1988 年以来北京郊区城乡一体化进程及启示

北京城郊农业区在不同时期因产业化、城市化的不同而承担着不同的发展目标, 其城乡一体化的进程及空间格局也出现了差异。本文运用历史沿革分析和数理分析方法对城乡一体化的功能结构及空间分布进行了研究, 结果表明:自1988 年以来, 处于近郊至远郊内缘的农业区(23~57 km处)的产业化、城市化分别出现了辐射式→飞地式、等级转移式→团块+扇状式+辐射式的空间发展;不同时期生态、经济、社会功能的组合和实现情况各有侧重, 多功能评价值相应地在“W”、“M”型空间格局之间转变。总体上, 北京郊区农业区的城乡功能及其综合效益都在增强, 但相对而言经济功能的作用在降低, 生态、景观功能在上升, 社会功能存在波动但总体趋强, 城乡功能的空间布局更加复杂, 而且这种发展态势直接影响着北京“十二五”期间多层次、多中心的城乡一体化建设。     

中国南方调整水稻种植格局——一种水稻生产预先适应气候变化的选择(英文)

Rice planted in southern China accounts for 94% of the total in sown acreage and 88% of the total in production, which matters a lot to Chinese food security. However, due to the prolonged conflict between water availability and rice growth in spatial/temporal distribu-tion, rice production suffers from seasonal drought at acreage of 16%-22%, which compro-mises food production capacity and food security. Focusing on the spatial distribution of seasonal drought with rice and the practices to adapt to it, and based on an analysis of bal-anced water supply for and demand by rice at a growing season scale during 1981-2030, this paper assesses the changing seasonal drought in the process of rice production under the changing climate in the future, and identifies general rice re-cultivation options for climate change adaptation. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows. (1) Rice suggests a decline in seasonal drought, with early season rice (early rice hereafter) by 12,500 km2, middle season rice (middle rice) by 80,000 km2, and in particular late season rice (late rice) by 25,000 km2, which accounts for almost 20% of its cultivated acreage. It is indicated that due to climate change, seasonal drought in major rice producing areas tends to alleviate in general, late season rice in particular. (2) Future climate change brings about a significant impact on the spatial/temporal distribution of water resources in rice producing areas in China. Based on ’pre-designed’ adaptation actions for rice-re-cultivation, the rice cultivation pattern undergoes a significant alteration between 1981-2000 and 2001-2030. In eastern Guizhou and western Hunan, the pattern of single early plus single dry farming is changed into double cropping. In eastern Hunan, the pattern of dry cropping is changed into single early plus single dry farming. In northern Anhui, the pattern of dry farming cropping is changed into middle rice. All this is aimed at a potential adequate availability of water for rice production in the future. (3) Rice re-cultivation patterns developed in this paper help re-balance water demand and supply for rice growth using the spatial analysis tool to adapt rice growth to the changing water avail-ability from spatial perspective, and come up with rice producer-friendly re-cultivation options in response to climate change.     

新疆洪旱灾害与大尺度气候强迫因子的联系

通过对新疆洪灾灾害历史资料和太阳黑子、ENSO事件年数据以及北大西洋涛动指数的分析,表明在太阳黑子极低值年或不活跃年,新疆易发生重大洪灾,而在太阳黑子低值年或相对不活跃年,新疆也易发生重大旱灾。近200a来,新疆重大洪旱灾害绝大部分都发生在太阳黑子的低谷时期。ENSO事件对新疆夏季降水的影响效应明显。因而该事件对新疆的洪旱灾害也产生了影响。对近50年来灾害统计资料分析显示,与拉尼娜年相比,在厄尔尼诺年新疆更易发生洪旱灾害。20世纪后半段新疆洪旱灾害指数与北大西洋涛动指数进行对比可以发现．夏季NAO指数与新疆洪水灾害之间存在大致上的反相关系。而冬季NAO指数与新疆干旱灾害之间存在比较明显的反相关系。     

A relationship between solar activity and frequency of natural disasters in China

The relationship between the length of the solar cycle, a good indicator of long-term change in solar activity, and natural disasters (drought, flood, and strong earthquakes) in China during the last 108 years is analyzed. The results suggest that the length of solar cycle may be a useful indicator for drought/flood and strong earthquakes. When the solar activity strengthens, we see the length of the solar cycle shorten and more floods occur in South China and frequent strong earthquakes happen in the Tibetan Plateau,but the droughts in East China as well as the strong earthquakes in Taiwan and at the western boundary of China are very few. The opposite frequencies occur when the solar activity weakens. The current study indicates that the solar activity may play an important role in the climate extremes and behavior in the lithosphere.     

