Development of a skill assessment tool for the Korea operational oceanographic system

A standard skill assessment(SA) tool was developed and implemented to evaluate the performance of operational forecast models in the Korea operational oceanographic system.The SA tool provided a robust way to assess model skill in the system by comparing predictions and observations,and involved the computation of multiple skill metrics including correlation and error skills.User-and system-based acceptance criteria of skill metrics were applied to determine whether predictions were acceptable for the system.To achieve this,the tool produced a time series comparison plot,a skill score table,and an advanced summarized diagram to effectively demonstrate the multiple skill scores.Moreover,the SA was conducted to evaluate both atmospheric and hydrodynamic forecast variables.For the atmospheric variables,acceptable error criteria were preferable to acceptable correlation criteria over short timescales,since the mean square error overwhelmed the observation variance.Conversely,for the hydrodynamic variables,acceptable root mean square percentage error(e.g.,p erms) criteria were preferable to acceptable error(e.g.,erms) criteria owing to the spatially variable tidal intensity around the Korean Peninsula.Furthermore,the SA indicated that predetermined acceptance error criteria were appropriate to satisfy a target central frequency(fc) for which errors fell within the specified limits(i.e.,the fc equals 70%).     

海冰对北极海冰边缘区大洋光学观测的影响评估

Diffuse attenuation coefficient(DAC) of sea water is an important parameter in ocean thermodynamics and biology, reflecting the absorption capability of sea water in different layers. In the Arctic Ocean, however, sea ice affects the radiance/irradiance measurements of upper ocean, which results in obvious errors in the DAC calculation. To better understand the impacts of sea ice on the ocean optics observations, a series of in situ experiments were carried out in the summer of 2009 in the southern Beaufort Sea. Observational results show that the profiles of spectral diffuse attenuation coefficients of seawater near ice cover within upper surface of 50 m were not contaminated by the sea ice with a solar zenith angle of 55°, relative azimuth angle of 110°≤φ≤115° and horizontal distance between the sensors and ice edge of greater than 25 m. Based on geometric optics theory, the impact of ice cover could be avoided by adjusting the relative solar azimuth angle in a particular distance between the instrument and ice. Under an overcast sky, ice cover being 25 m away from sensors did not affect the profiles of spectral DACs within the upper 50 m either. Moreover, reliable spectral DACs of seawater could be obtained with sensors completely covered by sea ice.     

贻贝对麻痹性贝类毒素的蓄积代谢研究进展

麻痹性贝类毒素(paralytic shellfish toxins,PSTs)能够导致贝类、鱼类等海洋生物染毒或死亡,危害海洋生态安全及人类健康.其中,贻贝具有强蓄积性特点,在国外可作为PSTs的指示性生物.近年来,我国因食用贻贝造成多起PSTs中毒事件成为安全关注重点,因此急需弄清其风险形成机理.本文通过综述我国近...     

The anatomy of a disaster, an overview of Hurricane Katrina and New Orleans

Hurricane Katrina created the one of the worst natural disaster in the history of the United States, resulting in over 1600 fatalities and $30B in direct economic losses in southern Louisiana. The Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines experienced the highest surge level recorded in North America and Katrina-generated waves in the Gulf of Mexico that equaled the highest previously measured by NOAA buoys. What happened in New Orleans epitomizes the risk of living below sea level in a coastal city, depending on structures that were the result of considerable compromise and piecemeal funding and construction. The Interagency Performance Evaluation Task Force was established to examine the performance of the New Orleans and southeast Louisiana hurricane protection system and provide real-time input to the repairs and rebuilding of the system. In addition to this atypical just-in-time forensic analysis, the task force examined the risk of living in New Orleans prior to and following the repairs to the hurricane protection system. Much of the forensic analysis depended on modeling and simulation of hurricane surge and waves. With virtually all measurement instruments swept away by Katrina, only models and high-water marks were available to recreate the conditions that the structures experienced during the storm. Because of the complexities of the region and the processes involved, simulation of hurricane surge and waves required many fresh ideas and new approaches and these topics, along with new concepts for future planning and design, are the focus of this special issue. Yet, the need to influence the repair and rebuilding of the damaged structures prior to the next hurricane season (roughly 9 months) dictated using existing computational tools that were ready to go. The same modeling and simulation approach was put to work to define the surge and wave hazard New Orleans faces for the future. To put this important body of work in context, this paper provides a broad overview of the entire scope of work of the task force and summarizes its principal findings.     

