外热带大气扰动对ENSO的影响

合成分析了20世纪80年代以来5次主要的ENSO事件,发现外热带大气扰动通过经向风异常不仅对ENSO的发生起到重要的触发作用,而且影响到ENSO的发展和衰减. 因此,尽管ENSO对外热带大气扰动有影响,但同时外热带大气扰动又与ENSO有相互作用. 在ENSO发生前,南印度洋中纬度为反气旋异常,并通过Rossby波的频散作用加强了澳大利亚附近的反气旋异常;同时,澳大利亚东部沿海的南风异常与菲律宾附近的北风异常在赤道辐合,促进了赤道西太平洋西风异常的爆发和其后ENSO的发生. 在ENSO发生之后,东南太平洋上的气旋异常及相关的南风异常进一步增强了赤道中东太平洋的西风异常和ENSO的发展. 当ENSO达到成熟时,澳大利亚东部的反气旋异常东移,使东南太平洋的气旋异常减弱,南方涛动型环流异常亦随之减弱;同时,阿留申气旋异常加强,尤其是副热带北太平洋的风场异常可加强赤道中东太平洋海水的涌升,使该地区海表温度降低,加速ENSO的消亡.     

巴伦支-喀拉海海温和青藏高原冬季地表气温的年代际联系

基于1961—2017年中国气象局地表气温数据、JRA-55大气再分析数据以及美国国家海洋和大气管理局延伸重建的海温资料,研究了青藏高原冬季地表气温的年代际变化特征及其与海温的可能联系。结果表明：巴伦支-喀拉海冬季海温年代际变化可以激发出向东传播的Rossby波,在西伯利亚对流层高层产生异常的气旋或反气旋性环流,通过影响副极地以及副热带西风急流强度,在青藏高原的南侧产生异常的反气旋或气旋性环流,从而使得青藏高原上空的垂直运动发生变化,导致青藏高原冬季地表气温异常。     

南岭山地湖泊多环芳烃的大气沉降历史记录

高大山脉对大气环流具有阻挡或屏障作用.通过分析测定南岭山地湖泊沉积物中多环芳烃(PAHs)的垂直分布,结合210Pb定年,探讨了大气PAHs污染在南岭山地的沉积历史.结果显示,沉积物中的PAHs主要以低环数化合物为主,其中尤以菲的含量为最高.在剖面深度0～28 cm范围内,总多环芳烃的含量范围为86～778 ng/g.自1970年开始,PAHs含量持续增加,其中20世纪80、90年代中后期PAHs含量略有降低;在2000年后,沉积柱中的PAHs含量呈急剧增加之势态.多环芳烃在大气迁移过程中发生了组成分异,沉积物中相对富集轻组分(低环数)PAHs,与颗粒物结合的大气干湿沉降是PAHs向偏远山地积的主要途径.     

2023年秋季我国气候异常特征及成因分析

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析数据集和中国2400个站的气候观测数据,对2023年秋季我国气候异常特征及其成因进行分析。2023年秋季全国平均气温为1961年以来历史同期最高;全国平均降水量接近常年同期,但空间分布不均且季节内变化明显。秋季欧亚中高纬环流呈“两槽一脊”型,造成我国气温显著偏高;9月呈“两脊一槽”型,巴尔喀什湖低槽活动导致西北地区降水增多;10月呈“两槽一脊”型,导致北方地区偏暖加强;11月呈“西高东低”型,东路冷空气增强,东北地区气温偏低、降水偏多。西太平洋副热带高压总体较常年偏强、偏西,脊线9月异常偏北、10月偏南、11月接近常年。印缅槽9月显著偏强,10—11月接近常年。9月印缅槽偏强与副热带高压异常偏北共同导致了长江中下游以北至黄河下游地区多雨;10—11月东部地区水汽条件整体偏差。9—10月近海台风频繁活动,造成华南地区降水偏多。2023年秋季我国气候受到大气季节内变化的显著作用,热带海温异常的影响不典型。     

Potential Influence of a Developing La Niña on the Sea-Ice Reduction in the Barents–Kara Seas

Abstract

The potential influence of a developing La Niña on Arctic sea-ice annual variability is investigated using both observational data and an atmospheric general circulation model. It is found that during the developing phase of an eastern Pacific (EP) La Niña event in June, July, and August (JJA) and September, October, and November (SON), the sea-ice concentration (SIC) over the Barents–Kara Seas declines more than 15%. The local atmospheric circulation pattern associated with the EP La Niña is characterized as a weak decrease in geopotential height over the Barents–Kara Seas, combined with an anticyclone in the North Atlantic. The corresponding southerly winds push warm waters northward into the key sea-ice reduction region and directly accelerate sea-ice melt. Meanwhile, the abundant moisture contained in the lower troposphere is transported into the Arctic region by winds resulting from the local barotropic structure. The humid atmosphere contributes to both net shortwave and longwave radiation and thus indirectly accelerates the decline in sea ice. Simulations by the European Centre Hamburg Model, version 5.4, are forced by observed sea surface temperature anomalies associated with EP La Niña events. The results of the simulations capture the North Atlantic anticyclone and reproduce the moisture transport, which supports the premise that an EP La Niña plays a crucial role in sea-ice reduction over the Barents–Kara sector from the perspective of atmospheric circulation and net surface heat flux.     

