Application of linear and nonlinear techniques in river flow forecasting in the Kilombero River basin,Tanzania / Application de techniques linéaires et non-linéaires à la prévision des débits dans le bassin de la Rivière Kilombero,en Tanzanie

Abstract

Modelling of the rainfall–runoff transformation process and routing of river flows in the Kilombero River basin and its five sub-catchments within the Rufiji River basin in Tanzania was undertaken using three system (black-box) models—a simple linear model, a linear perturbation model and a linear varying gain factor model—in their linear transfer function forms. A lumped conceptual model—the soil moisture accounting and routing model—was also applied to the sub-catchments and the basin. The HEC-HMS model, which is a distributed model, was applied only to the entire Kilombero River basin. River discharge, rainfall and potential evaporation data were used as inputs to the appropriate models and it was observed that sometimes the system models performed better than complex hydrological models, especially in large catchments, illustrating the usefulness of using simple black-box models in datascarce situations.     

Ages of sediment-hosted Himalayan Pb–Zn–Cu–Ag polymetallic deposits in the Lanping basin,China: Re–Os geochronology of molybdenite and Sm–Nd dating of calcite

The Lanping basin is a significant Pb–Zn–Cu–Ag mineralization belt of the Sanjiang Tethyan metallogenic province in China. Over 100 thrust-controlled, sediment-hosted, Himalayan base metal deposits have been discovered in this basin, including the largest sandstone-hosted Pb–Zn deposit in the world (Jinding), and several Cu ± Ag ± Co deposits (Baiyangping, Baiyangchang and Jinman). These deposits, with total reserves of over 16.0 Mt Pb + Zn, 0.6 Mt Cu, and 7000 t Ag, are mainly hosted in Meso-Cenozoic mottled clastic rocks, and strictly controlled by two Cenozoic thrust systems developed in the western and eastern segments of the Lanping basin.To define the metallogenic history of the study area, we dated nine calcite samples associated with copper sulfides from the Jinman Cu deposit by the Sm–Nd method and five molybdenite samples from the Liancheng Cu–Mo deposit by the Re–Os method. The calcite Sm–Nd age for the Jinman deposit (58 ± 5 Ma) and the molybdenite Re–Os age for the Liancheng deposit (48 ± 2 Ma), together with previously published chronological data, demonstrate (1) the Cu–Ag mineralization in the western Lanping basin mainly occurred in three episodes (i.e., ∼56–54, 51–48, and 31–29 Ma), corresponding to the main- and late-collisional stages of the Indo–Asian orogeny; and (2) the Pb–Zn–Ag (±Cu) mineralization in the eastern Lanping basin lacked precise and direct dating, however, the apatite fission track ages of several representative deposits (21 ± 4 Ma to 32 ± 5 Ma) may offer some constraints on the mineralization age.     

Application of an improved semi-Lagrangian procedure to fully-nonlinear simulation of sloshing in non-wall-sided tanks

The semi-Lagrangian procedure is widely used for updating the fully-nonlinear free surface in the time domain. However, this procedure is only available to cases when the body surface is vertical near the waterline. Present study introduces an improved semi-Lagrangian procedure which removes this ‘vertical-wall’ limitation. Coupling with the boundary element method, the improved semi-Lagrangian procedure is applied to the simulation of fully-nonlinear sloshing waves in non-wall-sided tanks. From the result comparison with the open source CFD software OpenFOAM, it is confirmed that this numerical scheme could guarantee a sufficient accuracy. Further series studies on 2D and 3D fully-nonlinear sloshing waves in wedged tanks are performed. Featured phenomena are observed which are distinct from those in wall-sided tanks.     

Diagenetic evolution of the upper Cretaceous limestone and sandstone exhumed reservoirs in the western Basque–Cantabrian Basin,North Spain

