基于时间序列分析的变形预报

研究了利用时间序列分析方法进行变形预报。首先叙述了变形观测数据预处理、时间序列平稳性检验、模型的选用和检验;然后针对一组实测数据,利用多项式提取趋势项,分析回归残差,建立了AR(2)预报模型,并利用模型进行了预报;最后将预报结果与实测数据比较,证明了预报模型的有效性。     

半方差函数与Moran’s I在土壤微量元素空间分布研究中的应用——以寿光市为例

利用半方差函数与Moran’s I两种空间分析方法,研究了山东省寿光市土壤中微量元素的空间分布特征,以探讨不同空间分析方法的差异性与准确性。结果表明,无论表层土壤还是深层土壤,半方差函数分析得到的土壤微量元素的空间相关距离大约为20~60 km,而空间自相关图获得的正自相关距离为20~25km,负自相关距离为25~55 km。除深层土壤中的Zn元素外,其他元素均达到了显著的自相关水平。空间自相关方法对土壤微量元素空间相关性的判断要优于半方差函数法。     

火山岩风化体储层控制因素研究—以三塘湖盆地石炭系卡拉岗组为例

针对火山岩风化壳储层控制因素和成因复杂的难题,以三塘湖盆地石炭系卡拉岗组为例,在搞清晚石炭世构造环境和岩性特征基础上,提出风化淋滤和断裂改造是火山岩风化壳形成有利储层的主要控制因素.不同火山岩岩性经风化淋滤后储层物性均增大并能形成有利储层,储集层孔隙类型以次生溶蚀孔隙和裂缝为主,具双峰分布特征.建立了5层结构模型,并提...     

新疆西准噶尔布龙果尔古油藏的发现及其石油地质意义

本文记述了首次在西准噶尔布龙果尔地区发现的古油藏基本地质情况,探讨古油藏产出的地质层位及时代归属,对古油藏油源问题进行了初步分析,在此基础上提出古油藏成藏预测模式.认为上古生界古油藏所在的和布克河组一段地质时代为晚泥盆世法门期,中生界古油藏产出层位为下侏罗统八道湾组;推断和布克河组古油藏油源可能来自中泥盆统呼吉尔斯特组...     

Efficient conceptual model for simulating the effect of aquifer heterogeneity on natural groundwater discharge to rivers

When linearity can be assumed (linear response of heads to stresses), stream–aquifer flow exchange can be simulated as the drainage of a number of independent linear reservoirs. This conceptual model, which can be mathematically deduced in a univocal way from an eigenvalue solution of the linear groundwater flow problem, facilitates the understanding of the physical phenomenon and the analysis of influencing factors. The number of reservoirs required to simulate stream depletion in some ideal homogeneous cases of stream–aquifer connection was analyzed in detail in a previous investigation using analytical eigenvalue solutions [16]. However, most aquifers are heterogeneous in nature and numerical solutions must be employed to analyze whether they could also be simulated using few reservoirs. This paper presents a stochastic analysis of the influence of heterogeneity on the simulation of natural groundwater discharges in aquifers connected to rivers, as a series of linear reservoirs. A Monte-Carlo approach was employed to perform this study. The results show that, on a monthly time scale, many cases (even heterogeneous aquifers) can be simulated using just a few reservoirs with sufficient accuracy and at minimum computational cost. Therefore, this modeling technique can be useful to efficiently simulate the integrated management of complex water resources systems at the basin scale (with many aquifers, reservoirs, demands, etc.) that need to simultaneously consider surface and groundwater flow and stream–aquifer interaction.     

Study on the S-wave Splitting Characteristics in the Longtan Reservoir Area,Guangxi,China

In this paper,the shear wave splitting features of the Longtan reservoir area are studied by adopting the traditional cross-correlation coefficient method and polarization analysis,using the data recorded by the seismic network founded by a project under the National Science and Technology Pillar Program from April 2009 to April 2010.We found that most of polarization directions at seismic stations are consistent with the direction of the overall regional stress field,but local structures and faults may con...     

The Focal Mechanism and Characteristic of Stress Field in the Zipingpu Area before the M_S8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake

Based on seismic wave records of the Chengdu digital seismic network and Zipingpu reservoir digital seismic network from August 16,2004 to May 12,2008 when the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake occurred,the parameters of focal mechanisms of 486 earthquakes with magnitude larger than M1.6 in the Zipingpu reservoir area were calculated using amplitude ratio method,meanwhile the temporal-spatial variation characteristics of mechanisms and stress field were analyzed based on these parameters.Results show a low ratio of thrust earthquakes and an increased number of strike-slip earthquakes in the reservoir water area in the period from 2006 to 2008.While in the areas far from the reservoir waterfront,the thrust earthquakes took up a high proportion and the strike-slip ones did not increase.The direction of mean principal compressive stress field was deflected and disturbed differently in each area before the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake.     

三峡库首区非构造型水库地震的烈度衰减

非构造型水库地震具有震级小、震源浅、烈度高的特点,研究其烈度衰减对库区地震地质灾害的预测与防治具有重要的意义。根据三峡库首区近年地震实地科考原始烈度资料,选择椭圆衰减模型并对其进行二元回归分析,得到非构造型水库地震的烈度衰减关系。并与原有构造型水库地震烈度衰减关系进行比较。结果可供库区地震危险性分析与地震小区划使用。     

新丰江水库地震序列的分段研究

从新丰江水库地震序列分段、地震序列参数统计、地震序列分段与库水位关系等方面探讨新丰江地区的地震特征.结果表明:①水库地震全序列低b值(≤0.9)时段与大区域地震活动的增强存在一定的相关性,余震活动在一定程度上具有华南地区地震活动“窗口”的作用.②水库地震晚期余震释放阶段55个ML≥3.5级地震分序列研究显示,1975年...     

克孜尔水库跨断层形变年变特征分析

通过对克孜尔水库跨断层形变特征进行分析,结果显示:①垂直形变每年3～4月、10～11月分别为峰、谷值时间;水平形变每年6～7月、1月分别为峰、谷值时间.②垂直变形的峰-谷时间间隔在1997年之前多为5～8个月,1998年后多为1～3个月;谷-峰值时间间隔在1997年前多为4～7个月,1998年后多在8～11个月.水平形...