三种非线性回归逐时气温预报比较订正

选取ECMWF和T639的2013年1月至2014年12月的数值预报场构造预报因子,基于神经网络、支持向量机和构造函数的非线性方法,预报地面逐时气温。试验结果显示,在单个方法预报误差较大时,3种方法的偏差订正集成方法更利于减小误差,通过偏差订正,3种非线性方法预报效果良好,平均绝对误差减小了0.5 ℃。在近1年独立样本的预报检验中,集成方法、神经网络、支持向量机和构造函数预报的平均绝对误差分别为1.5 ℃、1.7 ℃、1．8 ℃和1．4 ℃,总体上构造函数预报更为准确。     

山东大风天气的低频特征及机理分析

利用山东省122个国家级地面气象观测站的风速数据与欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)提供的ERA-interim再分析数据,采用小波分析、带通滤波等方法对2015年9月—2020年9月山东的大风天气及相应的低频大气环流形势进行分析.结果表明,近几年山东的大风天气有增加的趋势,春季大风发生频次最多,秋季最少;山东半岛东部...     

川滇地区强余震的震级分布和距离分布特征

研究了川滇地区1966年以来12次主震震级MSge;6.5的地震序列中,主震与强余震（本文定义为所有MSge;5的余震）震级差分布特征和强余震与主震距离的分布特征. 结果表明,强余震与主震震级差服从截断的指数分布,据此推导出了强余震与主震震级差的概率密度函数; 强余震距离分布的优势范围是距主震10——39 km,且强余震与主震震中的距离服从正态分布.      

湖北省夏季不同阶段强降水及其大气低频特征

利用1961-2014年湖北省68站逐日降水资料和美国国家海洋和大气管理局环流资料,对比分析了湖北省夏季梅雨期和盛夏期低频强降水事件的基本特征、大气环流形势和低频信号传播特征。结果表明:(1)湖北省夏季降水存在显著的准双周低频周期。(2)相较于盛夏期,梅雨期低频强降水事件次数多,强度强。(3)梅雨期和盛夏期低频强降水事件发生期间的环流形势有着显著的差异。梅雨期,对流层中层东亚沿岸为南北向的波列分布,低层受强索马里越赤道气流和副热带高压外围西南气流共同影响,水汽条件好,东亚存在鞍型场,流场变形,利于形成中尺度气旋系统;盛夏期,对流层中层为欧亚波列分布,低层索马里越赤道气流弱,主要受副热带高压外围水汽输送的影响,日本海以西地区有一异常气旋,其西侧的偏北气流与暖湿气流在30°N附近交汇维持。(4)在强降水事件发生前后,对流层低层的低频正涡度传播特征有较大差异,在梅雨期表现为驻波特征,盛夏期传播更为明显,表现为向西、向南向北传播。     

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SUMMER LOW-FREQUENCY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN CHINA AND PROPAGATION OF TROPICAL INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION

This study investigates the relationship between summer low-frequency rainfall over southern China and tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in the atmosphere by examining systematically the propagation features of the tropical ISO in terms of focusing on five large-scale low-frequency rainfall regimes in summer over southern China. It is demonstrated that there is a close linkage between the five rainfall regimes over southern China and the northward propagation of the tropical ISO. The moist ISO signals, which influence the low-frequency rainfall events in different regions of southern China, mainly propagate northwestward from the tropical ocean to the southeast of China. The southeast China rainfall regime is intimately associated with the moist ISO signals propagating northwestward from the equatorial mid-western Pacific Ocean. For both the Yangtze River regime and South of Yangtze River regime, the moist ISO signals over the northern South China Sea show an evident northward propagation towards the Yangtze River region, and then propagate westward. It is further found that the interaction between the northward propagation of low-latitude ISO signals and the southward propagation of high-latitude ISO signals can also make a clear influence on the low-frequency rainfall in southern China. For the Southern China regime, the moist ISO signals show a significant northward propagation from the Philippines. Moreover, for the rainless regime, southern China is under dry ISO signals’ control, and the latter shows no clear propagation to southern China. This study may provide insights for the extended-range forecasting of summer rainfall in southern China.     

10──20天准双周振荡的经向传播及地理特征

本文采用ＥＣＭＷＦ１９８３年７月１日至９月１２日逐日２００ｈＰａ纬向风场资料，用复经验正交方法讨论了１０－２０天低频振荡的经向传播及地理特征。结果表明：（１）１０－－２天振荡有三个显著区域：贝加尔湖附近地区；赤道９０°Ｅ附近以及新加坡、马来西亚地区；８０－１００°Ｅ，２２－３２°Ｎ之间。（２）源于较高纬度地区的振荡与源于赤道附近地区的振荡在１０５°Ｅ，１７—２３°Ｎ附近同位相相遇，在９０°Ｅ，２０°Ｎ附近反位相相叠加，振荡相互削弱，在２５°Ｎ附近同位相相遇。（３）从振荡位相来看，中南半岛东南部、马来西亚北部、菲律宾以西区域的振荡向北传播到中国东南沿海，向西传播到孟加拉湾印度半岛；２０°Ｎ以南低纬度地区的振荡很少能传播到８０°Ｅ以东３０°Ｎ附近地区；位于９０－９５°Ｅ，２５－２７°Ｎ之间的振荡以及贝加尔湖附近地区的振荡可以向南北两个方向传播。     