The Basque–Cantabrian Basin (NE Spain) has been considered one of the most interesting areas for hydrocarbon exploration in the Iberian Peninsula since the 60th to 70th of last century. This basin is characterized by the presence of numerous outcrops of tar sands closely associated with fractures and Triassic diapirs. The aims of this work is to establish the diagenetic evolution of the Upper Cretaceous reservoir rocks with special emphasis in the emplacement of oil and their impact on reservoir quality. The studied rocks are constituted of carbonates and sandstones that contain massive quantities of bitumen filling vugs and fractures.Petrographic results indicate that the carbonate rocks from Maestu outcrops are bioclastic grainstones and wackestones, whereas the tar sandstones from Atauri and Loza outcrops are dominated by quartzarenites and subordinated subarkoses. The paragenetic sequence of the main diagenetic phases and processes include, pyrite, bladed and drusy calcite cement, calcite overgrowths, silicification of bioclasts and microcrystalline rhombic dolomite cement, and first stage of oil emplacement, blocky calcite cement, coarse crystalline calcite cement, calcitized dolomite, calcite veins, saddle dolomite and stylolites filled by the second phase of oil entrance. Together with the above mentioned diagenetic alterations, the arenites are affected by early kaolinitization of feldspars and the scarce formation of clay rim and epimatrix of illite. All sandstones and dolomitized carbonate rocks show high intercrystalline and intergranular porosity which is full by biodegraded hydrocarbons (solid bitumen). The biodegradation affects alkanes, isoprenoids and partially hopanes and steranes saturated hydrocarbons. Aromatics hydrocarbons, like naphthalenes, phenanthrenes, dibenzothiophenes and triaromatics are also affected by biodegradation. Results indicate that the first HC emplacement corresponds to early stage of calcite and dolomite cementation, and the second and more important emplacement is related to fracturation processes resulting in the formation of excellent reservoirs.     

Ultimate Load Capacity of Offshore Pipeline with Arbitrary Shape Corrosion Defects

A set of generalized solutions are proposed for estimating ultimate load capacity of pipeline with arbitrary corrosion shapes subjected to combined internal pressure, axial force and bending moment. Isotropic and anisotropic material characteristics in longitudinal and circumferential direction of pipeline are also considered in the proposed equations. Simplified numerical method is used to solve the generalized expressions. The comparisons of numerical results based generalized solutions and full-scale experimental results are carried out. The predicted results agree reasonably well with the experiment results. Meanwhile, the effects of corrosion shapes and locations on the ultimate load capacity are studied.     

Innovation for sustainable energy from a pro-poor perspective

The development and transfer of clean energy technologies to achieve universal energy access is challenging due to the inherent complexities of the energy sector, and the energy governance and financial systems in developing economies. Innovation is an essential part of successfully addressing these difficulties. Duplicating the energy infrastructure models of developed countries will not be sufficient to meet the needs of poor consumers. To the extent that innovation can accelerate energy access, it is important to understand the specific types of innovations that are necessary and how they might be facilitated. The general features of existing international clean energy innovation systems, which are predominantly driven by the markets and emissions reduction mechanisms of developed and rapidly growing emerging economies, are reviewed and the alignment of these systems to the innovation processes required to extend energy access globally is evaluated. Drawing on the innovation policy literature, the attributes of effective international and domestic energy innovation systems that are pro-poor and the associated policy approaches are identified.     

Scientists’ framing of the ocean science–policy interface

Scientists’ ideas, beliefs, and discourses form the frames that shape their choices about which research to pursue, their approaches to collaboration and communicating results, and how they evaluate research outputs and outcomes. To achieve ocean sustainability, there are increasing calls for new levels of engagement and collaboration between scientists and policy-makers; scientists’ willingness to engage depends on their current and evolving frames. Here, I present results about how scientists involved in diverse fields of ocean research perceived their role as scientists working at or near the ocean science–policy interface and how this related to their perceptions regarding ocean research priorities. The survey of 2187 physical, ecological and social scientists from 94 countries showed that scientists held different perspectives about their appropriate level of engagement at the ocean science–policy interface and the relative primacy of science versus politics in formulating ocean policy. Six clusters of scientists varied in their frames; three clusters accounted for 94% of the sample. Of 67 research questions identified from 22 research prioritization and horizon scanning exercises, the top eight were shared among all three clusters, showing consistency in research priorities across scientists with different framings of their role at the science–policy interface. Five focused on the mechanisms and effects of global change on oceans, two focused on data collection and management for long-term ocean monitoring, and one focused on the links between biodiversity and ecological function at different scales. The results from this survey demonstrated that scientists’ framings of the role of ocean science at the science–policy interface can be quantified in surveys, that framing varies among scientists, and that research priorities vary according to the framings.     

