基于交通大数据的广东省高速公路碳排放计量模型与空间格局

以广东省为例,基于高速公路联网收费系统的路段车流数据,建立包含I~IV类客车和I~VI类货车在内的全样本、高精度碳排放计量模型,并采用地理空间分析法探索广东省高速公路碳排放空间差异性。结论主要有：1）广东省高速公路碳排放主要来自于货车,货车碳排放占碳排放总量的57.1%;客车占42.9%。其中,中小型机动车,如I类客车（即小汽车）、I类和III类货车等是高速公路主要碳排放源。2）在高速公路网络中,碳排放高值路段具有集中于国家级高速公路、邻近经济发达和人口密集区、邻近机场和港口等空间特征。客车碳排放高值路段主要集中在珠三角区域,沿广州市向外呈放射状分布;货车碳排放高值路段主要分布在国家级高速公路,且货车载货量越小,碳排放空间分布越集中。3）广东省高速公路碳排放较高的地市多集中在珠三角城市群,广州市城市首位效应突出。县区尺度下,高速公路碳排放的空间非均衡特征显著,碳排放较高的县区多为广州市和佛山市下属县区。     

Sectoral targets for developing countries: combining ‘common but differentiated re-sponsibilities’ with ‘meaningful participation’

Although a global cap-and-trade system is seen by many researchers as the most cost-efficient solution to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the governments of developing countries refuse to enter into such a system in the short term. Many scholars and stakeholders, including the European Commission, have thus proposed various types of commitments for developing countries that appear less stringent, such as sectoral approaches. A macroeconomic assessment of such a sectoral approach is provided for developing countries. Two policy scenarios in particular are assessed, in which developed countries continue with Kyoto-type absolute commitments, while developing countries adopt an emissions trading system limited to electricity generation and linked to developed countries' cap-and-trade systems. In the first scenario, CO₂ allowances are auctioned by the government, which distributes its revenues as a lump sum to households. In a second scenario, the auction revenues are used to reduce taxes on, or to give subsidies to, electricity generation. The quantitative analysis, conducted with a hybrid general equilibrium model, shows that such options provide almost as much emissions reduction as a global cap-and-trade system. Moreover, in the second sectoral scenario, GDP losses in developing countries are much lower than with a global cap-and-trade system, as is also the effect on the electricity price.     

Estimation of the Distribution of Global Anthropogenic Heat Flux

The radiance lights data in 2006 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Air Force Defense Meteorological Satellite Program/Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) and authoritative energy data distributed by the United State Energy Information Administration were applied to estimate the global distribution of anthropogenic heat flux.A strong linear relationship was found to exist between the anthropogenic heat flux and the DMSP/OLS radiance data.On a global scale,the average value of anthropogenic heat flux is approximately 0.03 W m 2 and 0.10 W m 2 for global land area.The results indicate that global anthropogenic heat flux was geographically concentrated and distributed,fundamentally correlating to the economical activities.The anthropogenic heat flux concentrated in the economically developed areas including East Asia,Europe,and eastern North America.The anthropogenic heat flux in the concentrated regions,including the northeastern United States,Central Europe,United Kingdom,Japan,India,and East and South China is much larger than global average level,reaching a large enough value that could affect regional climate.In the center of the concentrated area,the anthropogenic heat flux density may exceed 100 W m 2,according to the results of the model.In developing areas,including South America,Central and North China,India,East Europe,and Middle East,the anthropogenic heat flux can reach a level of more than 10 W m 2 ;however,the anthropogenic heat flux in a vast area,including Africa,Central and North Asia,and South America,is low.With the development of global economy and urban agglomerations,the effect on climate of anthropogenic heat is essential for the research of climate change.     

Geochemical evidence (C,N and Pb isotopes) of recent anthropogenic impact in south‐central Chile from two environmentally distinct lake sediment records

In this paper, we compare the elemental and isotopic (C, N, Pb) geochemistry of lake sediments from two contrasted environments in south‐central Chile. The first lake, Laguna Chica de San Pedro (LCSP), is situated in the urbanised area of the Biobio Region (36°S). The second lake, Lago Puyehue (40° S), is located 400 km to the southeast of LCSP and within an Andean national park. Our aim is to identify environmental impacts associated with increasing industrial activities and land degradation during the last 150 a. In LCSP, shifts in C/N atomic ratios, δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N from 1915–1937 to the late 1980s are attributed to successive land degradation episodes in the lake watershed. Based on a Pb isotopic mixing model, we estimate that up to 20% of lead in LCSP sediments is supplied from urban atmospheric pollution. By contrast, human impact in the watershed of Lago Puyehue is very limited. We observe no change in organic geochemistry during the last 150 a and lead contamination remains lower than 5%, even during the last decades. Although contamination levels are much higher in LCSP than in Lago Puyehue, a peak in anthropogenic Pb is recorded during the same period (1974–1976) at both sites. This maximum contamination level is consistent with increased industrial activity in the vicinity of Concepción. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Late Holocene floodplain incision and alluvial fan formation in the central Grampian Highlands,Scotland: chronology,environment and implications

A section cut across an alluvial fan and the underlying floodplain terrace in the central Grampian Highlands provides an unusually complete record of late Holocene events. At ca. 2.7–2.4 cal kyr BP floodplain aggradation was replaced by net floodplain incision. Pollen evidence and charcoal counts provide no evidence for contemporaneous anthropogenic landscape change, and the timing of the transition suggests that it reflects an increase in high-magnitude erosive flood events following overall climatic deterioration. The overlying fan was deposited by torrential hyperconcentrated flows during three brief storm-generated depositional events at ca. 2.2–2.1, 1.9–1.8 and 0.9–0.7 cal kyr BP, separated and succeeded by prolonged periods of stability and peat accumulation. During these three events, a cumulative total of ca. 6750 m³ of sediment was deposited, probably in no more than a few hours over a timescale of two millennia. These findings imply that proposed links between human activity and the development of alluvial fans or debris cones require reassessment, and that different elements of the Holocene alluvial landscape have responded in different ways to the same climatic inputs. Aggregation of dating evidence relating to aggradation or incision of alluvial landforms at different scales therefore may produce misleading results. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

