Reliability assessment of granular filters in embankment dams

Empirical criteria have been used successfully to design filters of most embankment large dam projects throughout the world. However, these empirical rules are only applicable to a particular range of soils tested in laboratory and do not take into account the variability of the base material and filter particle sizes. In addition, it is widely accepted that the safety of fill dams is mainly dependent on the reliability of their filter performance. The work herein presented consists in a new general method for assessing the probability of fulfilling any empirical filter design criteria accounting for base and filter heterogeneity by means of first‐order reliability methods (FORM), so that reliability indexes and probabilities of fulfilling any particular criteria are obtained. This method will allow engineers to estimate the safety of existing filters in terms of probability of fulfilling their design criteria and might also be used as a decision tool on sampling needs and material size tolerances during construction. In addition, sensitivity analysis makes possible to analyse how reliabilities are influenced by different sources of input data. Finally, in case of a portfolio risk assessment, this method will allow engineers to compare the safety of several existing dams in order to prioritize safety investments and it is expected to be a very useful tool to evaluate probabilities of failure due to internal erosion. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Late Holocene great earthquakes and relative sea‐level change at Kenai,southern Alaska

Kenai, located on the west coast of the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, subsided during the great earthquake of AD 1964. Regional land subsidence is recorded within the estuarine stratigraphy as peat overlain by tidal silt and clay. Reconstructions using quantitative diatom transfer functions estimate co‐seismic subsidence (relative sea‐level rise) between 0.28±0.28 m and 0.70±0.28 m followed by rapid post‐seismic recovery. Stratigraphy records an earlier co‐seismic event as a second peat‐silt couplet, dated to ～1500–1400 cal. yr BP with 1.14±0.28 m subsidence. Two decimetre‐scale relative sea‐level rises are more likely the result of glacio‐isostatic responses to late Holocene and Little Ice Age glacier expansions rather than to co‐seismic subsidence during great earthquakes. Comparison with other sites around Cook Inlet, at Girdwood and Ocean View, helps in constructing regional patterns of land‐level change associated with three great earthquakes, AD 1964, ～950–850 cal. yr BP and ～1500–1400 cal. yr BP. Each earthquake has a different spatial pattern of co‐seismic subsidence which indicates that assessment of seismic hazard in southern Alaska requires an understanding of multiple great earthquakes, not only the most recent. All three earthquakes show a pre‐seismic phase of gradual land subsidence that marked the end of relative land uplift caused by inter‐seismic strain accumulation. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Subtidal sea level and current variations in the northern reach of San Francisco Bay

Analyses of sea level and current-meter data using digital filters and a variety of statistical methods show a variety of phenomena related to non-local coastal forcing and local tidal forcing in the northern reach of San Francisco Bay, a partially mixed estuary. Low-frequency variations in sea level are dominated by non-local variations in coastal sea level and also show a smaller influence from tidally induced fortnightly sea level variations. Low-frequency currents demonstrate a gravitational circulation which is modified by changes in tidal-current speed over the spring-neap tidal cycle. Transients in gravitational circulation induce internal oscillations with periods of two to four days.     

极端洪水导致的湖泊水位抬升和氮磷输入增加对苦草(Vallisneria natans)的复合影响

据全球气候变化模型预测,未来极端洪水事件将呈现增多和加剧态势。极端洪水对沉水植物功能性状、生长发育状况及整个生态系统均有深远的影响,研究极端洪水对沉水植物生长发育的影响对理解和预测气候变化过程中水生态系统的变化具有重要意义。本文针对极端洪水事件引起的水位急剧上升和营养负荷量增加双重效应,在实验周期90 d内设置对照(水位保持75 cm)、2种极端洪水条件(水位在第1天从75 cm快速上升至150 cm + NP输入、水位从75 cm逐步上升至150 cm + NP输入)以及水位保持75 cm + NP输入4项处理(后3项处理中营养输入总量相同),研究了极端洪水对沉水植物苦草(Vallisneria natans)生长、繁殖对策及生物量分配的影响,实验过程中还同步监测了浮游植物、附着藻类和水体营养状况(TN和TP)。在苦草的17个测定指标中,只有根生物量分配和有性繁殖分配在4个处理下无明显变化。从水位的单独作用看,相对于营养增加且水位恒定的处理,两种洪水条件(水位急剧上升和逐步上升)均降低了苦草的分株数、叶片数、间隔子数、间隔子总长、最大根长、花果数以及各器官生物量和总生物量,促进了人工基质表面附着藻类的生长。水位急剧上升时,植株对间隔子的生物量投资倾向于最小,而株高和植株对叶的生物量投资倾向于最大。从营养负荷的单独作用来看,相对于对照组,营养增加且水位恒定的处理中水体N浓度显著增加,促进浮游植物和苦草表面附着藻类的生长,但是从二者的Chl.a浓度来看,浮游植物遮光作用相对较大,抑制了苦草叶、根和间隔子的生长,但有性繁殖生物量无明显变化。从水位和营养负荷联合作用的模式来看,水位上升和营养负荷两个环境因素的联合作用会使入湖营养负荷加强水位上升对沉水植物生长的影响效应,二者的联合作用使叶、根、间隔子和有性繁殖生物量均大大降低。因此,极端洪水对沉水植物的不利影响较大,一方面水位抬升会直接影响沉水植物,另一方面会通过浮游植物间接影响沉水植物生长发育。     

