用概率圆法决策台风预报路径

在分析了国内外台风预报实际业务流程的背景下，设计了一个业务上实用的概率圆客观综合决策台风路径预报的决策模型。采用了以误差概率圆的重叠区为导向的新的客观综合决策路径预报方法，对综合利用各种路径预报方法，自动客观地决策做了新的尝试。在软件设计上解决了自动判定，抽取客观决策参考点的技术难题。检验效果证明它优于一般的回归决策水平。     

Testing Sr/Sr as a paleosalinity indicator on mixed marine, brackish-water and terrestrial vertebrate skeletal apatite in late Paleocene-early Eocene near-coastal sediments, Mississippi

Mixed marine, brackish-water and terrestrial vertebrate skeletal apatite is found in the late Paleocene-early Eocene Tuscahoma and Bashi Formations of Mississippi. The co-Occurrence in these near-coastal marine deposits of skeletal apatite with different provenances offers a unique opportunity for unraveling the effects of diagenesis on apatite ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr composition, with bearings on the use of this isotope pair as paleosalinity indicator. The results show that the Sr isotopes of all originally poorly ordered phases of skeletal apatite have extensively re-equilibrated with pore water with significantly lower ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios than late Paleocene-early Eocene seawater. For example, marine shark and ray teeth from the Bashi Formation all have clearly nonmarine ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios, 0.7073-0.7075, compared with a coeval seawater ratio in the range 0.7077-0.7078. However, separated shark tooth enamel, with a high original crystallinity, appears to have retained all or most of its in vivo Sr isotopic signature until the present. Here we also show that ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr results on recent vertebrate skeletal material from different environments are in good agreement with expected values for respective habitat.

Earlier analyses of calcite material from the Bashi Formation indicated the existence of a shift in seawater ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr to a lower value at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary. The strong influence of pore water with low, nonmarine ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr on the apatite in the Bashi Formation suggests that the proposed isotopic shift may be an artifact related to diagenetic processes.     

用于裂变径迹技术刻度的铀标准玻璃的研制

监测中子积分通量是裂变径迹技术的重要组成部分。铀玻璃监测中子积分通量是国际裂变径迹定年标准化工作组推荐的重要方法之一，铀玻璃测定法还普遍用于测定样品中的铀含量及其空间分布。本文介绍的铀标准玻璃，经过多家实验室定值测定，表明其稳定性、均匀性均达到国家一级标准物质的要求，抗酸性能达到Ⅰ级光学玻璃水平，抗潮性能达到Ⅱ级光学玻璃水平。其它性能指标均达到或超过美国国家标准局的同类产品。     

唐山地区近震S波分裂的观测与研究

文中主要采用Stuart Crampin提出的偏振分析技术,把数字化的地震资料进行了滤波和还原处理,对唐山地区进行了近震S波分裂的分析,得出这一地区的主压应力场方向为北东方向。     

裂变径迹定年法中国际标样的年龄测定

第６届国际裂变径迹测定地质年代学术讨论会上推荐标准化刻度裂变径迹定年法，并推荐了几种定年标样。本文通过标准铀玻璃刻度系数定出值，利用外探测器法测定了国际标样中的３种桔石和两种磷灰石的年龄（ＦＣＴ２７．７±０．８Ｍａ，ＢＭ１６．１±０．５Ｍａ，ＴＲ６０．０±３．ＯＭａ，Ｄｕｒａｎｇｏ３０．８±１．９Ｍａ），在误差范围内与参考年龄一致。     

较小尺度涡旋与台风的相互作用及其对台风路径的影响

用一个准地转正压模式实施５组积分时间为５天的试验，研究台风环流与较小尺度涡旋之间的相互作用。结果指出，涡旋相互作用可以改变台风环流的非对称结构，进而引起台风移动偏离正常路径。     

关于大型超大型矿床的概念问题

关于大型超大型矿床的概念，当前还存在着不同的理解和认识，为例于国际对比和协同攻关，作者对有关问题提出：简化分级，统一名称和推行国际国内双轨制，根据成矿的普遍性和特殊性与具体地质条件相结合的原则，建议因地制宜处理好个体与群体，“有兄弟”与“独生子”、单一类型与复杂类型，贫矿与富矿，以有点，线，面的分布形式等问题。     

2019年影响中国台风的降水预报误差及其来源研究

针对2019年影响中国的8个台风,利用面向降水对象的CRA(contiguous rain area)方法研究了欧洲中期天气预报中心确定性预报的降水误差来源,及其在不同预报时段和降水量级下的变化趋势,分析了台风路径预报误差与降水对象的CRA位置误差之间的相关性,对比计算了台风路径修正与CRA shifting方法对于改进降水预报的作用,并评估了台风降水概率分布、径向分布和非对称分布的预报误差。结果表明:总体而言,台风降水预报的主要误差来自于位置误差和形态误差;除特大量级降水以外,台风降水对象的CRA位置误差与路径误差显著相关,通过修正台风路径能改进降水预报,但其效果要逊于CRA shifting方法;预报的台风降水概率密度分布形态与观测总体上较为一致,但台风核心区内的预报降水强度均大于观测;台风登陆或靠近我国沿海前后,预报降水较观测更靠近台风中心,且略滞后于观测,预报降水的非对称性明显弱于观测。     

The effect of the large-scale mantle flow field on the Iceland hotspot track

Fluid dynamical simulations were carried out in order to investigate the effect of the large-scale mantle flow field and the depth of the plume source on the structure of the Iceland plume through time. The time-dependent location and shape of the plume in the Earth's mantle was calculated in a global model and it was refined in the upper mantle using a 3D Cartesian model box. Global flow was computed based on density heterogeneities derived from seismic tomography. Plate motion history served as a velocity boundary condition in both models. Hotspot tracks of the plume conduits and the plume head were calculated and compared to actual bathymetry of the North Atlantic. If a plume source in the lowermost mantle is assumed, the calculated surface position of the plume conduit has a southward component of motion due to southward flow in the lower mantle. Depending on tomography model, assumed plume age and buoyancy the southward component is more or less dominating. Plume models having a source at the 660 km discontinuity are only influenced by flow in the upper mantle and transition zone and hence rather yield westward hotspot motion. Many whole-mantle plume models result in a V-shaped track, which does not match the straight Greenland–Iceland–Faroe ridge. Models without strong southward motion, such as for a plume source at 660 km depth, match actual bathymetry better. Plume tracks were calculated from both plume conduits and plume heads. A plume head of 120 K anomalous temperature gives the best match between plume head track and bathymetry.