高山峡谷场地地震动水平峰值加速度传播特性研究

建立了高山峡谷场地的动力计算模型,分析了攀枝花地震动作用下场地水平峰值加速度(HPA)的衰减效应,研究了不同参数对场地HPA传播特性的影响。数值分析结果表明:HPA随深度增加而衰减,HPA在坡脚处比在峡谷处要低一些;在山顶处有放大效应,但放大系数比实际震害要小一些;HPA衰减程度随着阻尼比和模型深度的增加而增加,随着坡比增加而减小,且不受输入地震动峰值加速度影响;在不同频谱特性地震动作用下,当地震波的卓越频率接近计算模型的自振频率时,场地衰减程度会随之增大。     

High-precision relocation of the aftershock sequence of the January 8, 2022, MS6.9 Menyuan earthquake

The 2022 Menyuan M_S6.9 earthquake, which occurred on January 8, is the most destructive earthquake to occur near the Lenglongling (LLL) fault since the 2016 Menyuan M_S6.4 earthquake. We relocated the mainshock and aftershocks with phase arrival time observations for three days after the mainshock from the Qinghai Seismic Network using the double-difference method. The total length and width of the aftershock sequence are approximately 32 km and 5 km, respectively, and the aftershocks are mainly concentrated at a depth of 7–12 km. The relocated sequence can be divided into 18 km west and 13 km east segments with a boundary approximately 5 km east of the mainshock, where aftershocks are sparse. The east and west fault structures revealed by aftershock locations differ significantly. The west fault strikes EW and inclines to the south at a 71º–90º angle, whereas the east fault strikes 133º and has a smaller dip angle. Elastic strain accumulates at conjunctions of faults with different slip rates where it is prone to large earthquakes. Based on surface traces of faults, the distribution of relocated earthquake sequence and surface ruptures, the mainshock was determined to have occurred at the conjunction of the Tuolaishan (TLS) fault and LLL fault, and the west and east segments of the aftershock sequence were on the TLS fault and LLL fault, respectively. Aftershocks migrate in the early and late stages of the earthquake sequence. In the first 1.5 h after the mainshock, aftershocks expand westward from the mainshock. In the late stage, seismicity on the northeast side of the east fault is higher than that in other regions. The migration rate of the west segment of the aftershock sequence is approximately 4.5 km/decade and the afterslip may exist in the source region.     

SIMULATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER EFFECTS ON A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT CAUSED BY A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER THE YELLOW RIVER MIDSTREAM AREA

A heavy rainfall event caused by a mesoscale convective system (MCS), which occurred over the Yellow River midstream area during 7–9 July 2016, was analyzed using observational, high-resolution satellite, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, and numerical simulation data. This heavy rainfall event was caused by one mesoscale convective complex (MCC) and five MCSs successively. The MCC rainstorm occurred when southwesterly winds strengthened into a jet. The MCS rainstorms occurred when low-level wind fields weakened, but their easterly components in the lower and boundary layers increased continuously. Numerical analysis revealed that there were obvious differences between the MCC and MCS rainstorms, including their three-dimensional airflow structure, disturbances in wind fields and vapor distributions, and characteristics of energy conversion and propagation. Formation of the MCC was related to southerly conveyed water vapor and energy to the north, with obvious water vapor exchange between the free atmosphere and the boundary layer. Continuous regeneration and development of the MCSs mainly relied on maintenance of an upward extension of a positive water vapor disturbance. The MCC rainstorm was triggered by large range of convergent ascending motion caused by a southerly jet, and easterly disturbance within the boundary layer. While a southerly fluctuation and easterly disturbance in the boundary layer were important triggers of the MCS rainstorms. Maintenance and development of the MCC and MCSs were linked to secondary circulation, resulting from convergence of Ekman non-equilibrium flow in the boundary layer. Both intensity and motion of the convergence centers in MCC and MCS cases were different. Clearly, sub-synoptic scale systems in the middle troposphere played a leading role in determining precipitation distribution during this event. Although mesoscale systems triggered by the sub-synoptic scale system induced the heavy rainfall, small-scale disturbances within the boundary layer determined its intensity and location.     

Intensified Eastward and Northward Propagation of Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation over the Equatorial Indian Ocean in a Global Warming Scenario

Northward propagation in summer and eastward propagation in winter are two distinguished features of tropical intraseasonal oscillation(TISO) over the equatorial Indian Ocean.According to numerical modeling results,under a global warming scenario,both propagations were intensified.The enhanced northward propagation in summer can be attributed to the enhanced atmosphere-ocean interaction and the strengthened mean southerly wind;and the intensified eastward propagation in winter is associated with the enhanced convection-wind coupling process and the strengthened equatorial Kevin wave.Future changes of TISO propagations need to be explored in more climate models.