基于优化经验模态分解和聚类分析的滑坡位移智能预测研究

针对三峡库区"阶跃式"滑坡的变形特征,提出了一种新的滑坡位移预测方法。以白水河滑坡ZG118和XD-01监测点位移数据为例,采用基于软筛分停止准则的经验模态分解(SSSC-EMD)将累计位移-时间曲线和影响因子时间序列自适应地分解为多个固有模态函数(IMF),并采用K均值(K-Means)聚类法对其进行聚类累加,得到有物理含义的位移分量(趋势性位移、周期性位移以及随机性位移)和影响因子分量(高频影响因子和低频影响因子)。使用最小二乘法对趋势性位移进行拟合预测;采用果蝇优化-最小二乘支持向量机(FOA-LSSVM)模型对周期性位移和随机性位移进行预测。将各位移分量预测值进行叠加处理,实现滑坡累计位移的预测。研究结果表明,所提出的(SSSC-EMD)-K-Means-(FOA-LSSVM)模型能够预测"阶跃式"滑坡的位移变化规律,且预测精度高于传统的支持向量机回归(SVR)、最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)模型;并通过改变训练集长度,进行单因素分析,发现其与预测精度之间呈正相关关系。     

基于多源遥感影像的长春市城市建成区提取

夜光遥感影像记录的城市灯光与人类活动密切相关,已广泛应用于城市信息提取。珞珈一号作为新一代夜光遥感数据源,比以往的夜光数据具有更高的空间分辨率和光谱分辨率,可以更清晰地表达城市建成区范围和内部结构。本文利用珞珈一号夜光遥感影像,通过人类居住指数（human settlement index, HSI）、植被覆盖和建筑共同校正的城市夜光指数（vegetation and build adjusted nighttime light urban index, VBANUI）及支持向量机（support vector machine, SVM）监督分类3种方法对长春市城市建成区进行提取,并与利用NPP/VIIRS（suomi national polar-orbiting partnership/visible infrared imaging radiometer suite）夜光遥感影像、采用同样方法得到的结果对比。结果显示：本文提出的VBANUI提高了传统植被覆盖校正的城市夜光指数（vegetation adjusted nighttime light urban index, VANUI）的提取精度,使用珞珈一号夜光遥感影像通过VBANUI提取的城市建成区结果最优,其Kappa系数为0.80,总体分类精度为90.74%;使用珞珈一号和NPP/VIIRS夜光遥感影像通过HSI按最佳阈值提取城市建成区的Kappa系数分别为0.75和0.72,总体分类精度分别为88.27%和86.54%;复合数据的SVM监督分类法中Landsat-NDBI、Landsat-NDBI-VIIRS、Landsat-NDBI-LJ和Landsat-NDBI-LJlog的Kappa系数分别为0.602、0.627、0.643和0.681,总体分类精度分别为81.11%、81.52%、82.25%和84.48%。研究结果表明：3种提取方法下,均为使用珞珈一号夜光遥感影像的结果优于使用NPP/VIIRS夜光遥感影像的结果,证明相比于NPP/VIIRS夜光遥感影像,珞珈一号夜光遥感影像更适用于城市尺度的建成区范围提取。     

湿陷性黄土边坡预应力锚索耐久性与改善措施研究

随着预应力锚索在湿陷性黄土边坡加固工程中的广泛应用,其耐久性问题就变得日益突出,湿陷性黄土边坡预应力锚索出现了较多因预应力损失而引起的失效事故。基于湿陷性黄土边坡预应力锚索运行现状进行研究,研究表明:黄土腐蚀性对边坡预应力锚索耐久性影响微弱,黄土湿陷性和地质条件变化对边坡预应力锚索耐久性影响显著;通过采用加强排水措施、提升浅部注浆工艺和注重运行维护等措施可以改善湿陷性黄土边坡预应力锚索耐久性;改善后的预应力锚索在监测期内处于平稳波动的服役状态,运行效果良好。本研究以期为湿陷性黄土边坡预应力锚索的设计、施工和运行维护等提供借鉴。     

Perceived fairness and public acceptability of carbon pricing: a review of the literature

While carbon pricing is widely seen as a crucial element of climate policy and has been implemented in many countries, it also has met with strong resistance. We provide a comprehensive overview of public perceptions of the fairness of carbon pricing and how these affect policy acceptability. To this end, we review evidence from empirical studies on how individuals judge personal, distributional and procedural aspects of carbon taxes and cap-and-trade. In addition, we examine preferences for particular redistributive and other uses of revenues generated by carbon pricing and their role in instrument acceptability. Our results indicate a high concern over distributional effects, particularly in relation to policy impacts on poor people, in turn reducing policy acceptability. In addition, people show little trust in the capacities of governments to put the revenues of carbon pricing to good use. Somewhat surprisingly, most studies do not indicate clear public preferences for using revenues to ensure fairer policy outcomes, notably by reducing its regressive effects. Instead, many people prefer using revenues for ‘environmental projects’ of various kinds. We end by providing recommendations for improving public acceptability of carbon pricing. One suggestion to increase policy acceptability is combining the redistribution of revenue to vulnerable groups with the funding for environmental projects, such as on renewable energy.

