Potential Flank-Collapse of Soufrière Volcano, Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles? Numerical Simulation and Hazards

The past history of recurrent flank collapses of la Soufrière volcano of Guadeloupe, its structure, its well-developed hydrothermal system and the current activity constitute factors that could promote a future flank collapse, particularly in the case of a significant increase of activity, with or without shallow magmatic input. To address the hazards associated with such a collapse, we model the emplacement of the debris avalanche generated by a flank-collapse event in 1,250 BC (3,100 years B.P.). We use a finite-difference grain-flow model solving mass and momentum conservation equations that are depth-averaged over the slide thickness, and a Coulomb-type friction law with a variable basal (minimum) friction angle. Using the parameter values determined from this simulation, we then simulate the debris avalanche which could be generated by a potential collapse of the present lava dome. We then discuss the region which could be affected by such a future collapse, and additional associated hazards of concern.     

GIS-based modelling of rock-ice avalanches from Alpine permafrost areas

Changing permafrost conditions caused by present atmospheric warming are expected to affect the stability of steep rock walls in high mountain areas. The possible increase in periglacial slope instabilities and the especially long potential run-out distances in glacial environments require more awareness about the kind of events as well as robust models to foresee areas affected and distances reached. A geographic information system-based flow-routing model is introduced for modelling rock-ice avalanches on a regional scale. The model application to three major historical events in the European Alps shows the basic use for simulating such events for first-order assessments. By designating the path of steepest descent while allowing lateral spreading from the fall track up to 45°, general flow patterns as well as changes in the direction of progression are well reproduced. The run-out distances are determined using empirically based models and suit well the case studies presented.     

Differentiating past events on a cone influenced by debris‐flow and snow avalanche activity – a dendrogeomorphological approach

Dendrogeomorphology was used to investigate past events on a cone affected by both debris flows and snow avalanches. We report on results of 520 cores from 251 injured Larix decidua Mill. and Picea abies (L.) Karst. trees sampled on the Birchbach cone (Swiss Alps). Detailed analysis of tree‐ring sequences allowed dating of 561 growth disturbances in individual trees for a 252 yr period, extending from 1750 to 2002, which could be attributed to 30 different event years. We then localized the position of rows of traumatic resin ducts (TRDs) within the tree ring so as to assess the intra‐seasonal position of damage. In agreement with data on the local growth period, TRDs located at the beginning of the new growth ring were considered the result of avalanche impacts that occurred during the dormant season or in earliest earlywood between late October and early May. In contrast, TRD found in late earlywood or within latewood were considered the result of periglacial debris‐flow activity, as these layers of the tree ring are locally formed between July and early October. For nine out of the 30 reconstructed event years, the intra‐seasonal timing of TRDs indicated that reactions must be the result of past snow avalanche activity. In 19 other event years, TRDs showed that damage has been caused between July and early October and, thus, through debris flows in the Birchbach torrent. Finally, the spatial patterns of trees showing reactions as a result of particular events were assessed so as to approximate the extent of past debris flows and snow avalanches. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Hattian Bala rock avalanche and associated landslides triggered by the Kashmir Earthquake of 8 October 2005

The Kashmir Earthquake of the 8 October killed an estimated 87 350 people, 25 500 through co-seismic landslides. The largest landslide associated with the earthquake was the 68 × 10⁶ m³ Hattian Bala rock avalanche that destroyed a village and killed around 1000 people. The deposit blocks the valley to a depth of 130 m impounding a lake that reached the dam-crest in April 2007. An outburst flood now threatens a major settlement 3 km downstream. A series of space images reveals landslide clusters in the rock avalanche source area prior to the earthquake. The images also reveal a large slow-moving landslide with its toe in the lake, failure of this landslide may induce dam failure through overtopping and scour. Eighty five landslides in the Hattian Bala catchment predate the shaking of 8 October 2005, a further 73 are co-seismic with the main shock, and 21 postdate it in the period up to October 2006. Landslide magnitude–frequency distribution plots derived from satellite images allow an assessment of the contribution of seismically triggered events as compared to background rates of activity.     

