任意面积储量计算方法研究

这里介绍了一种任意面积储量计算方法，该方法的核心技术是充分利用现有的石油勘探、开发数据库资料，由计算机来自动确定任意含油面积，进而通过容积法来计算石油储量。该方法解决了用求积仪来求取面积时的大量手工操作，在储量计算过程中自动化程度高，具有方便、灵活、实用的特点。     

Turbulence Statistics Inside and Over Forest: Influence on Footprint Prediction

Observations of wind statistics within and above a Scots pine forest are comparedwith those predicted from an analytical second-order closure model. The roughnesssublayer (RSL) effects, and the influence of stability on similarity functions, arestudied using observations. The commonly accepted forms of similarity functionsdescribe the influence of diabatic effects above the RSL well. According to earlierstudies they are expected also to apply within the RSL. As an exception, the averagewind speed normalised with friction velocity was found to be invariant with stabilityclose to the canopy top under unstable conditions. Lagrangian stochastic trajectorysimulations were used to evaluate the influence of canopy turbulence profiles onfootprint prediction. The main uncertainty was found to arise from parameterisationof the random forcing term in the Lagrangian velocity equation. The influence ofdiabatic conditions was studied, and it was found that thermal stability affectssignificantly the footprint function above the forest canopy, but significantuncertainty exists because of uncertainties in the formulation of stability functions.     

Comparison of the Langrangian Footprint

We compare flux and concentration footprint estimates of athree-dimensional Lagrangian stochastic dispersion modelapplying backward trajectories with the results of ananalytical footprint model by Kormann and Meixner.The comparison is performed for varying stability regimesof the surface layer as well as for different measurementheights. In general, excellent correspondence is found.     

UNIVERSALITY OF THE LAGRANGIAN VELOCITY STRUCTURE FUNCTION CONSTANT (C0) ACROSS DIFFERENT KINDS OF TURBULENCE

In this paper, we evaluate the Lagrangian velocity structure function constant, C0, in the inertial subrange by comparing experimental diffusion data and simulation results obtained with applicable Lagrangian stochastic models. We find in several different flows (grid turbulence, laboratory boundary-layer flow and the atmospheric surface layer under neutral stratification) the value for C0 is 3.0 ± 0.5. We also identify the reasons responsible for earlier studies having not reached the present result.     

A Simple Parameterisation for Flux Footprint Predictions

Flux footprint functions estimate the location and relative importance of passive scalar sources influencing flux measurements at a given receptor height. These footprint estimates strongly vary in size, depending on receptor height, atmospheric stability, and surface roughness. Reliable footprint calculations from, e.g., Lagrangian stochastic models or large-eddy simulations are computationally expensive and cannot readily be computed for long-term observational programs. To facilitate more accessible footprint estimates, a scaling procedure is introduced for flux footprint functions over a range of stratifications from convective to stable, and receptor heights ranging from near the surface to the middle of the boundary layer. It is shown that, when applying this scaling procedure, footprint estimates collapse to an ensemble of similar curves. A simple parameterisation for the scaled footprint estimates is presented. This parameterisation accounts for the influence of the roughness length on the footprint and allows for a quick but precise algebraic footprint estimation.     

非静力中尺度模式的现状及发展趋势

随着高性能计算机与大气探测技术的发展 ,使得非静力中尺度数值预报模式的业务化成为可能 ,世界上主要的气象中心最近几年纷纷发展非静力中尺度模式 ,并取得了重要进展 ,这其中尤以英国气象局新发展的非静力通用模式最为突出。基于此 ,介绍了近年来国际上发达国家的非静力中尺度预报模式的现状及发展方向 ,并对该类模式设计中应注意的一些问题进行了阐述     

‘Committing to Place’ at the Local Scale: the potential of youth education programs for promoting community participation in regional natural resource management

Emerging approaches to environmental governance require a greater level of community participation than did previous approaches in which these responsibilities largely rested with government agencies. There is consequently a need for increased engagement with NRM among a broad community sector. This paper examines initiatives by two prominent government agencies, the Murray–Darling Basin Commission (MDBC) and the National Museum of Australia (NMA), to engage school children from regional communities using education programs that focus on place and environmental health. We focus on the MDBC's International Riverhealth Conference held in Mildura in 2003 and the associated Murray–Darling Basin TalkBack Classroom sponsored by the NMA and the Parliamentary Education Office (PEO). We explore how key themes of local scale, place-based identities, youth voice and critical engagement are developed in these programs and consider how they relate to the environmental agency of children. We then reflect on the potential for the kinds of environmental agency promoted through these programs to help build the capacity of local communities to progress larger goals of environmental restoration and sustainability in the Murray–Darling Basin. The evaluation research reported here forms part of the Committing to Place research project, an Australian Research Council Linkage grant involving the University of Tasmania, the National Museum of Australia and the Murray–Darling Basin Commission.     

