基于IPCC AR4部分耦合模式结果的21世纪长江中下游强降水预估

利用IPCC AR4气候模式诊断和相互比较项目(PCMDI)20世纪模拟试验资料, 通过模式气候态与观测(再分析)气候态的对比, 从存有完整逐日降水资料的14个模式中挑选出7个对东亚模拟较好的模式(即gfdl cm2.0、 gfdl cm2.1、 cgcm、miroc(m)、 cnrm、 echam、 cgcmt47)。然后, 利用这7个模式在A1B、 A2、 B1三种不同温室气体排放情景下21世纪预估试验结果, 分析长江中下游强降水的未来演变。结果表明: 不同模式模拟结果有较好的一致性。相对20世纪后20年(1980—1999年)的平均而言, 21世纪不仅年平均强降水日数、 单次强降水强度呈现上升趋势, 且其年际变率也增强; 就不同排放情景比较而言, A1B、 A2情景下强降水频次与强度的增强趋势均比B1情景下要大; 就多模式平均来看, 在A1B、 A2、 B1排放情景下, 强降水频次分别增加约30%、 20%、 l5％, 强降水强度分别增加约20%、20%、 10%, 强降水频次的年际标准差在三种情景下均增加约20%, 强降水强度年际标准差分别增加约20%、20%、 10%。这些结果意味着, 未来不仅强降水增加, 且极端暴雨、 大暴雨易于出现, 旱涝也将更为频繁。     

玉树隆宝2014年冬季冻土积雪对陆气通量关键参数的影响分析

利用玉树隆宝湿地的观测资料,分析了未冻结、冻结和冻结有积雪覆盖三种情况下动量通量和感热通量的日变化情况,计算了三种情况下动量总体输送系数、感热总体输送系数、动力学粗糙度和热力学粗糙度,分析了附加阻尼和粗糙度雷诺数的关系,并将三种附加阻尼的参数化方案进行了比较,结果表明:冻结状态下动量通量和感热通量的日变化幅度最大,冻结有积雪覆盖时,动量通量和感热通量的日变化幅度最小。动量总体输送系数C_D和感热总体输送系数C_H的值在冻结时最大,冻结有积雪覆盖时最小,动力学粗糙度和热力学粗糙度在冻结状况下最小,冻结有积雪覆盖时最大。未冻结、冻结和冻结有积雪覆盖状态下,三种附加阻尼kB~(-1)参数化方案中,幂函数型方案较为合适。     

一次飑线过程的数值模拟及诊断分析

利用NCAR、NCEP和FSL/NOAA等共同研制的WRF中尺度数值模式,对2009年6月3日河南地区发生的一次飑线过程进行数值模拟,并利用模式输出的高分辨率资料对该次过程进行诊断分析。结果表明:WRF模式成功地再现了高低空环流形势演变及强对流的分布发展特征,高空冷涡后部冷空气南下,近地层较暖,形成了上冷下暖的位势不稳定层结及地面辐合线是这次强对流和飑线天气过程的触发机制。强对流发生时,该地区出现的低空增温增湿、低空急流的爆发及低层急流核向东南快传、高空急流轴稳定在强对流天气发生地上空,对流有效位能积累和释放随时间的演变过程及垂直螺旋度大值中心等对此次强对流天气过程有较好的指示意义。     

0103号台风"榴莲"路径与致洪暴雨成因分析

通过对0103号台风"榴莲"的路径及特大暴雨天气的环流背景分析,认为造成这次致洪暴雨过程的最主要的天气原因是:深厚的副热带高压使台风偏向西行进入广西,与正在爆发的西南季风云系相遇,从而使降雨量大幅度增加,引发了广西南部特大洪水过程。     

Observation and study on the whole process of cloud-to-ground lightning using narrowband radio interferometer

