Comments on ‘A comparative study of ANN and neuro-fuzzy for the prediction of dynamic constant of rockmass’

Singh et al (2005) examined the potential of the ANN and neuro-fuzzy systems application for the prediction of dynamic constant of rockmass. However, the model proposed by them has some drawbacks according to fuzzy logic principles. This discussion will focus on the main fuzzy logic principles which authors and potential readers should take into consideration.     

Seismic Hazard Analysis — Quo vadis?

The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.

Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making.     

Structural elements of the Makran region, Oman sea and their potential relevance to tsunamigenisis

The character of convergence along the Arabian–Iranian plate boundary changes radically eastward from the Zagros ranges to the Makran region. This appears to be due to collision of continental crust in the west, in contrast to subduction of oceanic crust in the east. The Makran subduction zone with a length of about 900 km display progressively older and highly deformed sedimentary units northward from the coast, together with an increase in elevation of the ranges. North of the Makran ranges are large subsiding basins, flanked to the north by active volcanoes. Based on 2D seismic reflection data obtained in this study, the main structural provinces and elements in the Gulf of Oman include: (i) the structural elements on the northeastern part of the Arabian Plate and, (ii) the Offshore Makran Accretionary Complex. Based on detailed analysis of these data on the northeastern part of the Arabian Plate five structural provinces and elements—the Musendam High, the Musendam Peneplain, the Musendam Slope, the Dibba Zone, and the Abyssal Plain have been identified. Further, the Offshore Makran Accretionary Complex shown is to consist Accretionary Prism and the For-Arc Basin, while the Accretionary Prism has been subdivided into the Accretionary Wedge and the Accreted/Colored Mélange. Lastly, it is important to note that the Makran subduction zone lacks the trench. The identification of these structural elements should help in better understanding the seismicity of the Makran region in general and the subduction zone in particular. The 1945 magnitude 8.1 tsunamigenic earthquake of the Makran and some other historical events are illustrative of the coastal region’s vulnerability to future tsunami in the area, and such data should be of value to the developing Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System.     

地震折射波的虚拟射线理论及其应用

本文提出了一种地震折射液的虚拟射线理论,根据该理论,只要已知地表层的速度,即可直接由折射波信息提取地震参数,从而可实现折射界面的反演。 文中通过实际介质模型的计算机实验结果,验证了该理论的正确性。     

Deformation Patterns of an Accretionary Wedge in the Transition Zone from Subduction to Collision Offshore Southwestern Taiwan

Swath bathymetry data and seismic reflection profiles have been used to investigate details of the deformation pattern in the area offshore southwestern Taiwan where the Luzon subduction complex encroaches on the passive Chinese continental margin. Distinctive fold-and-thrust structures of the convergent zone and horst-and-graben structures of the passive margin are separated by a deformation front that extends NNW-ward from the eastern edge of the Manila Trench to the foot of the continental slope. This deformation front gradually turns into a NNE–SSW trending direction across the continental slope and the Kaoping Shelf, and connects to the frontal thrusts of the mountain belt on land Taiwan. However, the complex Penghu submarine canyon system blurs the exact location of the deformation front and nature of many morphotectonic features offshore SW Taiwan. We suggest that the deformation front offshore SW Taiwan does not appear as a simple structural line, but is characterized by a series of N–S trending folds and thrusts that terminate sequentially in an en-echelon pattern across the passive Chinese continental slope. A number of NE–SW trending lineaments cut across the fold-and-thrust structures of the frontal accretionary wedge and exhibit prominent dextral displacement indicative of the lateral expulsion of SW Taiwan. One of the prominent lineaments, named the Yung-An lineament, forms the southeastern boundary of the upper part of the Penghu submarine canyon, and has conspicuous influence over the drainage pattern of the canyon     