Impacts of groundwater flow on the evolution of a thermokarst lake in the permafrost–dominated region on the Qinghai–Tibet plateau

As a result of global warming induced permafrost degradation in recent decades, thermokarst lakes in the Qinghai–Tibet plateau (QTP) have been regulating local hydrological and ecological processes. Simulations with coupled moisture–heat numerical models in the Beiluhe basin (located in the hinterland of permafrost regions on the QTP) have provided insights into the interaction between groundwater flow and the freeze–thaw process. A total of 30 modified SUTRA scenarios were established to examine the effects of hydrodynamic forces, permeability, and climate on thermokarst lakes. The results indicate that the hydrodynamic condition variables regulate the permafrost degradation around the lakes. In case groundwater recharges to the lake, a low–temperature groundwater flow stimulates the expansion of the surrounding thawing regions through thermal convection. The thawing rate of the permafrost underlying the lake intensifies when groundwater is discharged from the lake. Under different permeability conditions, spatiotemporal variations in the active layer thickness significantly influence the occurrence of an open talik at the lake bottom. A warmer and wetter climate will inevitably lead to a sharp decrease in the upper limit of the surrounding permafrost, with a continual decrease in the duration of open talik events. Overall, our results underscore that comprehensive consideration of the relevant hydrologic processes is critical for improving the understanding of environmental and ecological changes in cold environments.     

A smoothed particle hydrodynamics modelling of soil–water mixing and resulting changes in average strength

Soil–water interaction is a pivotal process in many underwater geohazards such as underwater landslides where soil sediments gradually evolve into turbidity currents after interactions with ambient water. Due to the large deformations, multiphase interactions and phase changes this involves, investigations from numerical modelling of the transition process have been limited so far. This study explores a simple numerical replication of such soil–water mixing with respect to changes in average strength using smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH). A uniform viscoplastic model is used for both the solid-like and fluid-like SPH particles. The proposed numerical solution scheme is verified by single-phase dam break tests and multiphase simple shear tests. SPH combinations of solid-like and fluid-like particles can replicate the clay–water mixture as long as the liquidity index of the solid-like particles is larger than unity. The proposed numerical scheme is shown to capture key features of an underwater landslide such as hydroplaning, water entrainment and wave generation and thus shows promise as a tool to simulate the whole process of subaquatic geohazards involving solid–fluid transition during mass transport.     

Ocean current estimation using a Multi-Model Ensemble Kalman Filter during the Grand Lagrangian Deployment experiment (GLAD)

In the summer and fall of 2012, during the GLAD experiment in the Gulf of Mexico, the Consortium for Advanced Research on Transport of Hydrocarbon in the Environment (CARTHE) used several ocean models to assist the deployment of more than 300 surface drifters. The Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) at 1 km and 3 km resolutions, the US Navy operational NCOM at 3 km resolution (AMSEAS), and two versions of the Hybrid Coordinates Ocean Model (HYCOM) set at 4 km were running daily and delivering 72-h range forecasts. They all assimilated remote sensing and local profile data but they were not assimilating the drifter’s observations. This work presents a non-intrusive methodology named Multi-Model Ensemble Kalman Filter that allows assimilating the local drifter data into such a set of models, to produce improved ocean currents forecasts. The filter is to be used when several modeling systems or ensembles are available and/or observations are not entirely handled by the operational data assimilation process. It allows using generic in situ measurements over short time windows to improve the predictability of local ocean dynamics and associated high-resolution parameters of interest for which a forward model exists (e.g. oil spill plumes). Results can be used for operational applications or to derive enhanced background fields for other data assimilation systems, thus providing an expedite method to non-intrusively assimilate local observations of variables with complex operators. Results for the GLAD experiment show the method can improve water velocity predictions along the observed drifter trajectories, hence enhancing the skills of the models to predict individual trajectories.