Evaluation of farmland losses from sea level rise and storm surges in the Pearl River Delta region under global climate change

The Pearl River Delta on China’s coast is a region that is seriously threatened by sea level rise and storm surges induced by global climate change, which causes flooding of large areas of farmland and huge agricultural losses. Based on relevant research and experience, a loss evaluation model of farmland yield caused by sea level rise and storm surges was established. In this model, the area of submerged farmland, area of crops, and per unit yield of every type of crop were considered, but the impact of wind, flooding time, changes in land use and plant structure were not considered for long-term prediction. Taking the Pearl River Delta region in Guangdong as the study area, we estimated and analyzed the spatial distribution and loss of farmlands for different scenarios in the years 2030, 2050, and 2100, using a digital elevation model, land-use data, local crop structure, rotation patterns, and yield loss ratios for different submerged heights obtained from field survey and questionnaires. The results show that the proportion of submerged farmlands and losses of agricultural production in the Pearl River Delta region will increase gradually from 2030 to 2100. Yangjiang, Foshan, and Dongguan show obvious increases in submerged farmlands, while Guangzhou and Zhuhai show slow increases. In agricultural losses, vegetables would sustain the largest loss of production, followed by rice and peanuts. The greatest loss of rice crops would occur in Jiangmen, and the loss of vegetable crops would be high in Shanwei and Jiangmen. Although losses of peanut crops are generally lower, Jiangmen, Guangzhou, and Shanwei would experience relatively high losses. Finally, some measures to defend against storm surges are suggested, such as building sea walls and gates in Jiangmen, Huizhou, and Shanwei, enforcing ecological protection to reduce destruction from storm surges, and strengthening disaster warning systems.     

The spatial heterogeneity of riverbed saturated permeability coefficient in the lower reaches of the Heihe River Basin,Northwest China

In arid region, direct infiltration from rainfall contributes little to groundwater compared with localized recharge from streams. How to quantify riverbed infiltration to groundwater systems is an important area of research in hydrology. In this study, saturated permeability coefficient of a riverbed in an arid inland river basin located in the northwest of China was obtained by Guelph Permeameter and laboratory analysis methods. The characteristics of riverbed infiltration and its spatial patterns were analysed using geostatistical method and kriging method. The results showed that the saturated permeability coefficient varied from 0.089 to 2.802 m/d, indicating moderate degree of variability. The Guelph Permeameter and laboratory test methods provided consistent estimates of saturated permeability coefficient. There was a strong spatial correlation for K_fs of the riverbed in this study area when Range (A) was less than 0.276°, suggesting that the maximum sampling distance for saturated permeability coefficient of the riverbed was 0.276° under isotropic conditions. The K_fs near the centre of the riverbed was higher than the value near riverbank. The K_fs values decreased in the direction of upstream to downstream in the Heihe River Basin. The riverbed mechanical composition, initial soil water content and bulk density have significant influence up on the riverbed infiltration. Besides, the topographical factors including the width, altitude and distance factors of the riverbed together impacted the riverbed infiltration and the slope of the riverbed and also influenced the riverbed infiltration. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国地震灾害损失调查评估培训系统在线考试子系统的设计与实现

从讨论灾评培训或考核的模式及未来根据系统考核结果如何有效选取灾评队员的方式入手,介绍了基于ASP.NET的中国地震灾害损失调查评估培训系统——在线考试子系统的研发、需求分析、功能模块划分、出题机制、考试机制、阅卷机制,以及相应数据库设计等问题。该子系统的研制,可对全国灾评人员进行基本业务测试、综合能力测试,并可进行等级认证考核工作,有力地保证灾评队员业务水准不断提高,达到"召之即来,来之能战"的技能要求。     

1961-2014年新疆冰雹灾害时空分布特征

通过整理、 普查得到1961-2014年新疆以县为单位的雹灾频次、 受灾面积、 经济损失的样本序列, 在此基础上定义了表征雹灾程度的无量纲数损失指数. 结果表明: 新疆雹灾频次集中出现在阿克苏地区、 博州、 石河子地区, 5-8月为多发期, 6月最多. 雹灾的年际变化呈现出2～5 a的短周期和7～8 a的长周期, 20世纪60、 70年代为新疆雹灾的少发期, 1980-1994年、 2001-2014年为雹灾的两个集中高发期. 按照地区累计灾损指数将新疆雹灾划分为5个等级, 阿克苏地区属严重雹灾区, 喀什地区、 塔城地区、 伊犁州属重雹灾区, 石河子地区、 博州、 昌吉州、 巴州、 克拉玛依市属中雹灾区, 阿勒泰地区、 克州、 和田地区、 哈密地区属轻雹灾区, 吐鲁番地区和乌鲁木齐市属微雹灾区.     