The Agulhas Ridge, South Atlantic: The Peculiar Structure of a Fracture Zone

The Agulhas Ridge is a prominent topographic feature that parallels the Agulhas-Falkland Fracture Zone (AFFZ). Seismic reflection and wide angle/refraction data have led to the classification of this feature as a transverse ridge. Changes in spreading rate and direction associated with ridge jumps, combined with asymmetric spreading within the Agulhas Basin, modified the stress field across the fracture zone. Moreover, passing the Agulhas Ridge’s location between 80 and 69 Ma, the Bouvet and Shona Hotspots may have supplied excess material to this part of the AFFZ thus altering the ridge’s structure. The low crustal velocities and overthickened crust of the northern Agulhas Ridge segment indicate a possible continental affinity that suggests it may be formed by a small continental sliver, which was severed off the Maurice Ewing Bank during the opening of the South Atlantic. In early Oligocene times the Agulhas Ridge was tectono-magmatically reactivated, as documented by the presence of basement highs disturbing and disrupting the sedimentary column in the Cape Basin. We consider the Discovery Hotspot, which distributes plume material southwards across the AAFZ, as a source for the magmatic material.     

Imaging of Buried Archaeological Materials: The Reflection Properties of Archaeological Wood

Effective marine archaeological site management demands detailed information on not only the spatial distribution of artefacts but also the degradation state of the materials present. Although sonar methods have frequently been used in an attempt to detect buried wooden shipwrecks they are currently unable to indicate their degradation state. To assess the sensitivity of acoustic measurements to changes in the degradation state of such material, and hence the potential for sonars to quantify degradation, laboratory measurements of compressional wave velocity, as well as bulk density for oak and pine samples, in varying states of decay, were undertaken. These data enabled the calculation of theoretical reflection coefficients for such materials buried in various marine sediments. As wood degrades, the reflection coefficients become more negative, resulting in the hypothesis that the more degraded wood becomes, the easier it should be to detect. Typical reflection coefficients of the order of −0.43 and −0.52 for the most degraded oak and pine samples in sand are predicted. Conversely, for wood exposed to seawater the predicted reflection coefficients are large and positive for undegraded material (0.35 for oak, 0.18 for pine) and decrease to zero or slightly below for the most degraded samples. This indicates that exposed timbers, when heavily degraded, can be acoustically transparent and so undetectable by acoustic methods. Corroboration of these experimental results was provided through comparison with high resolution seismic reflection data that has been acquired over two shipwrecks.     

Seismic Response Control of Offshore Platform Structures with Shape Memory Alloy Dampers

In this study, the seismic response control of offshore platform structures with Shape Memory Alloy (SMA) dampers is investigated. A new SMA damper and its restoring force medel are introduced for the calculation of seismic response reduction. Based on an actual platform structure and its mechanical medel, the parameters which may affect the rate of shock absorption are analyzed, such as the number, position and characteristics of the SMA dampers and the condition of the site where the platform is located. The results show that the SMA damper is an effective control device for offshore platforms and satisfactory control can be achieved by proper selection of the parameters.     

智能潜器的集成仿真系统

本文介绍了智能潜器集成仿真系统的硬、软件结构．通过这一系统所展示的水下虚拟仿真环境能够在研究和开发智能潜器的控制体系结构、潜器载体的水动力学、信息融合和目标识别等工作中发挥巨大作用     

Geophysical Evidence of a Relict Oceanic Crust in the Southwestern Scotia Sea

The southwestern part of the Scotia Sea, at the corner of the Shackleton Fracture Zone with the South Scotia Ridge has been investigated, combining marine magnetic profiles, multichannel seismic reflection data, and satellite-derived gravity anomaly data. From the integrated analysis of data, we identified the presence of the oldest part of the crust in this sector, which tentative age is older than anomaly C10 (28.7 Ma). The area is surrounded by structural features clearly imaged by seismic data, which correspond to gravity lows in the satellite-derived map, and presents a rhomboid-shaped geometry. Along its southern boundary, structural features related to convergence and possible incipient subduction beneath the continental South Scotia Ridge have been evidenced from the seismic profile. We interpret this area, now located at the edge of the south-western Scotia Sea, as a relict of ocean-like crust formed during an earlier, possibly diffuse and disorganized episode of spreading at the first onset of the Drake Passage opening. The successive episode of organized seafloor spreading responsible for the opening of the Drake Passage that definitively separated southern South America from the Antarctic Peninsula, instigated ridge-push forces that can account for the subduction-related structures found along the western part of the South Scotia Ridge. This seafloor accretion phase occurred from 27 to about 10 Ma, when spreading stopped in the western Scotia Sea Ridge, as resulted from the identification of the marine magnetic anomalies.