinforcement (5 kPa) over the top 1 m of the bank profile, were modeled, but with differing vertical distributions (concentrated near surface, non‐linear decline with depth, uniform over top meter). It was found that stream‐bank F_S varied the most when the proportion of the failure plane length to the depth of the rooting zone was greatest. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An easily implemented agro-hydrological procedure with dynamic root simulation for water transfer in the crop–soil system: Validation and application

Models for water transfer in the crop–soil system are key components of agro-hydrological models for irrigation, fertilizer and pesticide practices. Many of the hydrological models for water transfer in the crop–soil system are either too approximate due to oversimplified algorithms or employ complex numerical schemes. In this paper we developed a simple and sufficiently accurate algorithm which can be easily adopted in agro-hydrological models for the simulation of water dynamics. We used a dual crop coefficient approach proposed by the FAO for estimating potential evaporation and transpiration, and a dynamic model for calculating relative root length distribution on a daily basis. In a small time step of 0.001 d, we implemented algorithms separately for actual evaporation, root water uptake and soil water content redistribution by decoupling these processes. The Richards equation describing soil water movement was solved using an integration strategy over the soil layers instead of complex numerical schemes. This drastically simplified the procedures of modeling soil water and led to much shorter computer codes. The validity of the proposed model was tested against data from field experiments on two contrasting soils cropped with wheat. Good agreement was achieved between measurement and simulation of soil water content in various depths collected at intervals during crop growth. This indicates that the model is satisfactory in simulating water transfer in the crop–soil system, and therefore can reliably be adopted in agro-hydrological models. Finally we demonstrated how the developed model could be used to study the effect of changes in the environment such as lowering the groundwater table caused by the construction of a motorway on crop transpiration.     

利用流固耦合模型模拟地震和海啸全过程

海底地震引起的海啸过程在力学上是一个流固耦合问题。地震引起的海底变形会影响流体的运动,流体运动会影响地震引起的海底变形。海啸的数值模拟,通常采用浅水波控制方程,把地震引起的海底变形作为海啸波动的边界条件或初始条件,不考虑它们之间的相互作用。本文采用势流体的流固耦合有限元方法模拟了地震和海啸的全过程。地震过程的模拟与地震位错模型不同,在位错模型中,断层的位错是事先指定的;而在本文中,首先形成自重作用下的初始应力场,然后通过断层材料的突然软化引起的错动,模拟地震震源的动力学过程。模拟结果显示,在海面除了可以看到大振幅的海啸波外,还可以发现体波震相和面波震相。在600 km的海面震中距上,它们要比海啸波早到48分钟,在此处面波的最大平均振幅可达0.55 m,是相同震中距海底面波最大平均振幅的2倍。因此,海啸预警信息在海面可以比在地表更早地得到。海啸波的传播速度在水深3 km的开阔海面是175.8 m/s,它要比理想长波理论预测的大,其平均振幅为2 m,波长可达32 km. 到达大陆架后其速度、波长都减小,在岸边可以激起10 m高的巨浪,水平方向深入陆地达53 m。震中附近海面和地震断层上的最大垂直加速度分别为5.9 m/s2和16.3 m/s2,后者是前者的2.8倍。由此看来,海水是很好的减震器。海啸波的加速度到达岸边会衰减10倍。与加速度不同,海面震中处的振动速度为3.2 m/s, 是海底震源处的1.4倍。震源处的最大位移小于震中海面的最大位移, 其差就是海啸波源的振幅。值得注意的是,海底地震的最大位错在震后23 s达到,不是发生在断层滑动的开始。      

Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) using adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling

In the last few decades hydrologists have made tremendous progress in using dynamic simulation models for the analysis and understanding of hydrologic systems. However, predictions with these models are often deterministic and as such they focus on the most probable forecast, without an explicit estimate of the associated uncertainty. This uncertainty arises from incomplete process representation, uncertainty in initial conditions, input, output and parameter error. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework was one of the first attempts to represent prediction uncertainty within the context of Monte Carlo (MC) analysis coupled with Bayesian estimation and propagation of uncertainty. Because of its flexibility, ease of implementation and its suitability for parallel implementation on distributed computer systems, the GLUE method has been used in a wide variety of applications. However, the MC based sampling strategy of the prior parameter space typically utilized in GLUE is not particularly efficient in finding behavioral simulations. This becomes especially problematic for high-dimensional parameter estimation problems, and in the case of complex simulation models that require significant computational time to run and produce the desired output. In this paper we improve the computational efficiency of GLUE by sampling the prior parameter space using an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme (the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM-UA) algorithm). Moreover, we propose an alternative strategy to determine the value of the cutoff threshold based on the appropriate coverage of the resulting uncertainty bounds. We demonstrate the superiority of this revised GLUE method with three different conceptual watershed models of increasing complexity, using both synthetic and real-world streamflow data from two catchments with different hydrologic regimes.     