基于HYSPLIT4的一次四川盆地夏季暴雨水汽路径和源地分析

利用四川省156站气象资料、全球同化系统(GDAS)资料,引入拉格朗日混合单粒子轨道模型(HYSPLIT4),定量分析了2013年7月7—11日四川盆地西部暴雨的水汽输送情况。结果表明：此次暴雨过程的水汽主要来自950和850 hPa,并且两者的水汽路径和来源有着显著差别。后向追踪1天,950和850 hPa的水汽来源大值区都出现在四川盆地区;追踪3天,950 hPa的水汽来源大值区仍然在四川盆地附近,但是850 hPa上则追踪到孟加拉湾东部;追踪到9天时,950 hPa的水汽主要来源出现在阿拉伯海到我国南海地区,850 hPa上则追踪到索马里半岛东部。总体上950 hPa的水汽输送路径有五条,其中两条是北方路径,另外三条为南方路径。850 hPa的水汽输送路径有两条,一条是北方路径,另一条是南方路径。定量分析指出,950 hPa的水汽源地主要有四个,其中阿拉伯海—孟加拉湾地区的水汽输送贡献率最大（44.1%）,中南半岛—南海地区的水汽贡献率次之（33.1%）,巴尔喀什湖地区（15.7%）和贝加尔湖地区（7.1%）的水汽贡献率相对较弱。850 hPa上的水汽源地也有四个,其中从阿拉伯海地区,沿南亚夏季风爆发路径而来的暖湿空气最重要（89.4%）,其次从西北部巴尔喀什湖—贝加尔湖地区而来的干冷空气相对较弱（6.3%）,而来自孟加拉湾（3%）和局地（1.3%）的水汽则非常少。     

Origin and anatomy of two different types of mass–transport complexes: A 3D seismic case study from the northern South China Sea margin

Integration of 2D and 3D seismic data from the Qiongdongnan Basin along the northwestern South China Sea margin has enabled the seismic stratigraphy, seismic geomorphology and emplacement mechanisms of eight separate, previously undocumented, mass–transport complexes (MTCs) to be characterized. These eight MTCs can be grouped into two types:(1) Localized detached MTCs, which are confined to submarine canyons and cover hundreds of km², consist of a few tens of km³ remobilized sediments and show long striations at their base. They resulted from small-scale mass-wasting processes induced by regional tectonic events and gravitational instabilities on canyon margins.(2) Regional attached MTCs, which occur within semi-confined or unconfined settings and are distributed roughly perpendicular to the strike of the regional slope. Attached MTCs occupy hundreds to thousands of km² and are composed of tens to hundreds of km³ of remobilized sediments. They contain headwall escarpments, translated blocks, remnant blocks, pressure ridges, and basal striations and cat-claw grooves. They were created by large-scale mass-wasting processes triggered by high sedimentation rates, slope oversteepening by shelf-edge deltas, and seismicity.Our results show that MTCs may act as both lateral and top seals for underlying hydrocarbon reservoirs and could create MTC-related stratigraphic traps that represent potential drilling targets on continental margins, helping to identify MTC-related hydrocarbon traps.     

The evolution of rifting on the volcanic margin of the Pelotas Basin and the contextualization of the Paraná–Etendeka LIP in the separation of Gondwana in the South Atlantic

The Pelotas Basin is the classical example of a volcanic passive margin displaying large wedges of seaward-dipping reflectors (SDR). The SDR fill entirely its rifts throughout the basin, characterizing the abundant syn-rift magmatism (133–113 Ma). The Paraná–Etendeka Large Igneous Province (LIP), adjacent to west, constituted the pre-rift magmatism (134–132 Ma). The interpretation of ultra-deep seismic lines showed a very different geology from the adjacent Santos, Campos and Espírito Santo Basins, which constitute examples of magma-poor passive margins. Besides displaying rifts totally filled by volcanic rocks, diverse continental crustal domains were defined in the Pelotas Basin, such as an outer domain, probably constituted by highly stretched and permeated continental igneous crust, and a highly reflective lower crust probably reflecting underplating.The analysis of rifting in this portion of the South Atlantic is based on seismic interpretation and on the distribution of regional linear magnetic anomalies. The lateral accretion of SDR to the east towards the future site of the breakup and the temporal relationship between their rift and sag geometries allows the reconstitution of the evolution of rifting in the basin. Breakup propagated from south to north in three stages (130–127.5; 127.5–125; 125–113 Ma) physically separated by oceanic fracture zones (FZ). The width of the stretched, thinned and heavily intruded continental crust also showed a three-stage increase in the same direction and at the same FZ. Consequently, the Continental-Oceanic Boundary (COB) shows three marked shifts, from west to east, from south to north, resulting into rift to margin segmentation. Rifting also propagated from west to east, in the direction of the final breakup, in each of the three segments defined. The importance of the Paraná–Etendeka LIP upon the overall history of rupturing and breakup of Western Gondwanaland seems to have been restricted in time and in space only to the Pelotas Basin.