INTERNATIONAL HYDROLOGICAL DECADE / WORKING GROUP ON “THE INFLUENCE OF MAN ON THE HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE”

Abstract

Floods, as extreme hydrological phenomena, can be described by more than one correlated characteristic, such as peak, volume and duration. These characteristics should be jointly considered since they are generally not independent. For an ungauged site, univariate regional flood frequency analysis (FA) provides a limited assessment of flood events. A recent study proposed a procedure for regional FA in a multivariate framework. This procedure represents a multivariate version of the index-flood model and is based on copulas and multivariate quantiles. The performance of the proposed procedure was evaluated by simulation. However, the model was not tested on a real-world case study data. In the present paper, practical aspects are investigated jointly for flood peak (Q) and volume (V) of a dataset from the Côte-Nord region in the province of Quebec, Canada. The application of the proposed procedure requires the identification of the appropriate marginal distribution, the estimation of the index flood and the selection of an appropriate copula. The results of the case study show that the regional bivariate FA procedure performed well. This performance depends strongly on the performance of the two univariate models and, more specifically, the univariate model of Q. The results show also the impact of the homogeneity of the region on the performance of the univariate and bivariate models.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis     

Simulating and understanding effects of water level fluctuations on thermal regimes in Miyun Reservoir

ABSTRACT

Water temperature dynamics in a reservoir are affected by its bathymetry, climatic conditions and hydrological processes. Miyun Reservoir in China is a large and deep reservoir that experienced a large water level decline in 1999–2004 due to low rainfall and relatively high water supply to Beijing. To study changes of stratification characteristics in Miyun Reservoir from 1998 to 2011, the one-dimensional year-round lake model MINLAKE2010 was modified by adding a new selective withdraw module and a reservoir hydrological model. Simulation results under three scenarios demonstrated that the new MINLAKE2012 model accurately predicted daily water levels and temperature dynamics during the water level fluctuation period. The water level decline led to 7.6 and 3.8°C increases in the maximum and mean bottom temperatures and about 29 days reduction in the stratification days. These simulation results provide an insight into the thermal evolution of Miyun Reservoir during the planned future water filling process.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Associate editor M. Acreman     

Surveillance of Invasive Bacterial Pathogens and Human Enteric Viruses in Wastewater Final Effluents and Receiving Water Bodies – a Case Study from Durban,South Africa

The physico‐chemical characteristics and microbial composition of the final effluents of two municipal wastewater treatment plants in South Africa were assessed between July and September 2009. The impact of the treated final effluents on the receiving water bodies was also evaluated. The temperature across all sampling points ranged between 14 and 22°C, while pH varied from 6.9 to 7.6. High levels of turbidity, chemical oxygen demand (COD), ammonia, nitrate, nitrite and orthophosphate (PO₄) were observed in many cases. Turbidity of the samples was in the range of 2.2–288.6 NTU. The concentrations (mg/L) of other physico‐chemical parameters are as follows: COD (9.33–289); ammonia (0.000340–45.4); nitrate (0.062–539); nitrite (0.021–22.6); PO₄ (5.3–33.2). The microbial quality of the effluents discharged from the plants did not comply with the limits set by the South African guidelines with respect to pathogens such as Salmonella, Shigella, Escherichia coli, total coliform, faecal coliform, enterococci, faecal streptococci, and viral particles for effluents intended for discharge into receiving watersheds. This study revealed an undesirable impact on the physico‐chemical and microbial qualities of the receiving water bodies as a result of the discharge of inadequately treated effluents from the wastewater treatment facilities. This poses a health risk to several rural communities which rely on the receiving water bodies primarily as their sources of domestic water and recreational purposes. There is therefore a need for the intervention of appropriate regulatory agencies in South Africa to ensure compliance of treatment facilities with wastewater effluent quality standards.     

基于损伤部位向量法的钢框架损伤识别研究

对损伤部位向量(DLV)法作了简单介绍,并用该方法对钢框架进行了损伤识别和损伤定位。该方法假定结构损伤前后为线性,对结构损伤前后柔度矩阵差进行奇异值分解,将奇异值为零所对应的向量,作为静荷载施加在无损结构的测点位置,则应力为零的单元为可能损伤的单元。对3种不同工况的钢框架进行了振动模态试验,用前3阶模态参数构造框架的柔度矩阵,按照DLV法对其进行了损伤识别,识别结果与已知损伤情况相一致。从测试自由度不完备、噪声和振型质量归一化系数这3个方面对识别效果进行了分析,结果表明:当损伤使结构动力特性有微小改变时,使用该方法不易定位损伤,应结合局部损伤识别方法进行判定;当损伤使结构动力特性有较大改变时,该方法能有效识别损伤的单元。DLV方法概念简单,理论明确,不受结构类型的限制,不需要结构的数学模型和模型缩聚或扩展技术,只需获得结构损伤前后的前几个低阶模态参数,即可识别结构一处或多处损伤,实际应用时可操作性强。     

