9711号台风的移动路径和影响山东的特大暴雨分析

对９７１１号台风的移动路径及其造成的暴雨进行了分析。分析表明,副高外围环流在台风移动过程中有明显的引导作用;台风的移动路径和暴雨落区与正涡度轴线及高能轴线都有较好的对应关系;对流层中层变能场的分布对台风移动路径有明显的预报指示意义。     

AN EXPERIMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS FORECAST OF TYPHOON TRACK

Obvious results have been achieved in the forecast of typhoon track that is improved with a consensus procedure Forecast experiments were conducted with the analogue model (TSF) and the Markov type model (MTSF)that are widely used and the results show that there has been significant increase in the capability of forecasting with the improvement by the consensus procedure.     

冬季菲律宾周围对流活动与北太平洋风暴轴联系的数值模拟

通过利用IAP 2-L AGCM进行的数值模拟,进一步揭示了冬季菲律宾周围对流活动异常对北太平洋风暴轴变化的影响及其二者联系的物理机制和物理过程。结果表明:当菲律宾周围对流活动增强时,在500 hPa等压面图上强迫产生一个自赤道西太平洋开始,经我国东部、堪察加半岛、白令海,到美国西海岸的异常波列;位于西太平洋的经向三圈环流增强,位置北移;在风暴轴的西半部和东端斜压性增强;从而导致了北太平洋风暴轴增强、北抬、东伸。     

“菲特”台风路径和强度预报难点分析

利用1°×1°NCEP再分析资料、NOAA海温资料对其进行分析,结果表明:(1)副高突然加强西进,中低层高压带加强,在台风北侧形成高压坝和强盛偏东气流,是台风路径突然西折的主要原因;(2)"丹娜丝"的活动在一定程度上阻止了副热带高压的南落,有利于副高南侧偏东急流的维持和加强,对"菲特"路径的突然西折起一定作用。敏感性数值试验结果表明"双台风"效应对"菲特"登陆前进一步西折具有决定作用;(3)高低空急流的配置,产生了动力场的耦合作用,加强了台风的对流活动,所释放的潜热可以补偿海温降低的影响,对"菲特"在近海强度维持起到了重要作用;(4)"菲特"的强度和环境风垂直切变的演变规律基本一致,较低的环境风垂直切变是"菲特"在近海强度维持的重要原因。     

三维点云在轨道板快速检测中的应用

针对现有的CRTSⅢ型轨道板检测方法效率低下、设备组装复杂、部分还需人工操作等不足,基于三维点云数据实现了轨道板外形尺寸的高精度快速检测。利用轨道板标准三维模型建立相关检测特征,在完成轨道板三维点云数据相关预处理后,将点云数据精确配准至标准三维模型,利用模型上已建立的特征拟合计算轨道板表面点云数据的检测特征,获得轨道板各检测指标的测量值;计算测量值与标准三维模型设计尺寸之间的偏差,从而实现轨道板外形尺寸的快速检测。实验表明,与常规的检测手段相比,该方法具有检测精度高、速度快、检测结果稳定可靠、检测项目齐全等优点,具有良好的应用前景。     

河北矾山超钾质岩浆氧逸度及含水性特征的磷灰石地球化学记录

产于华北克拉通北缘的晚三叠世矾山超钾质碱性岩杂岩体主要由单斜辉石岩和辉石正长岩等组成,以发育内生磷灰石-磁铁矿矿床而闻名。本文选取矾山杂岩体中的磷灰石为研究对象,通过测试磷灰石的主微量元素及原位Sr-Nd同位素组成以探讨母岩浆的氧逸度及含水性特征。研究表明,矾山磷灰石以轻稀土元素富集、重稀土元素亏损为特征,显示出缺乏显著Ce异常的“右倾”的稀土配分型式,且具有较低的Ga含量及较高的δEu值,暗示杂岩体具有较高的岩浆氧逸度,这也得到了磷灰石Mn氧逸度计的支持。所有磷灰石以高Sr、低Y为特征,具有较高的Sr/Y(>30)和La/Yb(>90)比值,且Sr/Y与La/Yb存在明显的正相关关系,表明矾山超钾质岩浆具有较高的含水量。矾山磷灰石的原位Sr-Nd同位素投点位于地幔序列,明显偏离地壳趋势。母岩浆的“氧化且富水”特征是矾山杂岩体得以发生磷灰石-磁铁矿矿化的重要因素,其主要与板片俯冲过程中蚀变洋壳对岩石圈地幔的交代作用有关。通过对比矾山杂岩体与全球范围内其他地质环境中磷灰石的成分数据,发现具有“高Sr、低F、少Cl”特征的磷灰石可作为识别超钾质碱性岩杂岩体(及其相关金属矿床)的...     