Estimation of hysteretic energy demand using concepts of modal pushover analysis

Hysteretic energy dissipation in a structure during an earthquake is the key factor, besides maximum displacement, related to the amount of damage in it. This energy demand can be accurately computed only through a nonlinear time‐history analysis of the structure subjected to a specific earthquake ground acceleration. However, for multi‐story structures, which are usually modeled as multi‐degree of freedom (MDOF) systems, this analysis becomes computation intensive and time consuming and is not suitable for adopting in seismic design guidelines. An alternative method of estimating hysteretic energy demand on MDOF systems is presented here. The proposed method uses multiple ‘generalized’ or ‘equivalent’ single degree of freedom (ESDOF) systems to estimate hysteretic energy demand on an MDOF system within the context of a ‘modal pushover analysis’. This is a modified version of a previous procedure using a single ESDOF system. Efficiency of the proposed procedure is tested by comparing energy demands based on this method with results from nonlinear dynamic analyses of MDOF systems, as well as estimates based on the previous method, for several ground motion scenarios. Three steel moment frame structures, of 3‐, 9‐, and 20‐story configurations, are selected for this comparison. Bias statistics that show the effectiveness of the proposed method are presented. In addition to being less demanding on the computation time and complexity, the proposed method is also suitable for adopting in design guidelines, as it can use response spectra for hysteretic energy demand estimation. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

东北地震区地震活动趋势数学建模分析

本文按照活动地块边界带和地震区的划分方案,使用Mapsis软件选取了东北地震区1900年以来Ms4.7级以上地震资料,这样得到的地震资料可能具有一个完整的地质系统性。使用数学中19阶多项式模型,对地震资料进行最佳逼近拟合,并递推未来1～2年时间尺度预测,模型中的参数用最小二乘法求取,引用了一种数学方法来描述东北地震区的地震趋势规律。     

超大断面低扁平率公路隧洞先成预应力结构新型支护体系数值模拟

为适应日益增长的经济和交通发展需求,修建以4车道公路隧道为代表的超大断面低扁平率公路隧洞的需求初露端倪,这类隧道的低扁平率特征使传统的隧道支护体系面临许多困难,急待开发新型的隧洞支护体系。采用FLAC数值模拟平台研究了基于隧洞“先成结构法”支护理念的“先成预应力结构”新型支护体系在提高超大断面低扁平率公路隧洞洞室稳定性方面的效果,为“先成结构法”支护理念在超大断面低扁平率公路隧洞中的应用实施提供了有力的支持。     

岩爆破坏过程能量释放的数值模拟

岩爆是地下岩石开挖中的一种工程灾害现象,是岩体结构发生破坏时,由于内部储存的弹性能释放并转换为动能而造成动力形式的破坏。岩爆破坏过程中的能量释放与岩体在应力峰值前后的应力-应变特性紧密相关。另外,施工中开挖速度引起的加载速率的变化也会对岩爆的产生有明显影响。以岩体全过程应力-应变曲线试验为基础分析岩爆破坏过程。分析中采用的模型考虑了岩石峰值后应力-应变特性及加载速率的影响。运用数值方法对岩石洞室的开挖过程进行了模拟,在模拟中对岩体破坏的发生及弹性能释放过程进行了分析。数值分析结果显示,岩体洞室开挖过程中岩石破坏由岩体表面向岩体内部发展,岩石的弹性能释放率也随着破坏的发展而不断增加。分析结果还显示,岩体破坏时的弹性能释放速率会随着开挖速率的提高而明显增加。     

面向三维地质建模的领域本体逻辑结构与构建方法

结合三维地质建模的应用,分析面向三维地质建模的领域本体的组成和层次结构.结合地质语义的特点,提出突出概念间关系的五元组逻辑结构和基于迭代思想的构建方法.该逻辑结构由概念、概念间语义关系、概念间层次关系、属性和实例组成.基于迭代思想的构建方法分为需求分析、领域共享词语的字典库构建、本体表示、本体集成和本体评估等步骤.以OWL语言描述工具,结合正断层本体实例探讨了面向三维地质建模领域本体逻辑结构的描述和构建方法.