2021年10月山西一次罕见持续性强降水过程物理机制分析

利用气象观测资料、NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°再分析资料以及GDAS资料,对2021年10月2-7日山西持续性强降水天气过程进行分析。结果表明：稳定的乌拉尔山低槽后部冷空气扩散,中纬度短波槽东移,与副热带高压外围西南暖湿气流持续交汇,同时高低空急流耦合形成强烈上升运动,低层切变线和地面辐合线稳定维持,及低层水汽不断输送并形成辐合,为持续性强降水的发生发展提供有利动力和水汽条件。此次强降水过程分为对流性降水和稳定性降水2个阶段,2阶段水汽输送通道的源地、路径、高度均有明显差异,但水汽输送贡献率均以对流层中低层山西南侧的水汽输送占主导地位。降水开始前,对流层中上层存在对称不稳定,大气可降水量明显跃增;对流性降水阶段,干空气不断入侵,对流不稳定快速建立与释放,对流层中低层水汽辐合区与强上升气流配合,导致山西出现强对流天气。地形的阻挡、抬升及地形收缩作用,对局地极端强降水具有增幅作用。     

热带大洋对纬向和经向风应力的联合响应

考虑了经向风应力和纬向风应力联合作用下热带大洋的响应问题.结果表明,只有一阶的经向风应力或具有辐合辐散的经向风应力才对最后的速度场和位势场造成影响.零阶的扰动温跃层和纬圈流受风应力的直接驱动和Kelvin波、Rossby短波的影响,而Rossby短波由经向风应力直接造成;二阶模则受风应力的直接驱动和Rossby短波的作用,同时经向风应力也产生了附加的Rossby短波.另外,在西边界处存在很强的暖水补充到赤道的现象,经向风应力有使暖水向赤道输送的作用,而西风应力使西边界处的暖水向东输送.     

Simulation of site-scale water fluxes in desert and natural oasis ecosystems of the arid region in Northwest China

The study of water fluxes is important to better understand hydrological cycles in arid regions. Data-driven machine learning models have been recently applied to water flux simulation. Previous studies have built site-scale simulation models of water fluxes for individual sites separately, requiring a large amount of data from each site and significant computation time. For arid areas, there is no consensus as to the optimal model and variable selection method to simulate water fluxes. Using data from seven flux observation sites in the arid region of Northwest China, this study compared the performance of random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), back propagation neural network (BPNN), and multiple linear regression (MLR) models in simulating water fluxes. Additionally, the study investigated inter-annual and seasonal variation in water fluxes and the dominant drivers of this variation at different sites. A universal simulation model for water flux was built using the RF approach and key variables as determined by MLR, incorporating data from all sites. Model performance of the SVM algorithm (R² = 0.25–0.90) was slightly worse than that of the RF algorithm (R² = 0.41–0.91); the BPNN algorithm performed poorly in most cases (R² = 0.15–0.88). Similarly, the MLR results were limited and unreliable (R² = 0.00–0.66). Using the universal RF model, annual water fluxes were found to be much higher than the precipitation received at each site, and natural oases showed higher fluxes than desert ecosystems. Water fluxes were highest during the growing season (May–September) and lowest during the non-growing season (October–April). Furthermore, the dominant drivers of water flux variation were various among different sites, but the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), soil moisture and soil temperature were important at most sites. This study provides useful insights for simulating water fluxes in desert and oasis ecosystems, understanding patterns of variation and the underlying mechanisms. Besides, these results can make a contribution as the decision-making basis to the water management in desert and oasis ecosystems.     