农业干旱风险研究进展

农业干旱风险分析是近年来兴起的一个新的研究领域,这一研究不仅是农业旱灾风险管理的基础和前提,也是农业干旱风险区划和灾前损失预评估的理论基础。本文系统阐述了农业旱灾风险的内涵及构成要素、风险分析体系及研究现状,在此基础上指出,依据自然灾害风险分析基本原理,从农业旱灾危害性以及承灾体脆弱性角度系统地建立农业旱灾综合风险分析程序框架和指标体系,尤其是开发针对每一风险要素的、动态的数学模型和指标体系是当前干旱灾害风险时空格局研究的当务之急。     

浅析城乡建设用地增加挂钩政策

对当前正在实施的城乡建设用地增减挂钩政策进行了初步分析,认为当前大多数地方开展增减挂钩工作立足点存在偏差,导致工作方式的切入点出现偏向。文章对增减挂钩的深刻内涵进行了剖析,并提出了工作实践中应注意的问题。     

传统农业地区能值生态足迹分析——以贵州省从江县为例

传统农业生态系统正面临着来自现代化发展及其带来的技术经济变革的严重威胁,在一些传统农业地区现代农业替代传统农业已经引发了严重的生态环境问题。生态足迹,作为可持续发展评价的方法之一,由于无法全面衡量人类活动对生态系统造成的各种影响,因此无法揭示传统农业地区真实的生态环境状况,也无法给出科学合理的可持续发展评价。能值生态足迹是对传统生态足迹的一种改进,试图利用能值分析理论的优点囊括人类利用生态系统产品和服务的各种活动。然而,目前能值生态足迹研究往往受到传统生态足迹理论的局限,无法真正将人类消费的各种资源、产品和服务纳入进来。为此,本文将生态系统服务概念引入能值生态足迹理论框架中,进一步改进和完善了能值生态足迹模型,使之能够全面衡量人类活动的生态环境影响。本文利用改进的能值生态足迹模型,以我国传统农业地区贵州省从江县为例,开展生态环境状况评估和可持续发展评价。结果表明,从江县2007年人均能值生态承载力为9.3311 ha,人均能值生态足迹为14.5638 ha,人均能值生态赤字为5.2327 ha。可见,从江县的生态承载力仅能满足当地居民消费总需求的64%,当地处于不可持续发展状态,生态环境状况不容乐观。这与传统生态足迹的评价结果差异十分显著。传统生态足迹评价结果显示,从江县的生态承载力不仅能够满足当地居民的消费需求而且有少量生态盈余。进一步分析显示,从江县居民对生态系统的污染物吸纳服务和侵蚀控制服务的消费,在从江县总生态足迹中占有相当大的比例。这说明,从江县传统农业生产方式受现代农业影响而发生的部分改变,所产生的生态环境影响已经逐步显现。过量施用化肥农药所引起的面源污染以及频繁翻耕和砍伐森林所引起的水土流失,已经严重威胁当地的生态环境健康和可持续发展。     

Issues of Spatial and Temporal Variability in Climate Impact Studies

The accuracy of impact estimates relating climate change to regional-scale agricultural production is constrained by the temporal and spatial resolution of climate change projections. Several techniques have been used to compensate for these limitations in order to provide reasonable estimates of the impact of climate change on crop yield. One approach assumes that variability over time can substitute for spatial variability, thereby reducing the need to estimate the impacts at a spatially dense network of stations—an assumption that has not been generally tested. This study evaluates this assumption using methods similar to those employed in the climate impact literature. The findings suggest that current practices are generally defensible if the goal is to provide a range of possible crop responses to climate change. However, the results also show that the assumption is highly sensitive to specific interactions at the soil-plant-atmosphere interface and, consequently, does not hold under certain circumstances.     

1480-1940年广东地区气候干湿变化与旱涝灾害区域分异特征

1 IntroductionThe natural disasters, especially the flood and drought disasters, have occurred frequently inG uangdong area since ancienttim es.A ccording to historic statisticaldata,since the 17th century,the occurrence of the flood and drought disasters…     

农业系统论与农业结构调整

新一轮农业结构调整是一种战略性调整,面临着巨大的压力。目前的农业结构调整存在很多误区,要求用新的思维方式进行思考。文章阐述了农业系统论,分析了农业的结构和功能,重点从8个方面探讨农业结构调整的新思路,阐述了农业系统论和农业结构调整的关系,对新一轮农业结构调整有一定的现实意义。