Influence of future tropical cyclone track changes on their basin-wide intensity over the western North Pacific: Downscaled CMIP5 projections

The possible changes of tropical cyclone(TC) tracks and their influence on the future basin-wide intensity of TCs over the western North Pacific(WNP) are examined based on the projected large-scale environments derived from a selection of CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models. Specific attention is paid to the performance of the CMIP5 climate models in simulating the large-scale environment for TC development over the WNP. A downscaling system including individual models for simulating the TC track and intensity is used to select the CMIP5 models and to simulate the TC activity in the future.The assessment of the future track and intensity changes of TCs is based on the projected large-scale environment in the21 st century from a selection of nine CMIP5 climate models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5(RCP4.5)scenario. Due to changes in mean steering flows, the influence of TCs over the South China Sea area is projected to decrease,with an increasing number of TCs taking a northwestward track. Changes in prevailing tracks and their contribution to basin-wide intensity change show considerable inter-model variability. The influences of changes in prevailing track make a marked contribution to TC intensity change in some models, tending to counteract the effect of SST warming. This study suggests that attention should be paid to the simulated large-scale environment when assessing the future changes in regional TC activity based on climate models. In addition, the change in prevailing tracks should be considered when assessing future TC intensity change.     

OBJECTIVE CLASSIFICATION OF THE TRACKS OF TROPICAL STORMS IN THE BAY OF BENGAL

An objective analysis of tropical cyclone tracks is performed, with which the tracks of 131 tropical storms (TSs) in 1972-2011 are separated into three types that move west-, north- and northwestward, denoted as Types A, B and C, respectively. Type A (21 TSs and 16% of total) has the origin in the southwestern Bay of Bengal, with the TS in a unimodal distribution as its seasonal feature, occurring mainly in autumn; 18 of the 21 TSs (taking up 90%) land mostly on the western Bay coast (west of 85°E); 5% of Type-A TSs attains the wind speed of >42.7 to 48.9 m/s. Type A has little or no effect on Tibet. Type B (74 TSs, 56.6% of the total) has its preferable origin in the central Bay of Bengal, with the TS in a bimodal distribution as its seasonal pattern. This type denotes the travel in the north in spring, with the landfall of 67 of the 74 TSs (accounting for 91%) mainly on the middle coast of the Bay (85° to 95°E), and 19% of the TSs reaching the wind velocity of >42.7 to 48.9 m/s, which exert great effect on Tibet and it is this TS track that gives strong precipitation on its way through this region. Type C (36 TSs, 27.5% of the total) has its main origin in the southern part of the bay, and these TSs are formed largely in autumn, moving in the northwest direction, and 23 of the 36 TSs (64%) land mostly on the western Bay coast, lasting for a longer time, with almost no impact upon Tibet.     

准噶尔盆地周缘造山带裂变径迹研究及其地质意义

通过对准噶尔盆地东西两侧造山带地质剖面观察、系统裂变径迹测年与热演化模拟结果分析,并结合前人研究结果,准噶尔盆地周缘造山带中,主要经历了中生代晚期构造热事件。通过裂变径迹分析对比,准噶尔盆地两侧造山带具有不同的隆升历史,盆地西北缘早于东部隆升,隆升速率亦大于东部。准噶尔盆地西北缘自白垩纪以来经历了由准噶尔盆地边缘向扎伊尔山先后依次隆升事件,表明了准噶尔西北缘逆冲断裂系向盆内后展式逆冲推覆。准噶尔盆地东西两侧造山带岩石裂变径迹数据均反映了白垩纪以来的冷却隆升事件,充分证实了燕山晚期构造运动在准噶尔地区的普遍存在,为详细研究燕山期新疆北部陆内构造活动提供了证据。     

青藏高原西北缘盆山过渡带陡坡地貌的形成时代与成因

平均海拔大于4500 m的青藏高原,是通过高原边缘的陡坡地貌与海拔低于1500 m的周缘盆地或平原相连接的,这些围绕高原的陡坡地貌是何时、如何形成的呢？本文通过对西昆仑山中段北缘主逆冲断层上盘陡坡地貌区9件磷灰石样品的裂变径迹年龄与长度分析表明：在海拔3900～4635 m的陡坡地貌中的裂变径迹样品年龄为6.2±1.4 Ma～0.9±0.3 Ma,呈现“上新下老”的反序分布特征; 而通过热历史模拟显示约5 Ma,约3～2 Ma,约2～1 Ma 和约1 Ma该地区出现多阶段的隆升与剥露。结合前人研究成果和野外地质的观察认为,现今青藏高原西北缘陡坡地貌的形成是中新世晚期以来高原边界叠瓦状断裂系经历了约8 Ma、约5 Ma、约3～2 Ma、约2～1 Ma和约1 Ma多阶段后展式逆冲运动的结果,这为青藏高原周缘陡坡地貌的形成和青藏高原的隆升时代与型式提供了关键的热年代学约束。