A narrowband radio interferometer has been developed and used to locate the entire sources of VHF radiations from a negative cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning discharge which contains 19 strokes. This system uses five antennas to form an array consisting of short- and long-baselines along two or- thogonal directions. The system error which comes from frequency conversion is reduced by phase detection through direct high frequency amplifying. An interactive graphic analysis procedure is used to remove the fringe ambiguities which exist inherently in interferometry and to determine the direction of lightning radiation sources in two dimensions (azimuth and elevation) as a function of time at a time resolution of microsecond orders. With the developed system, the whole progression process in time and space of a lightning flash can be reconstructed. In this paper, combining the synchronous data of electric filed change and VHF radiation, the whole processes of an example negative CG flash have been studied in detail. It is found that the preliminary breakdown event of the CG flash started from negative charge region and exhibited firstly a downward pregression and then an upward propagation. There were very intense and continuous radiations during stepped leaders which became much stronger when the first return stroke began. In contrast, there were less and only discrete radiations during dart leaders. Stepped leader and dart leader may transform to each other depending on the state of the ionization of the path. The progression speed of initial stepped leaders was about 105 ms?1, while that was about 4.1×106 and 6.0×106 ms?1 for dart leaders and dart-stepped leaders, respectively. M events produced hook-shaped field changes accompanied by active burst of radiations at their begin- nings. Followed these active radiation processes, M events appeared to contact finally into conducting main discharge channels. The mean progression speed of M events was about 7×107 ms?1, greater than that of the dart leaders and dart-step leaders. K events and attempted leaders were essentially the same as dart leaders except that they could not reach the ground and initiate return strokes.     

Experimental study on strain field evolution around a simulated thrust fault

Earthquakes result from continuous geodynamic processes. A topic of significant interest for the scientific community is to elaborate on the phenomena governing the faulting and fracturing of crustal rocks. Therefore, in this study, uniaxial compressive shear failure experiments were conducted on Fangshan marble rock samples with a prefabricated slot to simulate thrust faulting. The center of each marble plate (105 mm × 80 mm × 5 mm) was engraved with a 30-mm long double-sided nonpenetrating slot (depth: 2 mm, width: 0.5 mm). The deformation and destruction processes of the rock surface were recorded using a high-speed camera. The digital image correlation method was used to calculate the displacement and strain distribution and variation at different loading stages. The accumulative and incremental displacement fields u and v , strain field e_x and e_y, and shear strain e_xy were analyzed. When the loading level reached its ultimate value, the strain field was concentrated around the prefabricated slot. The concentration reached a maximum at the ends of the prefabricated slot. The magnitude of shear strain reached 0.1. This experiment contributes to our understanding of the dynamic process of active faulting.     

Heterogeneous mantle melting and magmatic processes at the East Pacific Rise (2.6–3.1°S): Evidence from mid-ocean ridge basalt geochemistry and Sr–Nd–Pb isotopes

ABSTRACT

We present the major and trace elements and Sr, Nd, and Pb isotopes in mid-ocean ridge basalts (MORB) from the East Pacific Rise (EPR) at 2.6–3.1°S. These samples are low-K tholeiites and show significant variation in their major element compositions (e.g. 4.60–8.18 wt% MgO, 8.34–12.12 wt% CaO, 9.78–14.25 wt% Fe₂O₃, and 0.06–0.34 K₂O wt%). Trace element abundances of the 2.6–3.1°S MORB are variably depleted (e.g. (La/Sm), _N = 0.51–0.78, Zr/Y = 2.35–3.42, Th/La = 0.035–0.056, and Ce/Yb = 2.38–3.96) but closely resemble the average N-MORB. In the compatible elements (Ni and Cr) against incompatible element Zr plots, the 2.6–3.1°S MORB show well-defined negative correlations, together with a liquid line of descent (LLD) modelling and petrographic observations, implying a significant role of olivine, plagioclase and clinopyroxene fractionation during magma evolution. When compared to global MORB and peridotites, the 2.6–3.1°S MORB and most of the other axial lavas from the South EPR show similar Zn/Fe, Zn/Mn, and Fe/Mn ratios, attesting to a peridotite-dominated mantle lithology. However, the relationships between incompatible trace element ratios, such as Zr/Rb and Nb/Sm, and the negative correlation between Zr/Nb and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr indicate a geochemically heterogeneous mantle source. The mantle beneath the South EPR likely consists of two components, with the enriched component residing as physically distinct domains (e.g. veins or dikes) in the depleted peridotite matrix. In the Sr–Nd–Pb isotope space, the South EPR MORB lie along the mixing lines between the depleted MORB mantle (DMM) and the ‘C’-like Pukapuka endmember. We infer that low-F melts derived from these enriched materials may cause localized mantle heterogeneity (veins or dikes) via an infiltration process. Subsequent melting of the refertilized mantle may impart an isotopically distinct characteristic to South EPR MORB.     

