关于用科氏力预测最大余震问题的讨论

对用科里奥利力效应预测余震最大强度的某些问题进行了讨论.并介绍了用该效应对2008年汶川8级地震的最大余震所作的正确预测.     

序列衰减与余震激发研究进展及应用成果

着重于序列衰减与余震激发,系统介绍了修改的大森公式、ETAS模型及BASS模型的最新理论研究进展及应用成果。修改的大森公式是迄今为止对序列衰减的最好描述,据此可对序列衰减特征进行定量表述。大森公式本质上是一种典型的现象统计模型,但由于其参数少、计算简单,并且确实能够反映序列衰减的总体特征,因而在实际中应用广泛。ETAS模型考虑了具有统计自相似特征的次级余震激发问题,次级余震激发强度与父地震强度有关,这在物理过程方面对大森公式进行了大大的拓展。由于考虑了次级余震的激发问题,ETAS模型不但在余震序列研究方面比修改的大森公式有了明显的进展,而且在诸如平静检测、余震群集剔除、背景地震活动评估、外因触发地震活动检测等方面也有诸多应用。BASS模型遵循修改的Bath定律,而ETAS模型遵循的是与父地震震级有关的相似率,这是BASS模型与ETAS模型的最大区别,因而相对ETAS模型而言,BASS模型是一种完全自相似的理想化模型,但目前基于BASS模型的应用研究尚不多见     

爆炸应力波作用下缺陷介质裂纹扩展的动态分析

采用透射式焦散线测试系统,进行爆炸应力波作用下缺陷介质裂纹扩展试验,研究了含与炮孔共线的预制裂隙介质裂纹扩展速度、加速度、裂纹尖端动态应力强度因子和动态能量释放率的变化规律以及它们之间的变化关系。试验结果表明,在爆炸应力波作用下裂隙两端产生了两条翼裂纹A、B,翼裂纹A的长度较翼裂纹B长,两条翼裂纹向相反的方向扩展;在翼裂纹扩展过程中,存在着加速与减速的过程,扩展速度瞬间达到峰值,其后逐渐振荡下降;动态应力强度因子也呈现瞬间达最大值到逐渐减小连续振荡变化的趋势,动态应力强度因子 > ;翼裂纹尖端的动态能量释放率对裂纹扩展具有驱动作用。     

鸟蛤苗种培育及增养殖技术

通过对鸟蛤（Cardium sp．）的生物学研究,进行了苗种培育、稚贝中间培育、养成、增殖技术的综合系统研究,探明了鸟蛤的生态分布、食性、繁殖习性、生长发育、埋栖及移动生态等生物学特性,报道了鸟蛤人工苗种培育及增养殖技术措施,系统地提出了鸟蛤苗种控温培育及增养殖技术工艺流程与操作规范。     

神经网络BP算法在GPS高程转换中粗差探测的尝试

引入神经网络的BP算法中稳定、收敛速度快的Levenberg—Marquardt算法,进行GPS高程转换中的粗差探测,提出了LM粗差探测法。通过实验做出分析比较,得出了实用可行的计算方法。     

裂土裂隙演化过程试验研究

裂土的裂隙是影响其工程性质的重要因素。为研究土体裂隙在外界环境变化条件下的演化过程,设计了一套精确控制湿度的试验装置,再现了裂土在脱湿情况下裂隙产生、传播、扩展的过程。对试验结果进行了理论分析,总结了试验中裂土裂隙出现、传播、扩展的规律。研究结果有助于加深对土体裂隙变化物理过程的认识,为处理工程问题提供思路。     

Error propagation in equations for geochemical modeling of radiogenic isotopes in two-component mixing

This paper presents error propagation equations for modeling of radiogenic isotopes during mixing of two components or end-members. These equations can be used to estimate errors on an isotopic ratio in the mixture of two components, as a function of the analytical errors or the total errors of geological field sampling and analytical errors. Two typical cases (“Small errors” and “Large errors”) are illustrated for mixing of Sr isotopes. Similar examples can be formulated for the other radiogenic isotopic ratios. Actual isotopic data for sediment and basalt samples from the Cocos plate are also included to further illustrate the use of these equations. The isotopic compositions of the predicted mixtures can be used to constrain the origin of magmas in the central part of the Mexican Volcanic Belt. These examples show the need of high quality experimental data for them to be useful in geochemical modeling of magmatic processes.     

The 1997 Umbria-Marche (Italy) earthquake sequence: analysis of the data recorded by the local and temporary networks

We present some preliminary results obtained from thejoined analysis of the data collected by the permanentand the temporary networks operating in the area ofthe earthquake sequence that followed (andanticipated) the 26 September, Central Italy, mainshocks. In particular, these earthquake data haveallowed us to determine a well constrainedwave-velocity model (both P and S) with stationcorrections which demonstrated to produce robusthypocentral locations. These velocity modelswith station corrections have been used forre-locating the whole September 1997–July 1998subset of data of the permanent network, and theprevious background seismicity, starting from May1996. The focal mechanisms of the largest events werealso obtained from an analysis of the first-motionpolarities.Our results indicate that 1) the seismic activityaligns on a SE-NW trend for a total length of about50 km of extension; 2) the focal depth of theseevents is restricted to the range 0–9 km; 3) mostevents can be related to sub-parallel SW dipping faultplanes; 4) focal mechanisms of the largest shocks(M_L > 4) show a coherent behaviour, withnormal fault solution on SSE-NNW striking, SW dippingplanes; 5) the space-time evolution of the activitydisplays a discontinuous mode of energy release, withdifferent episodes of activation and an apparentclustering of aftershocks at the edges of the areaswhich presumably ruptured in the main shocks.     

Complex site effects and building codes: Making the leap

The engineering community is aware of the importance of site effects, but it lags behind seismological studies when it comes to incorporating site effect considerations in design spectra for seismic norms. This lag is reflected in the conspicuous fact that current building codes make allowance for 1D site effects but ignore complex site effects. The purpose of this paper is to explore a way for including complex site effects in a building code environment. We take as example Eurocode 8, which is a modern code that exemplifies the current approach to site effect consideration. We examine the restrictions that we have imposed to make the problem of a feasible size and discuss the approach we have taken. We propose a strategy to incorporate a class of complex site effects in a design elastic spectrum.     

极隙区Pc3频段脉动的传播特性

南极中山站和戴维斯站 (不变磁纬 74.5°S)白天中午位于磁层极隙区 ,夜间位于极盖区或极光带的极向边沿。两站均安装了完全相同的感应式磁力计。选择两站 1 997年 3月和 1 996年 6、9、1 2月的数据 ,运用快速傅立叶变换和波形检查方法选择 Pc3频段脉动事件 ,然后用信号互谱技术进行统计分析 ,结果如下 :在中山站 -戴维斯站 ,Pc3频段脉动主要出现于白天中午 /磁中午和磁午夜附近 ;白天 ,Pc3频段脉动振幅、出现率和出现的时间范围均有一定的季节变化 ,冬季最小 ,但在夜间 ,Pc3频段脉动没有这种变化 ;夜间 ,Pc3频段脉动振幅比在白天大许多 ;Pc3频段脉动传播方向 ,白天主要向西 ,夜间不太规则。这些可能反映了电离层电导率和日侧电离层电流系统对 Pc3频段脉动的影响。