时变参数灰色模型背景值重构及实现

针对时变参数灰色模型PGM(1,1)的背景值重构收敛速度及稳定性问题,该文运用积分的方法综合序列在Δt内不同变化趋势,导出背景值模型的准确表达式。实现了反映序列对新老信息偏爱程度的最优权值介于(0,1)内,且非不能越过某一阈值;给出了背景值重构模型最优解准确求取的具体算法步骤。基于MATLAB语言的实验结果表明:改进模型预测精度高,易于实现;所研究的带权灰色模型GM(1,n)背景值模型的重构及计算方法验证了PGM(1,1)模型重构及计算实现方法的有效性和实用性。     

Study of Influence of Regional Geodynamic Background on Strata Behaviors in China's Tongxin Mine

Strata behaviors are mainly affected by regional geodynamic background. The influence of rock mass stress and energy distribution on strata behaviors in the Tongxin mine is studied in terms of regional tectonic movement, seismic activity and tectonic stress field. The results show that the extrusion lifting movement of Kouquan fault adjacent to the Tongxin mine results in the stress concentration in the rock of the Carboniferous coal bed and accumulation of a large amount of elastic energy and forms structural background of Tongxin mine. Due to various seismic activities in the mine area, the strain energy is known to reach much higher levels, up to 0.5×10⁸ J^1/2. Since the stratigraphic structure is sensitive to the mining operation, the strain energy could cause strong strata behaviors. A special geological structure model of the Tongxin mine is established based on the geodynamic division method. The distribution of regional structure stress field is determined by the rock mass stress analysis system. Based on this model, Tongxin mine is divided into five areas with high stress, eight areas with low stress and eight areas with gradient stress. The strong strata behaviors mostly occur in high stress areas. These results could provide guidance to predict the strength of regional or mine pressure and control strata behavior in different areas.     

地质背景对土壤微量元素的影响——以渝北地区为例

研究地质背景对土壤元素的控制特征,可为区域土壤元素地球化学研究、种植施肥和农业布局提供科学依据。本研究利用网格化定位与化学分析的方法,结合GIS技术和相关评价标准,探讨了地质背景对Cl、Mn、B、Zn、Cu和Mo元素含量及分布的影响。结果表明:渝北地区土壤Mn、Cu、Zn元素含量整体处于适中与丰富水平,Mo、B元素丰缺参半;B、Mo元素含量显著高于重庆主城区,Zn元素含量显著高于全国水平。受地质背景影响,B、Cl、Cu、Mn元素呈现高度空间相关性,结构性空间变异起主导作用;Mo、Zn元素表现中等空间相关性,由结构性因素和随机因素双重控制。地层的组对元素含量分布起主控作用,土壤元素含量分布形状在空间上与地层组相对应。成土母岩决定土壤元素含量,是土壤元素含量水平的重要控制因素之一,其影响因素主要为岩石类型,其次为岩石形成的地质时期。土壤类型显著影响元素含量,总体上,Mn、Cu、Zn、Mo、B在石灰岩土中含量最高;除B、Mo元素外,其他元素在黄壤中含量最低。     

A Preliminary Study on the Soft–Sediment Deformation Structures in the Late Quaternary Lacustrine Sediments at Tashkorgan, Northeastern Pamir, China

This study identified soft–sediment deformation structures(SSDS) of seismic origin from lacustrine sediments in the late Quaternary paleo–dammed lake at Tashkorgan, northeastern Pamir. The observed deformation structures include sand dykes, liquefied diapir and convolute structures, gravity induced SSDS, and thixotropic pillar and tabular structures. We conducted a preliminary study on the morphology, formation and trigger mechanisms of pillar and tabular structures formed by liquefaction of underlying coarse sand and thixotropy of the upper silty clay. The regional tectonic setting and distribution of lacustrine strata indicate that the most probable trigger for the SSDS in lacustrine sediments was seismic activity, with an approximate earthquake magnitude of M6.0; the potential seismogenic fault is the southern part of the Kongur normal fault extensional system. AMS 14 C dating results indicate that the SSDS were formed by seismic events occurring between 26050±100 yr BP and 22710±80 yr BP, implying intense fault activity in this region during the late Pleistocene. This study provides new evidence for understanding tectonic activity and regional geodynamics in western China.     

西藏“一江三河”地区地下水环境背景值初步研究

在分析对比国内外研究方法的基础上,选择数理统计方法,通过最广泛的数理统计法的应用原则、数据检验、背景值取值等问题的论述,对西藏"一江三河"地区地下水水质指标TDS,Ca²+,Mg²⁺,Na⁺环境背景值进行研究,并初步探讨了它们的空间分布规律及控制因素.结果表明,地形地貌、区域水动力条件等因素对研究区地下水指标的空间分布起主要控制作用.该结果为评价西藏"一江三河"地区地下水污染状况提供科学的依据.     