滇池沉水植物生长过程对间隙水氮、磷时空变化的影响

2015年6-10月通过原位采集滇池沉水植物分布区和无植物对照区柱状沉积物间隙水,分析其溶解性总氮(DTN)和溶解性总磷(DTP)、溶解性无机氮(DIN)和溶解性无机磷(DIP)及溶解性有机氮(DON)和溶解性有机磷(DOP)浓度的时空变化,探讨沉水植物分布对间隙水氮、磷浓度、形态贡献及氮磷比的影响.结果表明:滇池沉水植物生长过程显著影响间隙水氮、磷浓度.与无植物对照区相比,沉水植物生长过程对间隙水氮浓度的削减主要发生在6、8月,而对间隙水磷浓度的削减主要发生在7月,反映了沉水植物对氮、磷两种元素的生物地球化学循环作用机制不同;间隙水氮形态贡献受季节性影响较大,6-7月以DON贡献为主,沉水植物分布区和无植物对照区分别达到61%和84%;而8-10月以DIN贡献为主,沉水植物分布区和无植物对照区分别为76%和75%;沉水植物分布区磷形态贡献随季节波动变化,沉水植物分布区以DOP贡献为主(63%),无植物对照区以DIP贡献为主(62%);沉水植物生长对沉积物间隙水各形态氮磷比影响显著.沉水植物生长显著增加间隙水DTN/DTP比,尤其是DIN/DIP比,相反降低DON/DOP比.沉水植物对间隙水氮、磷吸收及转化过程改变了沉积物氮、磷释放机制,从而影响上覆水氮、磷组成及氮磷比,很可能会影响到浮游植物生长及藻类水华过程,这对于湖泊水质管理具有重要意义.     

Correcting systematic effects in a large set of photometric light curves

We suggest a new algorithm to remove systematic effects in a large set of light curves obtained by a photometric survey. The algorithm can remove systematic effects, such as those associated with atmospheric extinction, detector efficiency, or point spread function changes over the detector. The algorithm works without any prior knowledge of the effects, as long as they linearly appear in many stars of the sample. The approach, which was originally developed to remove atmospheric extinction effects, is based on a lower rank approximation of matrices, an approach which has already been suggested and used in chemometrics, for example. The proposed algorithm is especially useful in cases where the uncertainties of the measurements are unequal. For equal uncertainties, the algorithm reduces to the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) algorithm. We present a simulation to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm and we point out its potential, in the search for transit candidates in particular.     

Characteristics of coseismic water level changes at Tangshan well for the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake and its larger aftershocks

Coseismic water level changes which may have been induced by the Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake and its 15 larger aftershocks (M_S≥?5.4) have been observed at Tangshan well. We analyze the correlation between coseismic parameters (maximum amplitude, duration, coseismic step and the time when the coseismic reach its maximum amplitude) and earthquake parameters (magnitude, well-epicenter distance and depth), and then compare the time when the coseismic oscillation reaches its maximum amplitude with the seismogram from Douhe seismic station which is about 16.3 km away from Tangshan well. The analysis indicates that magnitude is the main factor influencing the induced coseismic water level changes, and that the well-epicenter distance and depth have less influence. M_S magnitude has the strongest correlation with the coseismic water level changes comparing to M_W and M_L magnitudes. There exists strong correlation between the maximum amplitude, step size and the oscillation duration. The water level oscillation and step are both caused by dynamic strain sourcing from seismic waves. Most of the times when the oscillations reach their maximum amplitudes are between S and Rayleigh waves. The coseismic water level changes are due to the co-effect of seismic waves and hydro-geological environments.     

Short-term temperature and salinity variations in the Tsushima Strait in 2004: Behavior of the surface low-salinity water in the strait