Multidimensional statistical technique for detection of low contrast geochemical anomalies

In this article we propose an advanced technique for detecting low contrast geochemical anomalies using a set of features. There are three principal elements in this technique: (1) a statistical measure of the contrast of the anomaly, denoted as τ; (2) selection of a background population; and (3) reduction of the dimensionality of the feature space. In the frame of the model, which describes the statistical distribution of geochemical background as a multidimensional normal distribution of logarithms of concentrations, the index, τ, is a powerful test statistic for the hypothesis of abnormality of an observation. Maps of τ anomalies can be rigorously interpreted on the basis of statistical inferences. Under all equal conditions this technique allows the detection of geochemical anomalies with at least the same contrast (if the chemical elements in a background population are correlated, then even the better) as using selective extractions of metals from soil or other techniques for data processing. The advantages of the proposed technique are demonstrated both theoretically and on examples of rare-metal and copper–nickel mineral deposits.     

岷县漳县6.6级地震前区域地壳运动变形背景与断层形变异常特征

利用甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震区所在的青藏块体东北缘地区的区域水准、GPS、流动重力和跨断层短测线等地形变监测资料,结合地质构造、动力环境和已往的研究结果,分析了不同类型资料反映的震前区域性地壳变形背景、断层形变异常特征和可能的机理.结果认为：（1）岷县漳县6.6级地震前西秦岭、六盘山等构造区不同程度地存在着GPS水平挤压闭锁高应变积累、垂直隆升异常高梯度带和重力升、降差异剧烈变化等中长期背景;（2）震前到震时发震断裂附近及其外围相关构造区域断层形变异常在空间和时间上的起伏波动变化显著,尤其是汶川地震以来的波动变化在一定程度上反映了与本区构造比邻的龙门山断裂带剧烈右旋错动对本区的影响,与本次岷县6.6级地震过程有关;（3）本区有地形变监测资料积累以来缺乏6级以上震例,虽然存在不同程度的中长期形变背景异常,但何时进入短期-短临阶段确实很难把握,需要不断积累总结和探索提高.     

Unconsolidated sediment distribution patterns in the KwaZulu-Natal Bight,South Africa: the role of wave ravinement in separating relict versus active sediment populations

This paper examines the distribution of unconsolidated sediment in the KwaZulu-Natal Bight located along the east coast of South Africa. Results show that there is a general shelf-wide sediment distribution of coarser grain sizes between depths of 60 and 100?m, punctuated by a broad swathe of mud offshore of the Thukela River. Seasonal changes in sediment distribution patterns are small, being restricted to seaward fining on the inner shelf off the fluvial sources. Sediment distribution reflects a partitioning between sediment populations that are current- influenced and relict (palimpsest) populations associated with submerged shorelines. Wave ravinement during the deglacial transgression, the reworking of submerged shorelines during sea-level stillstands and, to a lesser extent, the Agulhas Current system, are the dominant controls on sediment distribution.     

Confidence Evaluation of Medium-and Long-Term Earthquake Prediction by Use of the Analytical Hierarchy Process

This paper offers an approach to the relative confidence level of medium- and long-term earthquake prediction methods by use of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). We construct the criterion judgment matrices according to the results of an expert questionnaire known as the Delphi scheme. From the matrices we can obtain a scale for the relative preference or priority weight of each factor. The quantitative weights might be applied to make synthetic prediction of earthquake risk areas in the northern part of the North China seismic region.     

两种震级标度讨论

分析论述了我国在测报近震震级和面波震级业务中存在的种种问题，用现行起算函数测算的ML随震中距存在系统偏差，近场偏低，远场偏高；此函数系统建立的方法有不合理之处，它不适于DD-1仪。用现行公式测算的MS与国际上震级水平不一致，总体趋势偏高；在90(距离上震级零点严重失控；用单一水平向记录计算MS是个原则性差误。需要用新的起算函数系统代替R1(()计算ML; 需要用新的公式取代现行公式计算MS。     

Upper Holocene sea-level changes: Paleogeographic evolution and its impact on coastal archaeological sites and monuments

The paper presents the evolution of the geographic environment imposed by sea-level changes in selected sites of the Aegean Sea region during the Upper Holocene. The changes are due, mainly, to paroxysmic phases of the actual neotectonic evolution and to differential—in time and space—block movements, and emerged or submerged coasts. The reconstitution of these coasts is presented and, in some cases, natural harbor morphology is revealed. The use and evolution of these sites is discussed. Other sites concern coastal or inland ancient settlements or constructions affected by submersion by the sea, by the rise of the groundwater table, or by uplift movements. A general discussion on engineering measures to be applied for protection of the antiquities affected by these geographic changes closes the presentation.