一种改进的公路边坡稳定性模糊评价方法研究

考虑影响公路边坡稳定性信息的不完整性、随机性和模糊性,以最大熵原理和工程模糊集理论为基础,并采用综合赋权法确定指标权重,提出了一种改进的公路边坡稳定性模糊评价方法。该模型充分利用影响因素的信息,以广义加权距离表示待评价样本与标准样本的差异,从优化条件中获得相对隶属度,并依据加权平均原则对边坡样本等级进行识别。该模型应用于常吉和吉怀高速公路边坡稳定性评价中,将评价结果与模糊综合模型和属性识别模型的结果以及边坡实际情况进行对比验证,体现了其较好的一致性,并且结果更合理。同时,该模型具有较小的信息熵值,表明其评价的不确定性小,可靠性较高,是一种边坡稳定性评价分析新方法,可在相关工程领域中应用推广。     

钻井液对煤心煤层气解吸损失量的影响

为了准确求取钻井液作用下煤心煤层气解吸损失量,借助物理化学、界面化学、表面浸润、浸润相变和煤化学等理论,并通过相关实验研究,讨论了游离态煤层气对解吸损失量的影响,探讨了钻井液作用下液置气和水锁现象对煤层气解吸机理的影响。结果表明:在钻井液作用下,煤心煤层气解吸是多因素动态耦合作用的结果,煤层气原始压力、煤结构破坏类型、粒度、煤级、提钻速度和装罐时间是影响煤层气解吸损失量的主要因素;另外,煤心煤层气在钻井液和空气两种介质中有置换解吸、变压解吸和常压解吸3种解吸过程。      

Plant traits and spread of the invasive salt marsh grass,Spartina alterniflora Loisel., in the Great Brak Estuary,South Africa

Spartina alterniflora Loisel., widely recognised as an aggressive invader of estuaries and salt marshes around the world, was discovered growing in the temporarily open/closed Great Brak Estuary on the southern Cape coast of South Africa in 2004. This is the first record of this invasive plant in Africa as well as its first occurrence in an estuary that closes to the sea. Plant traits and sediment characteristics were measured in 2009 and 2011 and found to be comparable to those reported elsewhere. Prior to the 2011 sampling, S. alterniflora stands had been flooded for almost eight months. As a result, sediment redox potential (?268 + 4 mV) was significantly lower in 2011. Sediments were mostly clay in 2009 (71 ± 0.01%) compared to a predominance of sand in 2011 (40 ± 0.02%). These differences were related to the artificial breaching of the estuary one month prior to sampling in March 2011. The grass currently occupies 1.1 ha in the salt marsh, sandflat and mudflat habitats of the estuary where its cover is expanding at a rate of 0.162 ha y^?1. Individual stands numbered about 12 in 2006, but have increased to 24 in 2011. These stands are expanding laterally at 0.9 m y^?1 although the long period of inundation during 2010 reduced this to 0.6 m y^?1. Expansion is due to vegetative spread as an analysis of the sediment seed bank showed no S. alterniflora seeds and very few salt marsh seeds (1 132 seeds m^?2). If left unchecked, S. alterniflora has the potential to replace 42.9 ha or 41% of the total estuary habitat in the Great Brak Estuary, but also has the potential to invade other estuaries in South Africa, especially those with extensive intertidal habitat and containing S. maritima (19 estuaries in total). This study illustrates the adaptive potential of this invasive marsh plant and indicates the possibility of invasion in seasonally closed estuaries in other locations around the world.     

基于球冠滑动平均的球面重力异常分离方法

将传统直角坐标系中的滑动平均方法(包括圆周法与网格法)运用到球面重力异常分离中。模型实验及实际应用均表明,该方法优于直接截断重力场模型阶次分离异常的方法,能够更好地反映实际地质情况,不仅适用于全球区域也适用于局部区域。     

Delay times of worldwide global earthquake alerts

Quantitative estimates of earthquake losses are needed as soon as possible after an event. A majority of earthquake-prone countries lack the necessary dense seismograph networks, modern communication, and in some places the experts to assess losses immediately, so the earliest possible warnings must come from global information and international experts. Earthquakes of interest to us are in most areas of the world M ≥ 6. In this article, we have analyzed the response time for distributing source parameter estimates from: National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) of the US Geological Survey (USGS), the European Mediterranean Seismological Center (EMSC), and Geophysical Institute-Russian Academy of Science, Obninsk (RAS). In terms of earthquake consequences, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (TWC) issues assessments of the likelihood of tsunamis, the Joint Research Laboratory in Ispra, Italy (JRC) issues alerts listing sociological aspects of the affected region, and we distribute loss estimates, and recently the USGS has started posting impact assessment information on their PAGER web page. Two years ago, the USGS reduced its median delay of distributing earthquake source parameters by a factor of 2 to the currently observed 26 min, and they distribute information for 99% of the events of interest to us. The median delay of EMSC is 41 min, with 30% of our target events reported. RAS reports after 81 min and 30% of the target events. The first tsunami assessments by TWC reach us 18 min (median) after large earthquakes in the Pacific area. The median delay of alerts by the JRC is 44 min (36 min recently). The World Agency for Planetary Monitoring and Earthquake Risk Reduction (WAPMERR) distributes detailed loss estimates in 41 min (median). Moment tensor solutions of the USGS, which can be helpful for refining loss estimates, reach us in 78 min (median) for 58% of the earthquakes of interest.