Temporal variations in temperature and salinity observed in 2004 were investigated on a short time scale in the Tsushima Strait. The data were obtained by long-term in situ measurements at Mitsushima and Futaoi Island using an instrument equipped with a piston-type wiper to avoid biofouling. In addition, the temperature and salinity values of the surface layer obtained by a commercial ferryboat between Hakata and Busan were used to investigate their spatiotemporal variations. Temperature and salinity variations with a time scale of several days had a negative correlation in the summer. This evidence suggests that a warm and less saline water mass, which is considered to be mainly the Changjiang Diluted Water (CDW), flowed intermittently through the Tsushima Strait in summer. In late July 2004, a large low-salinity water mass was detected in the Tsushima Strait. At that time, the freshwater transport through the Tsushima Strait transiently reached about 12 × 10⁴ m³s⁻¹, which is estimated from observed acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) data along a ferryboat line and inferred salinity profiles. This estimated value is more than double the maximum of the climatological monthly mean of the Changjiang discharge. Furthermore, salinity and surface current data obtained by high frequency ocean radar (HF radar) indicate that water properties at Mitsushima may occasionally represent part of the water flowing through the western channel via a countercurrent, although Mitsushima is geographically located in the eastern channel.     

基于PHC3.0数据集的北冰洋水团分析

基于PHC3.0极地科学中心水文气候数据集(简称PHC3.0数据集)的温度和盐度资料,使用聚类分析和Bayes判别分析的方法,对北纬70°以北海域的水团结构进行了分析,在北冰洋区域划分出4个水团:北冰洋表层水(ASW)、大西洋中层水(AIW)、太平洋水(PW)和北冰洋深层水(ADW)。北冰洋表层水(ASW)遍布于欧亚海盆和加拿大海盆,以低温低盐为特征。大西洋中层水(AIW)位于约200～900m深度,在北冰洋环极边界流的作用下,其影响可达到加拿大海盆。太平洋水(PW)受经白令海峡进入北冰洋的海水影响,相对高温低盐,夏季时影响显著。北冰洋深层水(ADW)在海盆中相当均匀,几乎没有季节变化,盐度约在34.95psu,温度在加拿大海盆约为-0.3℃,欧亚海盆约为-0.7℃。     

盾构隧道局部长期渗水对隧道变形及地表沉降的影响分析

研究表明,盾构隧道长期渗水会造成地表及隧道严重沉降。针对盾构隧道局部渗流难以模拟的现状,首先提出了一种既符合盾构隧道刚度要求又能实现局部接头渗水的计算方法;在稳定渗流状态对应的相同渗流量的前提下,对比分析了管片在不同接头渗水条件下隧道周围土体孔压分布、地表和隧道沉降以及隧道变形规律。分析结果表明,盾构隧道渗水接头的位置不同,孔压分布、地表和隧道沉降以及隧道的变形均有明显差异;接头位置越靠近隧道底部,渗水导致的孔压减小越显著,造成的地表及隧道沉降越显著。接头渗水不但会使隧道发生横向椭圆化变形,还会引起隧道左右两侧受力不平衡,从而造成隧道水平侧移。通过对比表明,采用接头渗水和传统的衬砌均质渗水得到的孔压分布、沉降及隧道变形规律均有显著不同;不考虑隧道局部渗水特点会对隧道结构长期性态的认识产生偏差。     

科尔沁沙地水域景观格局的时空动态——以奈曼旗为例

对位于科尔沁沙地腹地的奈曼旗近30 a来土地利用/覆被信息中水域类型的景观格局指数进行了时空组合分析。结果表明,大尺度研究区（8 135.15 km2）1975-1985年水体与湿地斑块的类型面积和数量增加,形状趋于复杂;1985-2005年斑块类型面积和数量大幅减少,形状趋于简单;中尺度研究区（892.74 km2）水体与湿地斑块的类型面积在波动中减小,湿地斑块数量减少和形状简单化的转折期相对较短且滞后于水体。小尺度研究区（110.42 km2）集中了人畜以及上游活动的干扰,水体与湿地斑块仅在个别时期出现,难以连续存在。在各尺度研究区内,河漫滩斑块类型面积变化趋势各异,数量和形状复杂程度都相对稳定;且随着研究区增大形状更加不规则。水域类型的景观格局虽然在不同时空上的动态过程存在差异性,但其发展方向具有相同趋势,发展过程受到气候波动和人类活动干扰的共同影响。