Development of medium-term prediction methods: A case study of the August 14, 2016 Onor (Mw = 5.8) earthquake on Sakhalin

The potential of the load-unload response ratio (LURR) method for medium-term earthquake prediction is studied for Sakhalin Island as an example. An approach to the generation of predicted conditions and assessment of their implementation in real time is considered. The results of a retrospective analysis of other large Sakhalin earthquakes are used for generalization. It is shown that deviations of prediction parameters from specified values are satisfactory for this method. It is recommended that this method be used to compile summaries of medium-term predictions for Sakhalin provided that catalogs are filled as soon as possible.     

Seismicity and fault aseismic deformation caused by fluid injection in decametric in-situ experiments

Seismicity induced by fluid perturbations became an important societal concern since felt earthquakes (M_w up to 6) occurred after anthropogenic activities. In order to mitigate the risks associated with undesired seismicity, as well as to be able to use the micro-seismicity as a probe for in-depth investigation of fluid-driven processes, it is of crucial importance to understand the links between seismicity, fluid pressure and flow. We have developed a series of in-situ, decameter-scale experiments of fault zone reactivation by controlled fluid injection, in order to improve the near-source geophysical and hydromechanical observations. The deployed geophysical monitoring close to the injection allows one to cover the full frequency range of the fault responses from the static deformation to the very high-frequency seismic emissions (up to 4 kHz). Here, we focus on the microseismicity (M_w ∼ –4 to –3) recorded during two fluid injection experiments in low-permeable shale and highly-fractured limestone formations. In both experiments, the spatio-temporal distribution of the seismic events, the energy balance, and the seismic velocity changes of the fractured medium show that most of the deformation does not actually emit seismic signals. The induced deformation is mainly aseismic. Based on these high-resolution multiparametric observations in the near-field, we therefore proposed a new model for injection-induced seismicity: the seismicity is not directly induced by the increasing fluid pressure, but it is rather triggered by the stress perturbations transferred from the aseismic motion caused by the injection.     

河北省张家口崇礼区北部地球化学特征及其找矿指示

地球化学测量成果被广泛而成熟地运用在矿产勘查工作中,为明确张家口崇礼区北部成矿、找矿的地球化学指示信息,对该区水系沉积物测量及异常查证成果进行了综合分析。通过计算元素富集系数和变异系数、开展R型聚类分析、统计化探异常区岩石的地质年代、对比该区化探异常及已知矿床与典型矿床的成矿要素,从而推断了该区找矿主攻元素为Ag、Pb、Zn、Mo、Cd,且Ag、Pb、Zn和Mo、W 2组元素分别具有共伴生关系,指出该区化探异常主要受燕山期岩浆热液控制。综合分析认为,本区找矿模型为蔡家营式次火山-热液型多金属矿床,具有寻找次火山-热液型Ag、Pb、Zn、Mo多金属矿床的潜力。     

西秦岭温泉—中川一带金属矿床的成矿规律及找矿预测

西秦岭温泉—中川一带实施的1:5万矿产地质调查项目,共圈定1:5万局部高磁异常33处,1:5万地球化学综合异常11处,发现矿点2处,矿化点5处,矿种有金、钼、铁、铜、铷等。通过分析研究区成矿地质条件、1:5万地球物理和地球化学综合异常特征、矿(化)点特征及分布规律等,阐明了该区成矿时空分布规律和矿产共生组合规律,划分成矿远景区9处,提交找矿靶区6处。对其中2处找矿靶区进行槽探验证的结果为: 关子镇幅玉杨观找矿靶区圈定了4条含铷矿化伟晶岩脉和多处铁矿化破碎蚀变带,具有形成伟晶岩型铷矿的潜力; 礼县幅李坝金矿床南侧百叶沟—河西沟找矿靶区圈定了14条蚀变破碎带,在矿化蚀变带内圈定了11条金矿(化)体,具有形成构造蚀变岩(微细粒浸染状)型金矿床的潜力。     

福建霞浦大湾钼铍矿区碱长花岗岩LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb测年研究

福建霞浦大湾钼铍矿床产于火山岩区,但成矿作用可能与岩浆活动和裂隙构造关系密切。为查清矿区隐伏的钠长石化碱长花岗岩与钼铍矿成矿作用之间的关系,本文运用激光剥蚀电感耦合等离子体质谱法(LA-ICP-MS)对碱长花岗岩进行锆石U-Pb测年研究,获得年龄结果为93. 0±0. 6 Ma,与矿区的辉钼矿成矿年龄(92. 2±1. 3 Ma)一致,表明碱长花岗岩与钼铍矿成矿作用时空上具有密切的成因联系,岩浆活动可能为矿区钼铍矿的形成提供了成矿物质和成矿流体。结合区域上的成岩成矿年代学数据,本研究认为福建省燕山期岩浆活动时代与钼铍矿成矿时代都具有从西向东逐渐变新的时空分布规律,钼铍矿的成矿地质构造背景为燕山期华南岩石圈伸展环境。