加筋土挡墙变形特性研究进展

从理论研究、模型试验、数值模拟和实地调查四方面评述了国内外加筋土挡墙变形特性的研究成果。理论研究方面分析并归纳了研究方法和挡墙变形计算公式;模型试验和数值模拟介绍了已有的静、动力模型试验成果和常用的数值模拟方法。实地调查介绍了现有调查结论及部分规范、标准规定的位移限值。通过4种方式的研究情况介绍,指出了当前加筋土挡墙变形特性研究中存在的一些不足,并进一步阐述了今后的研究方向。     

首都圈东部地区震群序列性质判定

采用传统方法和数字地震学方法（视应力）,对首都圈东部地区2009-2017年发生的震群序列性质进行分析,分析结果表明：①使用传统方法不能确定震群序列性质,可以利用视应力方法进一步分析,该方法能够反映每个震群应力场的变化特征,可以进行异常性质判别;②通过2种方法的对比分析,可以提高震群序列异常性质判定结果的科学性和可信度,为后续地震活动趋势提供有力的参考依据。对2种方法进行震例检验,可知后续地震一般为中等以上地震,在震群（具有异常性质）发生1-7个月后发震,发震位置在震源区附近。     

陕西省地电阻率观测干扰因素分析研究

运用陕西省2011—2018年地电阻率观测资料,分析得出该省地电阻率观测干扰因素主要有：观测系统故障、自然环境干扰和场地环境干扰;计算观测数据受干扰影响的幅度,得出影响的时间尺度,解析每种类型干扰的表现形式和曲线变化的形态特征,提出干扰抑制的方法及建议,并对干扰影响观测数据变化的物理机制进行分析;阐明地震预报中数据应用的基本工作流程,申明准确识别各类干扰、寻求解决干扰问题途径以及探索新的干扰数据处理方法的重要意义。     

2016年2月11日新疆新源5.0级地震发震构造及房屋震害特点

2016年2月11日新疆新源县发生MS5.0地震,极震区烈度为Ⅵ度。综合现场调查及地震等震线分布情况,初步判定本次地震的发震构造为阿吾拉勒山南缘断裂。对灾区乡镇的房屋进行调查,发现部分土木结构房屋未进行过抗震设计,在本次地震中破坏较为严重;部分砖木结构房屋地基未按照规范施工,在震动荷载作用下出现不均匀沉降,致使房屋墙体被拉裂、倾斜。数月前灾区发生过强降雨、冻融灾害,加之多次地震灾害叠加,造成本次地震房屋破坏率高、房屋破坏程度重。     

钢管混凝土框架-混凝土核心筒减震结构振动台试验研究

某超高层钢管混凝土框架-混凝土核心筒结构因指标超限在设计中采用了耗能减震技术,为了检验该减震结构的抗震性能,制作了1/35的缩尺模型,通过在钢管混凝土框架设置阻尼器或不设置阻尼器,进行模拟地震振动台对比试验,研究了模型结构的动力特性和不同烈度地震作用下的加速度、位移和应变响应。研究结果表明:地震作用下,该钢管混凝土框架-混凝土核心筒减震结构与钢管混凝土框架-混凝土核心筒结构相比,位移、加速度和应变响应均有一定程度的降低;罕遇地震作用下,通过设置耗能减震构件,层间位移角最大值从超过规范要求的1/84减低至满足规范要求的1/130,表明该减震结构具有更优良的抗震性能。     

基于《中国震例》的地下流体异常特征统计分析

基于《中国震例》记录的1966年以来的震例, 按异常测项和变化类型分类统计了与地下流体相关的异常数量与震级、 震中距、 持续时间的相关性。 结果显示: 中国大陆M6.5以下地震的地下流体异常数量与震级无相关性, M6.5以上地震异常数量随震级的增大而增多, 二者呈指数关系; 地下流体异常多集中于距震中300 km范围内, 且各测项间无明显区别, 异常数量与震中距之间呈Gamma分布特征; 地下流体异常时空演化主要表现为 “向震中收缩”、 “构造控制”和“相对集中”三种典型特征, 震前异常数量主要表现为“持续增长”型和“先增后减”型两类, 且以“先增后减”型居多。 本文统计得到的地下流体前兆信息特征, 可为今后地震预报实践提供一定参考。