The Chimborazo sector collapse and debris avalanche: Deposit characteristics as evidence of emplacement mechanisms

Chimborazo is a Late Pleistocene to Holocene stratovolcano located at the southwest end of the main Ecuadorian volcanic arc. It experienced a large sector collapse and debris avalanche (DA) of the initial edifice (CH-I). This left a 4 km wide scar, removing 8.0 ± 0.5 km³ of the edifice. The debris avalanche deposit (DAD) is abundantly exposed throughout the Riobamba Basin to the Río Chambo, more than 35 km southeast of the volcano. The DAD averages a thickness of 40 m, covers about 280 km², and has a volume of > 11 km³. Two main DAD facies are recognized: block and mixed facies. The block facies is derived predominantly from edifice lava and forms > 80 vol.% of the DAD, with a probable volume increase of 15–25 vol.%. The mixed facies was essentially created by mixing brecciated edifice rock with substratum and is found mainly in distal and marginal areas. The DAD has clear surface ridges and hummocks, and internal structures such as jigsaw cracks, injections, and shear-zone features are widespread. Structures such as stretched blocks along the base contact indicate high basal shear. Substratum incorporation is directly observed at the base and is inferred from the presence of substratum-derived material in the DAD body. Based on the facies and structural interpretation, we propose an emplacement model of a lava-rich avalanche strongly cataclased before and/or during failure initiation. The flow mobilises and incorporates significant substrata (10–14 vol.%) while developing a fine lubricating basal layer. The substrata-dominated mixed facies is transported to the DAD interior and top in dykes invading previously-formed fractures.     

龙滩水电站航道座滑边坡平面弹塑性有限元分析

基于弹塑性有限元（FEM）模型和Mohr-Coulomb屈服准则,采用平面有限元法对龙滩水电站航道1+016～ 1+080段座滑后边坡在开挖处理过程中的稳定性进行了数值模拟研究,分析了开挖中岩坡的应力场、位移场、塑性屈服区及支护效应。模拟结果表明,边坡在开挖过程中存在连续变形,局部出现塑性屈服,地下水位升降对边坡影响较大,但边坡整体仍处于稳定状态,开挖过程中有效的支护措施对改善边坡的稳定性至关重要。     

The Impact of Global/Local Bias on Task-Solving in Map-Related Tasks Employing Extrinsic and Intrinsic Visualization of Risk Uncertainty Maps

The form of visual representation affects both the way in which the visual representation is processed and the effectiveness of this processing. Different forms of visual representation may require the employment of different cognitive strategies in order to solve a particular task; at the same time, the different representations vary as to the extent to which they correspond with an individual’s preferred cognitive style. The present study employed a Navon-type task to learn about the occurrence of global/local bias. The research was based on close interdisciplinary cooperation between the domains of both psychology and cartography. Several different types of tasks were made involving avalanche hazard maps with intrinsic/extrinsic visual representations, each of them employing different types of graphic variables representing the level of avalanche hazard and avalanche hazard uncertainty. The research sample consisted of two groups of participants, each of which was provided with a different form of visual representation of identical geographical data, such that the representations could be regarded as ‘informationally equivalent’. The first phase of the research consisted of two correlation studies, the first involving subjects with a high degree of map literacy (students of cartography) (intrinsic method: N?=?35; extrinsic method: N?=?37). The second study was performed after the results of the first study were analyzed. The second group of participants consisted of subjects with a low expected degree of map literacy (students of psychology; intrinsic method: N?=?35; extrinsic method: N?=?27).The first study revealed a statistically significant moderate correlation between the students’ response times in extrinsic visualization tasks and their response times in a global subtest (r?=?0.384, p?<?0.05); likewise, a statistically significant moderate correlation was found between the students’ response times in intrinsic visualization tasks and their response times in the local subtest (r?=?0.387, p?<?0.05). At the same time, no correlation was found between the students’ performance in the local subtest and their performance in extrinsic visualization tasks, or between their scores in the global subtest and their performance in intrinsic visualization tasks. The second correlation study did not confirm the results of the first correlation study (intrinsic visualization/‘small figures test’: r?=?0.221; extrinsic visualization/‘large figures test’: r?=?0.135). The first phase of the research, where the data was subjected to statistical analysis, was followed by a comparative eye-tracking study, whose aim was to provide more detailed insight into the cognitive strategies employed when solving map-related tasks. More specifically, the eye-tracking study was expected to be able to detect possible differences between the cognitive patterns employed when solving extrinsic- as opposed to intrinsic visualization tasks. The results of an exploratory eye-tracking data analysis support the hypothesis of different strategies of visual information processing being used in reaction to different types of visualization.     