Key policy insights

• If people perceive carbon pricing instruments as fair, this increases policy acceptability and support.

• People’s satisfaction with information provided by the government about the policy instrument increases acceptability.

• While people express high concern over uneven distribution of the policy burden, they often prefer using carbon pricing revenues for environmental projects instead of compensation for inequitable outcomes.

• Recent studies find that people’s preferences shift to using revenues for making policy fairer if they better understand the functioning of carbon pricing, notably that relatively high prices of CO₂-intensive goods and services reduce their consumption.

• Combining the redistribution of revenue to support both vulnerable groups and environmental projects, such as on renewable energy, seems to most increase policy acceptability.

     

基坑支护中锚杆预应力损失机理分析

目前基坑支护工程中,预应力锚杆加固技术已经得到广泛应用,但对于锚杆锁固以后的预应力变化规律还没有进行深入探讨研究,尤其是针对基坑侧壁为土质边坡的情况。针对锚杆锁固后,预应力的短期内损失和长期运行的稳定性缺乏全面的认识。通过对基坑锚杆预应力变化的系统监测和分析,揭示了锚杆预应力在运行过程中预应力变化的3个不同阶段,并分析了相应的作用因素。     

ACTIVE TENDON CONTROL OF CABLE-STAYED BRIDGES

This paper considers the active vibration control of cables and cable/structure systems with an active tendon controlling the axial displacement of the cable anchor point. It is demonstrated that a force feedback based on a collocated force sensor measuring the tension in the cable is feasible and that this control configuration can be associated with control laws with guaranteed stability properties. Experimental results are presented on a cable with small sag and on a cable/structure system. They show that the control algorithm can provide the structure with several percent of active damping and that the parametric resonance does not occur when the natural frequency of the structure is twice that of the cable.     

流速分布及锚链自身刚度对弹性单锚链系统变形和受力的影响

在锚链系统中,锚链本身的刚度和水流对其作用是影响锚链变形和受力的主要因素。应用分段外推的数值方法,分别对不同刚度和同一弹性锚链在均匀流作用以及同一弹性锚链在不同流速分布(流速在水深方向呈抛物线分布、对数分布)的水流作用下的变形和受力进行了分析和计算,得出了锚链自身的不同刚度及不同流速对锚链的变形及受力的影响情况。结果表明,刚度对锚链受力及变形影响明显,不同流速分布对锚链的偏移量几乎无影响,但对锚链的受力影响较大,选取抛物线型流速分布对锚链安全有利。     

GIS在通信行业中的应用

为阐述GIS技术在通信行业中的应用前景, 从通信行业的发展以及运行网络管理现状出发, 结合GIS技术特点阐述了GIS技术引入通信网络的管理和业务的必要性和必然性.它的引入将从根本上改变通信管线网络规划、建设、管理及资料保存等方面的传统模式, 并为通信行业实现通信全资源、跨专业管理, 为运营商提供市场分析及预测、网络规划、工程设计、资源配置和分析、线路实时监控、应急保障等方法和手段.      

气象装备保障效能评估技术

随着气象部门装备保障业务重要性的不断提高,开展装备保障评估方法的研究,对保障质量进行科学评价成为一个新的课题。就监控、维护和维修3个装备保障子业务分别建立了各自的评估体系,还利用监控、维护和维修业务的独立性,提出了根据业务单位职责的组成,使用监控率、故障率和维修率三者的加权平均值评估装备保障综合效能的方法,对建立装备保障业务的考核体系有一定的参考借鉴意义。     

地震作用对琼州海峡海缆路由区海底稳定性影向的分析

以琼州海峡的北海—临高段海缆路由为例,利用计算对比的方法,分析了地震作用下,路由区3m以浅海底土液化或滑移的可能性,评价了路由区海底的稳定性。结果发现,在地震烈度为Ⅶ度的地震作用下,砂性土海底的地震剪应力平均值(0.86kPa,1.72kPa和2.57kPa)小于砂性土的液化剪应力(1.60kPa,3.20kPa和4.81kPa);粘性土海底的地震剪应力平均值(1.25kPa,2.49kPa和3.74kPa)小于粘性土的抗滑剪应力平均值(4.07kPa,4.61kPa和4.49kPa),路由区海底稳定性良好;在地震烈度为Ⅷ度的地震作用下,砂性土海底的地震剪应力平均值(1.73kPa,3.45kPa和5.12kPa)大于砂性土的液化剪应力;粘性土海底的地震剪应力平均值(2.49kPa,4.98kPa和7.47kPa)除表层外,大于粘性土的抗滑剪应力,路由区海底会发生失稳破坏。