Linking past flood frequencies in Norway to regional atmospheric circulation anomalies

Analysis of two continuous, high‐resolution palaeo‐flood records from southern Norway reveals that the frequency of extreme flood events has changed significantly during the Holocene. During the early and middle Holocene, flood frequency was low; by contrast, it was high over the last 2300 years when the mean flood frequency was about 2.5–3.0 per century. The present regional discharge regime is dominated by spring/summer snowmelt, and our results indicate that the changing flood frequency cannot be explained by local conditions associated with the respective catchments of the two lakes, but rather long‐term variations of solid winter precipitation and related snowmelt. Applying available instrumental winter precipitation data and associated sea‐level pressure re‐analysis data as a modern analogue, we document that atmospheric circulation anomalies, significantly different from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), have some potential in explaining the variability of the two different palaeo‐flood records. Centennial‐scale patterns in shifting flood frequency might be indicative of shifts in atmospheric circulation and shed light on palaeo‐pressure variations in the North Atlantic region, in areas not influenced by the NAO. Major shifts are found at about 2300, 1200 and 200 years ago (cal. a BP). Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Temperature and heat flux spectra in the turbulent buoyancy subrange

The physical nature of motions with scales intermediate between approximately isotropic turbulence and quasi-linear internal gravity waves is not understood at the present time. Such motions play an important role in the energetics of small scales processes, both in the ocean and in the atmosphere, and in vertical transport of heat and constituents. This scale range is currently interpreted either as a saturated gravity waves field or as a buoyancy range of turbulence.We first discuss some distinctive predictions of the classical (Lumley, Phillips) buoyancy range theory, recently improved (Weinstock, Dalaudier and Sidi) to describe potential energy associated with temperature fluctuations. This theory predicts the existence of a spectral gap in the temperature spectra and of an upward mass flux (downward buoyancy and heat fluxes), strongly increasing towards large scales. These predictions are contrasted with an alternate theory, assuming energetically insignificant buoyancy flux, proposed by Holloway.Then we present experimental evidences of such characteristic features obtained in the lower stratosphere with an instrumented balloon. Spectra of temperature, vertical velocity, and cospectra of both, obtained in homogeneous, weakly turbulent regions, are compared with theoretical predictions. These results are strongly consistent with the improved classical buoyancy range theory and support the existence of a significant downward heat flux in the buoyancy range.The theoretical implications of the understanding of this scale range are discussed. Many experimental evidences consistently show the need for an anisotropic theory of the buoyancy range of turbulence.     

Production of N2O,CH4, and CO2 from soils in the tropical savanna during the dry season

Emissions of N₂O, CH₄, and CO₂ from soils at two sites in the tropical savanna of central Venezuela were determined during the dry season in February 1987. Measured arithmetic mean fluxes of N₂O, CH₄, and CO₂ from undisturbed soil plots to the atmosphere were 2.5×10⁹, 4.3×10¹⁰, and 3.0×10¹³ molecules cm^-2 s^-1, respectively. These fluxes were not significantly affected by burning the grass layer. Emissions of N₂O increased fourfold after simulated rainfall, suggesting that production of N₂O in savanna soils during the rainy season may be an important source for atmospheric N₂O. The CH₄ flux measurements indicate that these savanna soils were not a sink, but a small source, for atmospheric methane. Fluxes of CO₂ from savanna soils increased ninefold two hours after simulated rainfall, and remained three times higher than normal after 16 hours. More research is needed to clarify the significance of savannas in the global cycles of N₂O, CH₄, CO₂, and other trace gases, especially during the rainy season.     

Vertical distribution features of atmospheric water vapour in the Po valley area

Two sets of radiosounding measurements, taken at different hours from some stations in the Po Valley area, were examined in order to obtain the values of precipitable waterw and determine the shapes of the vertical distribution curves of absolute humidity. From these curves, we calculated the bestfit values of scale heightsH ₁ andH ₂ in the 0÷5 km and 5÷10 km altitude intervals, respectively. The analysis of the radiosounding data clearly shows that parametersw andH ₁ are closely related to the evolutionary features of the meteorological conditions on synoptic scale and are influenced, to a lesser extent, by the diurnal variations in the atmospheric ground layer. Seasonal average curves of temperature and absolute humidity, as functions of altitude, were also defined from the radiosounding measurements taken at various hours of the day. Moreover, interpolation methods in time (applied to a 12-hour range) and in space (range of about 300 km) were proposed for determining parametersw andH ₁ from the radiosounding measurements taken at different hours from the same station or from different stations at the same hour. Reliability tests, made by comparing the same station or from different stations at the same hour. Reliability tests, made by comparing the values given by the interpolation methods with those directly obtained from the radiosounding measurements, show that these evaluations ofw andH ₁ are affected by standard errors of estimate, which are comparable to the errors usually made in analyzing the radiosounding data.     

多层递推平稳模型

通过对小概率事件历史样本作多层递推迭代，逐次改变引入样本数求取权函数，建立一种平稳统计模式。模式信息容量大，收敛快，克服了常规统计模式的局限性，在灾害性天气客观预报模型应用中取得了明显效果。