青藏高原古高速远程滑坡沉积学特征研究

高速远程滑坡运动学机理是国际工程地质领域亟待解决的重大前沿性关键科学问题.为探索高速远程滑坡的运动学机理,以青藏高原不同构造背景下的三大高速远程滑坡为研究对象,通过现场工程地质调查与分析,详细探讨了滑坡运动路径上所揭露出的各种表面与剖面沉积学特征,结果显示:(1)沿滑坡运动路径上依次可见大型堆积平台、纵向脊、横向脊、堆...     

Sedimentary signatures of cyclic growth and destruction of stratovolcanoes: A case study from Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand

The long-term behaviour of andesite stratovolcanoes is characterised by a repetition of edifice growth phases followed by collapse. This cyclic pattern represents a natural frequency at varying timescales in the growth dynamics of stratovolcanoes worldwide. Around the > 130 ka Mt. Taranaki (Egmont volcano), New Zealand, coastal–cliff successions at 20–40 km distance comprise repeating packages of lithologically and sedimentologically distinctive mass-flow deposits. Varying depositional mechanisms and source properties of these units record growth and collapse cycles of the central edifice. These are used to construct a model for cyclic volcaniclastic sedimentation in the surrounds of stratovolcanoes. During edifice-construction phases, thick packages of tabular, predominantly monolithologic, hyperconcentrated-flow and debris-flow deposits accumulate with intercalated tephra beds. The mass-flow units commonly contain large proportions of fresh pumice or juvenile-lithic andesite. Intervals of quiescence separating eruptive periods are characterised by landscape re-adjustment, accompanied by deposition of fluvial and aeolian sediments, along with steady accretion of medial ash. In contrast, brief episodes of destruction are marked by wide-spread, distinctively clay-rich, polylithologic debris-avalanche deposits and related marginal debris flow units. The growth stages can be terminated by an eruption-triggered sector collapse, or by external forces once the edifice exceeds a critical stable height or profile (dependent on eruptive style and local geo-tectonic conditions). Once the edifice becomes metastable, regional tectonic earthquakes or shallow-level intrusion events are likely triggers for collapse. Although the resulting debris avalanches represent the greatest individual hazard from such andesite stratovolcanoes, their frequency is relatively low compared with other types of mass-flows generated during edifice-growth phases. Accurate forecasts of future hazard from mass-flow events are therefore dependent on recognition of both the frequency of a stratovolcano's growth cycle and its current position in that cycle.     

Relationships between rainfall and landsliding in the Middle Hills,Nepal

Many studies have documented major landslide events in mountain areas following heavy rainfall amounts. In the Himalaya, landslides occur during every monsoon period, but the role of rainfall in triggering these failures is not clear. This paper reports the results of a three-year study (1991-1993) into landsliding in the Likhu Khola drainage basin, Middle Hills, Nepal. Considerable annual variability in numbers, types and sizes of landslides was noted. Some of this variability can be explained by fluctuations in rainfall amounts and intensities, but many landslides were explained more easily by other controlling factors. In situations where slopes are extensively terraced for agriculture, with some terraces being intensely irrigated and others not, relationships between landsliding and rainfall amounts are complex and no simple explanations can be made.