区域土地利用影响地表CO2浓度异质性特征的动力学机制

本文综合应用高斯方程和拉姆齐模型,针对京津冀地区2000年以来10 km×10 km栅格尺度的地表CO₂浓度开展研究,分析了区域土地利用影响地表CO₂浓度异质性特征的动力学机制。研究发现：① 地表CO₂浓度与土地利用类型密切相关。2000—2018年京津冀地区CO₂浓度的高值区主要集中于经济较发达的快速城镇化地区;② 土地利用强度及土地利用效率上的时空分异为地表CO₂扩散提供了潜在的势能。京津冀地区地表CO₂排放及扩散存在明显的空间异质性,距离CO₂排放高值区越近,其相应的CO₂浓度越高并随时间推移及空间拓展呈逐步减小的态势;③ 京津冀地区在土地利用结构调整、格局优化及效率提升后,CO₂排放强度增幅明显减弱,其区域间的增幅差异也逐渐缩小。产业转型发展、土地利用格局优化、土地利用效率提高有效地抑制了京津冀地区地表CO₂排放强度的提升并促进了该区域的内涵式增长与高质量发展。     

美国退出《巴黎协定》对全球温室气体排放的影响

现有研究表明美国退出《巴黎协定》将会在2025年导致其国内排放增加约1.2 Gt CO₂-eq,然而美国退出《巴黎协定》对全球气候治理的影响不仅限于此,还包括资金效应、政治效应,以及惯性效应等对全球排放的间接和长期影响。本文通过构建体现不同效应的全球温室气体排放情景,分析了美国退出《巴黎协定》后对全球温室气体排放可能造成的不同影响。结果表明,美国退出《巴黎协定》的自身效应、资金效应、对伞形国家的政治效应和对发展中国家的政治效应,将分别导致全球2030年的年温室气体净排放量(扣除碳汇吸收量后的温室气体排放量)上升2.0、1.0、1.0和1.9 Gt CO₂-eq,并导致全球2015—2100年的累计排放量分别上升246.9、145.3、102.0和270.2 Gt CO₂-eq。为防止美国退出《巴黎协定》的不利影响进一步扩大,中国应积极引领全球气候治理制度的建设与发展,与各国紧密合作全面平衡地推进《巴黎协定》的落实和实施。     

Options to overcome the barriers to pricing European agricultural emissions

Although agriculture could contribute substantially to European emission reductions, its mitigation potential lies untapped and dormant. Market-based instruments could be pivotal in incentivizing cost-effective abatement. However, sector specificities in transaction costs, leakage risks and distributional impacts impede its implementation. The significance of such barriers critically hinges on the dimensions of policy design. This article synthesizes the work on emissions pricing in agriculture together with the literature on the design of market-based instruments. To structure the discussion, an options space is suggested to map policy options, focusing on three key dimensions of policy design. More specifically, it examines the role of policy coverage, instruments and transfers to farmers in overcoming the barriers. First, the results show that a significant proportion of agricultural emissions and mitigation potential could be covered by a policy targeting large farms and few emission sources, thereby reducing transaction costs. Second, whether an instrument is voluntary or mandatory influences distributional outcomes and leakage. Voluntary instruments can mitigate distributional concerns and leakage risks but can lead to subsidy lock-in and carbon price distortion. Third, the impact on transfers resulting from the interaction of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) with emissions pricing will play a key role in shaping political feasibility and has so far been underappreciated.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Following the 2015 Paris Agreement, European climate policy is at a crossroads. Achieving cost-effectively the 2030 and 2050 European targets requires all sectors to reduce their emissions. Yet, the cornerstone of European climate policy, the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), covers only about half of European emissions. Major sectors have been so far largely exempted from carbon pricing, in particular transport and agriculture. While transport has been increasingly under the spotlight as a possible candidate for an EU ETS sectoral expansion, policy discussions on pricing agricultural emissions have been virtually absent. This article attempts to fill this gap by investigating options for market-based instruments to reduce agricultural emissions while taking barriers to implementation into account.     

Seasonal Study of Methane and Nitrous Oxide in the Coastal Waters of the Southern Baltic Sea

Atmospheric and dissolved methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) were measured in the unique coastal ecosystem of theBoddenwaters, including the western Oder estuary, (southern Baltic Sea) during five campaigns between 1994 and 1997. The CH₄saturations, ranging from 105–15 500%, showed great spatial and temporal variability with maximum values in September and minimum values in December. The N₂O saturations were in the range of 91–312% with a maximum in March. Enhanced concentrations of both gases were observed only in the western Oder estuary near the mouth of the Peene River. Thus, we conclude that the distributions of CH₄and N₂O in the investigatedBoddenwaters are, directly or indirectly, linked to the Peene River runoff and not to the Oder River. Our estimate of the annual CH₄emissions from theBoddenwaters to the atmosphere indicates a significant contribution (c. 17%) to the overall CH₄emissions from the Baltic Sea. In contrast, theBoddenwaters represent only a small source for atmospheric N₂O.CH₄production rates estimated from sediment slurry experiments revealed a significant spatial variability and indicated that methanogenic activity was related to acetate consumption in the surface sediment layer. Sedimentary CH₄production might depend on different amounts of accumulation of organic material.