沿海渔业天气警报服务系统

本文简要地介绍了建立沿海渔业天气警报服务系统的必要性,系统的设计特点,现场试验情况以及今后建台布网的设想。特别是把短波单边带通信,地面波传播方式和双音报警技术引入天气警报服务系统,开辟了短波单边带气象通应用的新领域。     

用路径积分法求解电子的衍射态

本文用费曼的路径积分方法求解出自由电子经狭缝衍射后的量子态及在观察屏处的几率分布，所得结果与光子的夫琅和费衍射相同。     

La prévision du climat : de l'échelle saisonnière à l'échelle décennale

The atmosphere and the ocean are subject to many dynamical instabilities, which limit the time during which their behaviour can be deterministically forecasted. At longer timescales, the atmosphere can be predicted at best using statistical methods, as a response to external forcing linked to sea- and land-surface anomalies. Climate being defined as the mean of atmospheric states, it appears that it can be predicted up to a few months in advance, which is the characteristic time of the so-called slow components of the climate system. Forecasting can sometimes be extended to longer time ranges, especially when the coupled ocean–atmosphere system exhibits internal variability modes, with characteristic times of a few years. Seasonal climate forecasting is most often based upon Monte-Carlo simulations, where the various realisations correspond to slightly different initial conditions. The present sate-of-the-art in Europe (ECMWF) and/or in the USA (IRI) allows to forecast such major phenomena, as El Niño, up to six months in advance. Finally, some parameters may exhibit predictability at still longer time-ranges (inter-annual to decadal), but only for certain regions. The example of electricity production is used to underline the potentially large economical benefit of seasonal climate forecasting. To cite this article: J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.

Résumé

L'atmosphère et l'océan sont le siège d'instabilités dynamiques, qui limitent la durée pendant laquelle il est possible d'en prévoir l'évolution de façon déterministe. Au-delà, l'atmosphère n'est plus prévisible, au mieux, que de façon statistique, en fonction du forçage externe qu'exerce(nt) sur elle l'océan et/ou la surface des continents. Le climat (au sens d'une moyenne des états atmosphériques) se révèle ainsi prévisible jusqu'à des échéances temporelles de quelques mois, échelle de temps caractéristique des composantes dites « lentes » du système climatique. La prévision peut s'étendre à des échéances parfois plus longues, dans le cas où le système couplé océan–atmosphère posséderait des modes de variabilité temporelle de périodes caractéristiques de quelques années. La prévision climatique saisonnière est très souvent construite à partir de simulations de type Monte-Carlo, avec des ensembles de réalisations utilisant des conditions initiales légèrement différentes. Dans l'état actuel de ces prévisions, qu'elles soient réalisées en Europe (CEPMMT) ou aux États-Unis (IRI), il est possible de prévoir environ six mois à l'avance un certain nombre de phénomènes climatiques, en particulier ceux liés aux épisodes dits « El Niño », pour lesquels l'amplitude des variations est suffisamment importante. Il existe, par ailleurs, une prévisibilité à encore plus longue échéance (inter-annuelle à décennale), mais seulement pour certains paramètres et certaines régions. L'exemple de la production d'électricité montre l'importance économique potentielle très grande de la prévision climatique saisonnière. Pour citer cet article : J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.     

西安地区部分古遗址考古地磁研究

通过对陕西耀州窑遗址内4个古窑,临潼兵马俑一号坑,西铜一级公路经过黄堡工地开挖的两个五代窑,以及耀州窑博物馆仓库工地内开挖的一个金代窑和一个春秋窑遗址的古地磁研究,初步得出了西安地区古地磁场变化的规律,为鉴定从春秋到金代西安地区的古遗址、古文物提供了考古地磁学上的一个粗略的标准。     

The role of anthropogenic activities in karst spring discharge volatility

The traditional hydrological time series methods tend to focus on the mean of whichever variable is analysed but neglect its time‐varying variance (i.e. assuming the variance remains constant). The variances of hydrological time series vary with time under anthropogenic influence. There is evidence that extensive well drilling and groundwater pumping can intercept groundwater run‐off and consequently induce spring discharge volatility or variance varying with time (i.e. heteroskedasticity). To investigate the time‐varying variance or heteroskedasticity of spring discharge, this paper presents a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (SARIMA‐GARCH) model, whose the SARIMA model is used to estimate the mean of hydrological time series, and the GARCH model estimates its time‐varying variance. The SARIMA‐GARCH model was then applied to the Xin'an Springs Basin, China, where extensive groundwater development has occurred since 1978 (e.g. the average annual groundwater pumping rates were less than 0.20 m³/s in the 1970s, reached 1.20 m³/s at the end of the 1980s, surpassed 2.0 m³/s in the 1990s and exceeded 3.0 m³/s by 2007). To identify whether human activities or natural stressors caused the heteroskedasticity of Xin'an Springs discharge, we segmented the spring discharge sequence into two periods: a predevelopment stage (i.e. 1956–1977) and a developed stage (i.e. 1978–2012), and set up the SARIMA‐GARCH model for the two stages, respectively. By comparing the models, we detected the role of human activities in spring discharge volatility. The results showed that human activities caused the heteroskedasticity of the Xin'an Spring discharge. The predicted Xin'an Springs discharge by the SARIMA‐GARCH model showed that the mean monthly spring discharge is predicted to continue to decline to 0.93 m³/s in 2013, 0.67 m³/s in 2014 and 0.73 m³/s in 2015. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