Understanding marine ecosystem based management: A literature review

Ecosystem based management takes into account the interconnectedness and interdependent nature of ecosystem components and emphasizes the importance of ecosystem structures and functions which provide a range of services. The concept has now been adopted by many international agreements and national governments and is in the process of being implemented. This paper seeks to review the literature and to analyze the understanding of the subject. The term is defined and its implementation in fisheries and for all marine uses is analyzed. It has been concluded that to understand marine ecosystem based management one must consider ecosystems as complex adaptive systems which can show changes at higher levels from actions and processes occurring at lower levels. Recognizing that humans are part of these complex adaptive systems is vital in that their actions along with other processes can lead to transformations in ecosystem functioning. This recognition is also important to show how society can sustainably exploit these resources and that the inclusion of all stakeholders in the management process is necessary to legitimize the process. The uses of the precautionary principle along with adaptive management are seen to be useful tools in implementing these insights into the management of natural resources. Finally, the need for reducing consumption of fish is considered.     

厦门国家级珍稀海洋物种自然保护区文昌鱼(Branchiostoma belcheri)种群健康评价

利用2009-2010年四个季度月用底栖生物抓斗式采样器捕获的文昌鱼样品,从其资源分布、年龄结构、生物学和生态学特征等方面对厦门国家级珍稀海洋物种自然保护区文昌鱼的种群健康状况进行评价研究.结果表明:(1)文昌鱼种群资源分布衰减趋势明显,只在黄厝—前埔海区、小嶝岛—角屿海区和南线—十八线海区3个核心区还有分布,但资源密度低,分布范围狭小,而在鳄鱼屿实验区未能发现.(2)文昌鱼体重与体长之间关系:W=6.6895×10-4L3.1818;体长与体质量生长方程分别为:厶=65.63[1-e-0.68(t+032)],Wt=404.62[1-e-0.68(t+032)]3.1818;夏季、冬季航次的优势体长组分别为25-35mm和35-45mm,优势体重组分别为25-50mg和50-100mg;秋季低龄鱼较多,而冬季高龄鱼比例较高.(3)采用ELEFAN Ⅰ技术分析了厦门文昌鱼的Von Bertalanffy生长参数K、L∞、总死亡系数Z、自然死亡系数M和开发率E,发现其生长参数K值较大,自然死亡系数较高,开发率较大(0.69).综之,厦门自然保护区内的文昌鱼种群健康状况整体不佳,应注意资源保护,加强保护文昌鱼栖息地的底质和水质以及防止过度捕捞以实现其资源可持续利用.     

烟台港倾倒区表层沉积物重金属的富集特征及风险评价

分析了2001~2011年烟台港倾倒区表层沉积物中6种重金属的含量及时空分布特征,采用地累积指数(Igeo)和潜在生态风险指数(ERI)对重金属富集现状及潜在生态风险进行评价。结果显示：历次调查重金属含量均较低且空间分布差异小,与黄海背景值相比, Cd和Cu出现一定程度的富集。ERI评价表明2011年倾倒区潜在生态风险性较低,年际变化顺序为：2008年＞2006年＞2009年＞2011年＞2001年, Cd和Hg是近年来的主要风险因子。     

滨海新区温带风暴潮灾害风险评估研究

建立了一套基于非结构三角网、适用于滨海新区的高分辨率风暴潮漫滩数值模式,在陆地区域分辨率达到50~80 m,对两次典型的温带风暴潮进行模拟得到满意结果。计算了塘沽站19 a平均天文高潮值并根据对历史天气过程的分析,选取制定了4个强度的天气系统,而后模拟得到不同强度下滨海新区的温带风暴潮最大淹没范围。综合考虑风暴潮淹没风险与承灾体脆弱性制作出滨海新区温带风暴潮灾害风险图。结果表明:大部分地区都存在风暴潮灾害风险,沿海地区风险大于内陆,其中天津新港、临港工业区、海河北岸地区、大港地区南部的灾害风险最大。     

Effect of Fly Ash on Frost-Resistance and Chloride Ions Diffusion Properties of Marine Concrete

It is necessary to pay more attention to the durability of concrete undergoing freeze-thaw cycles and seawater attack simultaneously.Investigated are the effects of water-binder ratio,fly ash (FA) contents and air-entraining agent on resistance to frost and chloride diffusion of marine concrete blended with FA in natural seawater.The results show that fly ash does not improve the frost resistance of concrete but can improve its resistance to chloride diffusion by addition of less than 30%.The resistance to frost and chloride diffusion of FA concrete can be improved with the decrease of water-binder ratio,and FA may improve both of them simultaneously only being mixed with air-entraining agent.A ratio (named as R) of the frost-resisting durability factor to chloride diffusion coefficient can be used to evaluate the durability of marine concrete.Scanning electron microscope (SEM) analyses are consistent with the evaluations by the value of R.     

锦州9-3油田海域环境现状及其评价

1 引言 石油,作为现代社会的主要能源,在全球经济迅速发展和人口激增的情况下,世界范围内的供求在不断增长,海洋石油勘探开发规模也在不断扩大.海洋油气开发已成为我国油气战略资源的主要来源之一.