安塞县退耕还林工程与农业生态经济社会系统协同效应的分析——基于VAR模型的实证分析

针对黄土丘陵区退耕还林工程与农业生态经济社会系统协同性研究滞后的现实,运用向量自回归模型(VAR),通过对安塞县1995–2014年相关数据的分析,明确了其协同效应。退耕还林工程结果表明:退耕还林工程对农业生态经济社会系统产生作用的同时,农业生态经济社会系统的改变也反作用于退耕还林工程,明确了退耕还林工程与农业生态经济社会系统之间存在协同互馈的效应。在这一协同过程中,退耕还林工程对农业生态系统的贡献率达34%,明显高于退耕对农业经济系统、农业社会系统的贡献率;农业经济系统对退耕还林工程的影响程度最为明显,贡献率最高点达55.3%且常年稳定,这些都与现实状况相一致。基于此,为了推进退耕还林工程与农业生态经济社会系统的优化耦合,需要在增强生态功能基础上,通过发展碳汇产业促使生态功能的经济显化,构建以提高区域内资源的有效利用率为核心的农业产业–资源链。     

同构造沉积分析反演逆冲构造变形过程--燕山东段凌源南部中生代逆冲构造变形过程研究

介绍了同构造沉积分析的基本概念、研究思路、主要研究方法及其在区域构造变形过程研究中的重要作用。基于对辽西凌源南部区域构造变形、晚侏罗世土城子组同构造沉积粗碎屑沉积物成分变化规律的研究 ,获得如下主要认识 :( 1)同构造沉积始于髫髻山组火山活动之后 ;沉积物成分变化及古水动力特征表明 ,同构造沉积物源区主体位于盆地西侧褶皱隆起区 ,而不是来自南东方向的大型逆冲断层上盘的前渊沉积 ;而且显示了正常层序的物源区倾斜岩层的剥蚀和揭顶过程 ;当时的剥蚀作用已达中元古界蓟县系雾迷山组上部。 ( 2 )分布于郭家店盆地和邓杖子盆地之间的中元古界长城系地层“残片” ,与其东侧北票组间为向SEE逆冲的断层接触 ,而西侧与土城子组 (原邓杖子组 )之间为不整合接触 ;在老虎沟东南长城系地层“残片”不复存在的区域 ,土城子组不整合于北票组之上。该“残片”很可能是髫髻山组火山活动之前指向SEE的逆冲构造变形形成的飞来峰构造的残余部分。( 3 )凌源南部中生代逆冲构造变形可以区分为 :早侏罗世北票组之前 (印支期 )由北向南的逆冲作用、北票组之后髫髻山组之前向SEE的冲断推覆、髫髻山组之后的逆冲褶皱变形与同构造沉积作用以及九佛堂组之后局部的逆冲作用。指向SEE的主要逆冲作用以及伴生褶皱变形     

最近十多年来冰冻圈加速萎缩——IPCC第六次评估报告之冰冻圈变化解读

政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）于2021年8月发布了第六次评估报告第一工作组报告《气候变化2021：自然科学基础》。该报告基于最新的观测和模拟研究,评估了冰冻圈变化的现状,并采用CMIP6模式对未来变化进行了预估。报告明确指出,近十多年来冰冻圈呈现加速萎缩状态：北极海冰面积显著减小、厚度减薄、冰量迅速减少;格陵兰冰盖、南极冰盖和全球山地冰川物质亏损加剧;多年冻土温度升高、活动层增厚,海底多年冻土范围减少;北半球积雪范围也在明显变小,但积雪量有较大空间差异。冰冻圈的快速萎缩加速海平面的上升。未来人类活动对冰冻圈萎缩的影响将愈加显著,从而导致北极海冰面积继续减少乃至消失,冰盖和冰川物质将持续亏损,多年冻土和积雪的范围继续缩减。报告也提出,目前冰冻圈研究仍存在观测资料稀缺、模型对各影响因素的敏感性参数和过程描述亟需提升、对吸光性杂质的变化机制认知不足等问题,从而影响了对冰冻圈变化预估的准确性,未来需要重点关注。