现代藻类磷酸盐埋藏学实验——对磷酸盐化球状化石研究的启示

产于贵州瓮安埃迪卡拉系陡山沱组磷块岩中的“瓮安生物群”是认识早期生命起源与演化的重要窗口。因为其特殊的磷酸盐化作用,其中的球状化石内部保存了大量精细的细胞甚至亚细胞结构,但保存这些化石的磷酸盐化作用机理尚不清楚。因此,本文采用绿藻门下团藻和空球藻为实验对象,通过改变pH、温度、氧气含量等实验条件,探索藻类在不同埋藏环境下的保存状况,为早期磷酸盐化化石的埋藏机制提供证据。实验结果显示藻类在不同实验条件下的保存潜力差距较大,相同环境下两种藻类所体现的保存潜力也不一致,但都具备足够的保存潜力;空球藻细胞在埋藏过程中出现褶皱变形,但在不同条件下的形态学差异并不明显;团藻的繁殖体形态与瓮安生物群中的一类多细胞球状化石的细胞分裂形式十分相似;早期状态一致的同种藻类不管在相同还是不同的实验条件下其个体直径大小均表现出较强的差异性。本次实验模拟自然状态下的埋藏环境,因此实验现象可能在现实埋藏过程中重现,通过实验得出以下结论：磷酸盐化的埋藏环境中藻类具备足够的保存潜力;磷酸盐化会导致生物获得自身以外的形态学信息;在不同的埋藏学环境下保存的磷酸盐化球状化石的直径大小会有差异;胚胎状化石与磷酸盐化的现生藻类...     

Land use change and its ecological effect in Qian'an County of Jilin Province

Based on GIS and statistical methods, with the help of searching historical literatures and calculating the landscape indices, the land use changes of Qian'an County in both spatial and temporal aspects from 1945 to 1996 has been analyzed in this paper. And the driving forces of land use changes and their ecological effects are discussed too. The main findings of this study are as follows: (1) Land use changed greatly in Qian'an during 1945-1996, characterized by a decrease in grassland, wetland and water bodies, and an increase in cultivated land, saline-alkali land, and the land for housing and other construction purposes. Grassland decreased by 175,828.66 ha, and cultivated land increased by 102,137.23 ha over the half century. Accordingly, the main landscape type changed from a steppe landscape to a managed agricultural ecosystem. (2) Results of correlation analysis show that the land use change in the study area was mainly driven by the socioeconomic factors.　(3) The ecological effects of land use change in the area are characterized by serious salinization, degression of soil fertility and the weakening of landscape suitability.     

福建永安丰门坑多金属矿地质特征及找矿前景

永安丰门坑多金属矿呈似层状、层状、透镜状,贮存在寒武系林田组下段钙质碎屑岩中,矿床具明显的层控和热液叠加改造特征,为沉积-热液改造型多金属矿床。该多金属矿床的发现,为我省在寒武系林田组中寻找该类矿床提供新的目标。     

黑龙江宁安英城子热液金矿床与成矿伴生的辉绿玢岩的锆石U-Pb年龄及其地质意义

英城子热液金矿床产于张广才岭岩浆构造带东侧的早古生代花岗岩岩体内的韧脆性剪切带中。矿区内出露的辉绿玢岩中锆石的SHRIMPU--Pb测年结果表明:16个单颗粒锆石的谐和年龄值可划分为4组,分别为849.7～897.0Ma、755.6±19.2Ma、486～514.0Ma和419～451Ma。结合锆石的特征和相关地质测年结果,初步认为辉绿玢岩岩浆作用发生在麻山期或加里东期陆内造山后的地壳伸展环境内(432Ma);该区在晚元古代和早古生代属于佳木斯地块的一部分或地壳演化与佳木斯地块、额尔古纳地块处于相同的地质环境中。     

浙江临安板桥奥陶系胡乐组笔石新材料及其意义

报道在浙江临安板桥奥陶系剖面的胡乐组中发现的较丰富的笔石动物群,包括Pterograptus elegans,Expansograptus sp.1,Tylograptus sp.,Cryptograptus?sp.,Archicli macograptus angulatus,A.caelatus,Procli-macograptus angustatus等主要属种,应属达瑞威尔阶Pterograptus elegans笔石带。这一发现表明,临安板桥一带的胡乐组时代跨度非常局限,底界比浙赣交界"三山地区"的胡乐组之底高2个笔石带,顶界对比则低2个笔石带。其下伏牯牛潭组的顶界与宜昌三峡地区相比,也低了2个笔石带,具明显的穿时现象。